Interesting, albeit speculative, discussion on how to respond to the HBS essay prompt. I really do believe there is no one-size-fits-all format for this essay. You could always hypothesize an effective approach based on data, but more often than not your sample size is likely to be rather small and your conclusion could ignore other context specific data. Take away: Stop speculating! Answer the question as honestly as possible in a way that you think enhances your candidacy as a potential leader in international business. Send it in and then get on with life
I think it warrants reminding that 90% of your "odds" (if not more) are set well before you start this essay, so give it your best shot and let it go.
My approach was to use a personal story (within a professional context - exit/sale of my start-up) that hit two points (i) answer the WHY to each career move (ii) explain how I developed my aspirations and what I hope to accomplish as a leader in international business.
An idle mind is the devil's workshop. I know the waiting is hard (for me too!) but let's not go crazy speculating! HBS is a means to an end, so let's not take our eye of the proverbial ball!