Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are

I wrongly selected C as the answer and needed some clarification on how the following thought process is incorrect/less suitable:

Since ‘growers often hold back part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses for one or two years hoping for higher prices in the future’

And given C) pecan prices have not been subject to SHARP fluctuations in recent years

Can we not conclude that growers hold back some of the produce in their first year of low harvest (smallest in five years according to the question) because prices do not fluctuate rapidly and will take time to reach their highest which is when the growers would want to sell?

Thanks in advance


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Can you plz help me understand why my below reasoning is incorrect ?

For option C,

I think that there was no price changes plus this year production is low so it does not make sense to sell all production at steady price. Instead, farmer would prefer to store this year's low production in order to create scarcity in the market. Scarcity will lead to price increase and then sell the available stock (Available stock could be already available of last few years too. The low production of this year should be indication for producers to hold stock that leads to price increase).

Jay

From the passage we know that "the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant," so pecan growers hold back part of their crop "in high yield years." This is the case in which we would expect farmers to hold back a portion of their crop.

The problem with (C) is that it does not tell us that the farmers are experiencing a "high yield year" -- it just tells us that prices have not fluctuated sharply in recent years. Perhaps pecans were already "comparatively scarce" in the preceding years, and pecans had been selling at a stable, high price. Because this year's crop is the smallest in five years, pecan farmers could sell their entire crop and still command a high price. In this case, it would not make sense to hold back a portion of their crop. For this reason, (C) does not complete the argument.

(A), on the other hand, provides excellent justification for the farmers to hold back part of their crop despite the lowest yield in five years, as described in this post.

I hope that helps!

Easy (A), IMO

(A) each of the last two years produced record breaking pecan yields - PERFECT, this fits in aptly, but before marking this as correct, let's hold onto this.

(B) the quality of this year's pecan crop is no worse than the quality of the pecan crops of the previous five years - MEH. OUT OF SCOPE.

(C) pecan prices have not been subject to sharp fluctuations in recent years - AND WHAT ABOUT THIS YEAR?

(D) for some pecan growers, this year's crop was no smaller than last year's - OUT OF SCOPE

(E) the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widespread the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year - The ONLY close choice, but on reading thoroughly, not any difficult to eliminate.

And hence, we're only left with (A) which is our correct answer choice.

It's language shift

Smallest doesn't mean low.

This might resolve the discrepancy

Let me try to elaborate on some of the responses made already.

Which of the following most logically completes the passage?

Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are comparatively scarce, but the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant. Thus, in high-yield years, growers often hold back part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses for one or two years, hoping for higher prices in the future. This year's pecan crop was the smallest in five years. It is nonetheless quite possible that a portion of this year's crop will be held back, since ________.


(A) each of the last two years produced record breaking pecan yields
Correct. So I think the thinking here is the following. We know that historically that an abundance of pecans tanks the price of the pecans...the fact that there were "record-breaking" yields in the two prior years suggests that the growers already have a ton as is even though the yield this year is the smallest. Presumably those yields in the past would be the first to go to prevent them from being spoiled.

(B) the quality of this year's pecan crop is no worse than the quality of the pecan crops of the previous five years X
Quality is certainly not mentioned in the passage, but let's build on that a little bit anyway
The fact that this year's crop is NO WORSE than the quality of the previous five years suggests its just as suitable for sale...so it doesn't make sense that the growers would hold back and store this new yield. Wrong direction.

(C) pecan prices have not been subject to sharp fluctuations in recent years X
The passage says otherwise...and suppose they weren't subject to these price fluctuations, why would the growers have to be worried about holding back then? Concerns about supply and price are vanquished (at least in a vacuum).

(D) for some pecan growers, this year's crop was no smaller than last year's
From the wording in the passage, it seems that the focus is on all pecan growers, or at least a much larger subset of growers, relative to the number of growers in this choice...so the question is why are these growers in general holding back?

(E) the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widespread the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year
-the past is not relevant to something that is occurring in the present case.

Chris can you make the argument that since the previous years were high yield that the pecans from those years would constitute the first batch being sold? Hence it doesn't make sense to get rid of the new yield first?

Hi KarishmaB

2 questions

In option A, if there is already a lot of crop available in the store, courtesy of bumper crop production in last 2 years, why is there a need to store additional crop ? That would only add more crop to the inventory. How is the huge production of crop in previous years a driving force for the farmers to store even more this year ?

If we consider option C, it says there have been less fluctuations. Now that would mean that prices have remained more or less the same regardless of the crop available for sale. If we somehow manage to reduce the supply even more, there is a chance that the prices would rise and so would the profit to the farmers. Shouldn't this be a more compelling reason to store crops this year ?

We are given that pecans are stored for one or two years. Since it is a food item, we can assume that it is perishable so the farmers store it for 1-2 years. They would want to sell it off next year or next to next year. They just hope that next year if the yield is lower, the stored crop will add to it to make it regular yield and hence regular price. Then they don't need to sell all pecans this year at a low price.

For (A), if there is already a lot of the crop available from last two years, that will need to be sold off this year. Added to this year's crop, it might make a bumper crop so a part of this year's crop will need to be stored.

As for (C), the highlighted in your comment above is not correct. We are given: "Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are comparatively scarce, but the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant." We must take this to be true. If in the last few years, the prices have remained stable, it just means that the amount of crop available for sale has been relatively stable in the last few years. It doesn't explain why a part of this year's lower yield will be held back.

We are given that pecans are stored for one or two years. Since it is a food item, we can assume that it is perishable so the farmers store it for 1-2 years. They would want to sell it off next year or next to next year. They just hope that next year if the yield is lower, the stored crop will add to it to make it regular yield and hence regular price. Then they don't need to sell all pecans this year at a low price.

For (A), if there is already a lot of the crop available from last two years, that will need to be sold off this year. Added to this year's crop, it might make a bumper crop so a part of this year's crop will need to be stored.

As for (C), the highlighted in your comment above is not correct. We are given: "Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are comparatively scarce, but the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant." We must take this to be true. If in the last few years, the prices have remained stable, it just means that the amount of crop available for sale has been relatively stable in the last few years. It doesn't explain why a part of this year's lower yield will be held back.[/quote]

Mam, May you plz check your messages I have sent a message

Hi Experts,

Please can you help me with the below query,

As per the last line of the passage " It is nonetheless quite possible that a portion of this year's crop will be held back". Since we are stating that a portion will be held back, I selected Option D because as per the option " for some pecan growers, this year's crop was no smaller than last year's". Thus there is a possibility that last year there was an abundant production & farmer held back some of the crop production and as this year's harvest is in proportion to last year harvest, some farmers like last year will hold back some of the crops.

Thanks

Here's the thing.

The passage states, "in high-yield years, growers often hold back part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses for one or two years, hoping for higher prices in the future"

"High-yield years" are years when the ENTIRE crop is large, not when SOME FARMERS' crops are large. After all, even if some farmers had large crops, if the overall crop were small, then prices would likely be high. So, there would be no reason for farmers with large crops to hold back part of their crop. What would make sense is for them to sell at the high prices that likely would prevail if the overall crop were small.

Now, regarding this year, the passage states, "This year's pecan crop was the smallest in five years."

So, we can see that what (D) says would not be a reason why "a portion of this year's crop will be held back." After all, even if as (D) says, "for some pecan growers, this year's crop was no smaller than last year's," it would still make sense for those growers to sell all the pecans they had at the high prices that we would expect to prevail in a year in which the pecan crop was the smallest in five years.

Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are comparatively scarce, but the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant.
Scarce crop –> High Price
Abundant crop –> Low price

Pecan seems to follow the standard demand-supply principles.
↑ Supply –> ↓ Price
↓ Supply –> ↑ Price

Thus, in high-yield years, growers often hold back part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses for one or two years, hoping for higher prices in the future.
“high-yield years”: high supply years

In high-yield years, growers often hold back a portion of their crop.
Why?
In the hopes that they will be able to sell at higher prices in the future.
(So, I guess pecan doesn’t get spoiled in a couple of years of refrigeration)

This year’s pecan crop was the smallest in five years. – Current year’s yield was the lowest in five years.
(Doesn’t necessarily mean that the yield was low in absolute terms. Just that it was lower than in each of the previous years’.)

It is nonetheless quite possible that a portion of this year’s crop will be held back, since _________. – “nonetheless” expresses a contrast. What is the contrast?
Despite the crop being the smallest in five years, a portion of this year’s crop may still be held back.





Which of the following most logically completes the passage?

The passage mentions two contrasting ideas. On the one hand, the yield this year was the smallest in five years. Yet, on the other, a portion of this year’s crop might be held back. The word ‘since’ in the end tells us that we have to find a potential reason for why despite the lowest yield in five years, a portion of this year’s pecan crop may be held back. Basically, we’re looking for an answer choice that will help resolve this confusion.

Potential reasons:
1. Maybe the overall supply is still too high.

a. There could be pecan still stored from previous years. The growers would want to clear that first.
b. Lowest in five years could still mean a high-yield. So maybe this year’s yield is still greater than the demand.

2. Maybe the demand has shrunk. So, even though the supply reduced, the demand may have reduced more significantly.

Notice the phrase ‘quite possible’ in the last sentence. The phrase tells us that we’re looking for an answer choice that could potentially be a reason. We don’t need the correct answer choice to give us certainty.




A. each of the last two years produced record-breaking pecan yields
Correct. This one fits.
If the previous two years had extremely high yields of pecan (record-breaking), probably some crop is stored in refrigeration from these years. Growers would likely want to clear their old stock before selling the new one.
Also, if at least two of the last five years had record-breaking yields, I’m even more inclined to believe that the current year’s yield was perhaps not low in absolute terms – just lower.

So, If each of the last two years produced very high pecan yields, that could be a potential reason to hold back a portion of this year’s crop.

B. the quality of this year's pecan crop is no worse than the quality of the pecan crops of the previous five years
Incorrect. The quality of this year’s pecan yield is at-par with (or maybe even better than) the previous five years’ pecan yield.
So what?
The quality could be related to consumers’ willingness to buy.
However, I do not see a relation between holding back a portion of this year’s yield and its quality. Reject.

C. pecan prices have not been subject to sharp fluctuations in recent years
Incorrect. Statement: The prices of pecan have not fluctuated sharply in recent years.
1. We don’t know why the prices didn’t fluctuate.
a. It could be that the yield every year was roughly the same.
b. Or that the growers maintained the prices by storing portions of the yields, or by using pecans from storage.

2. Had the option told us that the prices have been significantly low, we could see that as a potential reason to hold back a portion of the crop this year. However, we don’t even learn whether the price levels have been low or high. The prices have not fluctuated sharply just means that the price has remained quite consistent. We don’t know at what levels.

Simply learning that there haven’t been sharp fluctuations in prices does not help us understand why a portion might be held back this year.

D. for some pecan growers, this year's crop was no smaller than last year's
Incorrect. Well, we know that the overall yield was the smallest in five years. The passage deals with scarcity and abundance of pecan overall in the market, and not with yields of individual growers.

“when pecans are comparatively scarce” and “when pecans are abundant”: both these phrases deal with overall pecan supply, not with yields of individual growers. A “high-yield year” would be one when the overall supply is high.

We’re not concerned with individual growers’ yields.

E. the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widespread the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year
Incorrect. So maybe this practice is not very old.
But, why might a portion of this year’s crop be held back despite the lowest yield in five years?
I don’t see any reason that could help explain that dichotomy.



The passage talks about storing a portion of this year’s crop as a “quite possible outcome”. We are not looking for an answer that confirms that a portion will be stored, just an answer choice that will help us understand why a portion might be stored.

Some flawed reasons I have seen to reject answer choice A:

• “The option compares the yield with previous years’. We only care about the current year.” – Essentially, the passage talks about X, the option talks about Y. Therefore, the option is wrong. That on its own is not a good enough reason to reject an answer. In this case, for example, we still need to check whether the answer choice gives a potential reason for storing a portion of this year’s yield. As it turns out, it does.
• “It uses very strong language: ‘record-breaking’. Answers choices with such extreme language are usually wrong, Therefore, this one Is wrong as well.” There is no such rule that answer choices that use strong/ extreme language are wrong. While such options could of course be wrong, there will have to be an underlying reason for why that’s the case.

My Take,

All the refrigerated or stored harvest of the last two years' record-breaking would be sold off this year to take the benefits of soaring high prices of this year's shortage. And as a practice, this year harvest (some portion of it atleast) would be kept safe for next years.

The passage states that pecan growers hold back part of their crop when pecans are scarce to get higher prices. This year's pecan crop is the smallest in five years. To complete the passage logically, we need a reason why a portion of this year's crop might still be held back, despite it being small.

Option (A) states, "each of the last two years produced record-breaking pecan yields." This information does provide a logical reason why pecan growers would hold back a portion of this year's crop when it's small. It suggests that the last two years have seen abundant pecan yields, which typically results in lower prices and to raise the price the yield has to be held back.