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In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by

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Re: In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Aug 2017, 03:46
GMATNinjaTwo,

How did you infer that those 2 precursors were 'time' and 'place' as mentioned in Option C? In my opinion, A looks to be the clear winner.

Thanks.
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Re: In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Aug 2017, 05:17
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KS15 wrote:
GMATNinjaTwo,

How did you infer that those 2 precursors were 'time' and 'place' as mentioned in Option C? In my opinion, A looks to be the clear winner.

Thanks.

Quote:
(Book Question: 16)
The author implies which of the following about the ability of the researchers mentioned in line 18 to predict earthquakes?

A. They can identify when an earthquake is likely to occur but not how large it will be.
B. They can identify the regions where earthquakes are likely to occur but not when they will occur.
C. They are unable to determine either the time or the place that earthquakes are likely to occur.
D. They are likely to be more accurate at short-term earthquake prediction than at long-term earthquake prediction.
E. They can determine the regions where earthquakes have occurred in the past but not the regions where they are likely to occur in the future.

The passage states that "these foreshocks [that precede most large earthquakes] indicate nothing about the magnitude of an impending quake and are indistinguishable from other minor tremors that occur without large earthquakes."

Thus, the researchers cannot use foreshocks (precursory phenomena) to predict earthquakes. A foreshock could be followed by a large earthquake, a small earthquake, or no earthquake at all. Thus, the foreshocks do not give us any information about the time or place that earthquakes are likely to occur.

In other words, if a phenomena gives you no information about whether an earthquake will occur, then obviously it does not give you any information about the time or place that an earthquake will occur. Although "time" and "place" are not specifically cited, we can infer this from the statements in the passage.

Refer to my earlier post for additional analysis of this question and an explanation of why choice (A) is wrong: https://gmatclub.com/forum/in-1971-rese ... l#p1835521.
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Re: In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by  [#permalink]

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New post 17 Aug 2017, 06:57
anuj11 wrote:
Can some one explain question 13 ? I cant distinguish between C and E !! Ended up picking C

Quote:
(Book Question: 13)
It can be inferred from the passage that one problem with using precursory phenomena to predict earthquakes is that minor tremors

A. typically occur some distance from the sites of the large earthquakes that follow them
B. are directly linked to the mechanisms that cause earthquakes
C. are difficult to distinguish from major tremors
D. have proven difficult to measure accurately
E. are not always followed by large earthquakes

The key lies in this portion of the passage:

Quote:
while the historical record confirms
that most large earthquakes are preceded by minor
tremors, these foreshocks indicate nothing about
the magnitude of an impending quake and are
(25)
indistinguishable from other minor tremors that occur
without large earthquakes.

Most large earthquakes are preceded by minor tremors. Does that mean whenever we observe a minor tremor, we can predict that a large earthquake will occur? .... unfortunately not, because those minor tremors are indistinguishable from minor tremors that occur without large earthquakes. In other words, we have no idea whether a minor tremor will be followed by a large earthquake.

As for choice (C), the passage does not say that minor tremors are difficult to distinguish from major tremors. Regardless, unlike choice (E), this does not describe the problem with using precursory phenomena to predict earthquakes.

I hope that helps!
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Re: In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Nov 2017, 18:06
Vyshak wrote:
alpham wrote:
Can someone explain why the primarily purpose is D and not E? I thought it was more about the development of methods rather than the shortcomings of methods.


The passage discusses two methods for predicting earthquakes and suggests that both the methods are not accurate - Answer has to be D.

Now lets look at why E is wrong:
E. describing the development of methods for establishing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes - Are the two methods limited to establishing patterns of past earthquakes? No. Moreover development of methods is a positive tone. But the passage is not too optimistic about the methods suggested. E cannot be the answer.


What words, or signals you look for to identify the positive tone of the passage?
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Re: In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Nov 2017, 18:07
alpham wrote:
Can someone explain why the primarily purpose is D and not E? I thought it was more about the development of methods rather than the shortcomings of methods.


I marked E too but now I understand that the development of the second method is not what has been discussed in the passage.
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In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Dec 2017, 10:41
Nice passage . All correct , Took 11 mins 30 seconds, including 5 mins 30 seconds to read the passage .
AjiteshArun , mikemcgarry ,GMATNinja , ccooley , GMATNinjaTwo , egmat , other experts -- can you please help in Q11(First question)--

I quickly narrowed down to option D and E , but was not confident of the selected answer -- Is option D better because the main intent of researchers has been to predict the occurrence of earthquakes, not establishing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes?

D. discussing the deficiency of two methods by which researchers have attempted to predict the occurrence of earthquakes
E. describing the development of methods for establishing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes
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Re: In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Dec 2017, 18:18
Skywalker18 wrote:
(Book Question: 11)
The passage is primarily concerned with

A. explaining why one method of earthquake prediction has proven more practicable than an alternative method
B. suggesting that accurate earthquake forecasting must combine elements of long-term and short-term prediction
C. challenging the usefulness of dilatancy theory for explaining the occurrence of precursory phenomena
D. discussing the deficiency of two methods by which researchers have attempted to predict the occurrence of earthquakes
E. describing the development of methods for establishing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes

Skywalker18 wrote:
Nice passage . All correct , Took 11 mins 30 seconds, including 5 mins 30 seconds to read the passage .
AjiteshArun , mikemcgarry ,GMATNinja , ccooley , GMATNinjaTwo , egmat , other experts -- can you please help in Q11(First question)--

I quickly narrowed down to option D and E , but was not confident of the selected answer -- Is option D better because the main intent of researchers has been to predict the occurrence of earthquakes, not establishing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes?

D. discussing the deficiency of two methods by which researchers have attempted to predict the occurrence of earthquakes
E. describing the development of methods for establishing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes

Skywalker18, your reasoning looks good!

We are looking for the primary purpose of the passage, so we need to identify the main intent of the author, not of the researchers. The author describes two failed methods attempted by researchers: one tried in 1971 and the other tried in the 1980s.

As you noted, the goal of those methods (and of the researchers) was to predict earthquakes (the first was geared towards short-term prediction and the other was geared towards long-term prediction). The author explains how those methods failed. Thus, the author's intention was to discuss the deficiency of those two methods.

The second method did involve analyzing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes. But did the passage discuss the methods that were used to establish those patterns? No, and even if it did, those patterns do not represent the main purpose of the passage. Rather, the patterns are just background information that the author gives in order to show how that second method failed.

Choice (D) the best answer.

I hope that helps!
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Re: In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Oct 2018, 19:17
P1 - for anticipating earthquake, a theory is given. what it is based on is given.
P2 - above theory is not that effective. reasons are given.
P3 - new theory is given with new aims. this one is also flop.

(Book Question: 11)
The passage is primarily concerned with

A. explaining why one method of earthquake prediction has proven more practicable than an alternative method - no
B. suggesting that accurate earthquake forecasting must combine elements of long-term and short-term prediction - p3 only
C. challenging the usefulness of dilatancy theory for explaining the occurrence of precursory phenomena - p1 + p2
D. discussing the deficiency of two methods by which researchers have attempted to predict the occurrence of earthquakes - best of the lot.
E. describing the development of methods for establishing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes - no

----------------------------------------------
(Book Question: 12)
According to the passage, laboratory evidence concerning the effects of stress on rocks might help account for

According to this theory, such effects could lead to several precursory phenomena in (15) the field, including a change in the velocity of seismic waves, and an increase in small, nearby tremors.

B. certain phenomena that occur prior to earthquakes -

----------------------------------------------
(Book Question: 13)
It can be inferred from the passage that one problem with using precursory phenomena to predict earthquakes is that minor tremors
P2 - these foreshocks indicate nothing about the magnitude of an impending quake and are (25) indistinguishable from other minor tremors that occur without large earthquakes.

E. are not always followed by large earthquakes -
----------------------------------------------
(Book Question: 14)
According to the passage, some researchers based their research about long-term earthquake prediction on which of the following facts?
P3 - Lindh and Baker attempted to identify patterns of recurrence, or earthquake cycles, on which to base predictions.

C. Some regions tend to be the site of numerous earthquakes over the course of many years. -

----------------------------------------------

(Book Question: 15)
The passage suggests which of the following about the paleoseismologists’ findings described in lines 42–50?

40) earthquake cycles that Lindh and Baker tried to establish has come from a relatively new field, paleoseismology. Paleoseismologists have unearthed and dated geological features such as fault scarps that were caused by (45) earthquakes thousands of years ago. They have determined that the average interval between ten earthquakes that took place at one site along the San Andreas Fault in the past two millennia was 132 years, but individual intervals ranged greatly, (50) from 44 to 332 years.
PT - that long term prediction is not useful.

D. They suggest that the recurrence of earthquakes in earthquake-prone sites is too irregular to serve as a basis for earthquake prediction. -
----------------------------------------------

(Book Question: 16)
The author implies which of the following about the ability of the researchers mentioned in line 18 to predict earthquakes?

C. They are unable to determine either the time or the place that earthquakes are likely to occur. - yes
----------------------------------------------
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Re: In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by &nbs [#permalink] 01 Oct 2018, 19:17

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