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# There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week

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Math Expert
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There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week  [#permalink]

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02 Jul 2018, 05:58
00:00

Difficulty:

75% (hard)

Question Stats:

50% (02:02) correct 50% (01:50) wrong based on 138 sessions

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There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week. However, every previous reshuffle that the Premier has made was preceded by meetings between the Premier and senior cabinet members. No such meetings have occurred or are planned. Therefore the rumors are most likely false.

Which one of the following most accurately expresses a principle of reasoning employed by the argument?

(A) When a conclusion follows logically from a set of premises, the probability that the conclusion is true cannot be any less than the probability that the premises are all true.

(B) A hypothesis is undermined when a state of affairs does not obtain that would be expected to obtain if the hypothesis were true.

(C) It is possible for a hypothesis to be false even though it is supported by all the available data.

(D) Even if in the past a phenomenon was caused by particular circumstances, it is erroneous to assume that the phenomenon will recur only under the circumstances in which it previously occurred.

(E) If two statements are known to be inconsistent with each other and if one of the statements is known to be false, it cannot be deduced from these known facts that the other statement is true

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Re: There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week  [#permalink]

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03 Jul 2018, 06:23
Can someone help me to understand this ? I chose D
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Re: There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week  [#permalink]

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03 Jul 2018, 06:50
prags1989 wrote:
Can someone help me to understand this ? I chose D

Even if in the past a phenomenon was caused by particular circumstances, it is erroneous to assume that the phenomenon will recur only under the circumstances in which it previously occurred.

Consider the following analogy:
Last year i sneezed during the passing of a cyclone, it is wrong to assume that i will sneeze only when a cyclone hits.

The Prompt says
There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week. However, every previous reshuffle that the Premier has made was preceded by meetings between the Premier and senior cabinet members. No such meetings have occurred or are planned. Therefore the rumors are most likely false.

In essence this means that cabinet reshuffles when an unplanned meeting is held. Because the meeting is unplanned, it is unlikely that anyone except the people involved in the meeting would know anything about it. The first line indicates that a meeting will be held next week when the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet. But from the past knowledge, we know that cabinet is not reshuffled in a planned meeting. Therefore the rumours/rumors are FALSE.

Hope this helps clarify your doubt.

Regards,
V
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Re: There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week  [#permalink]

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03 Jul 2018, 07:06
Line of argument of D actually refutes the claim made by the author that the rumours are most likely false albeit rumours could also be true.

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Re: There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week  [#permalink]

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03 Jul 2018, 10:49
Correctly establishing the line of reasoning employed in the argument

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Re: There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week  [#permalink]

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04 Jul 2018, 03:50
(A) When a conclusion follows logically from a set of premises, the probability that the conclusion is true cannot be any less than the probability that the premises are all true. -the argument does not talk about any probability.

(B) A hypothesis is undermined when a state of affairs does not obtain that would be expected to obtain if the hypothesis were true. - thus explains the line of reasoning. Hold.

(C) It is possible for a hypothesis to be false even though it is supported by all the available data. - incorrect.

(D) Even if in the past a phenomenon was caused by particular circumstances, it is erroneous to assume that the phenomenon will recur only under the circumstances in which it previously occurred. - actually opposite of the actual scenario.

(E) If two statements are known to be inconsistent with each other and if one of the statements is known to be false, it cannot be deduced from these known facts that the other statement is true - no inconsistency has been reflected in the premises of the argument.

Thus, B is the best.

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Re: There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week  [#permalink]

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07 Jul 2018, 10:10
gilltaurus wrote:
Correctly establishing the line of reasoning employed in the argument

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A seems to be the best among all ...

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Re: There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week  [#permalink]

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07 Jul 2018, 22:24
Method of reasoning is very much like BOLD FACE with respect to the approach.

In BOLD FACE we assign each sentences particular roles played by them in the argument. Same it is for the MOR.

There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week(Claim/statement). However, every previous reshuffle that the Premier has made was preceded by meetings between the Premier and senior cabinet members(fact). No such meetings have occurred or are planned(fact). Therefore the rumors are most likely false(conclusion).

Structure- Claim>> Facts against the claim >> Conclusion against the claim.

A) When a conclusion follows logically from a set of premises, the probability that the conclusion is true cannot be any less than the probability that the premises are all true. >> Not all the premises are true here. This option calls the claim(1st st.) a premise and hence does not take into account the change of direction in the argument.

(B) A hypothesis is undermined when a state of affairs does not obtain that would be expected to obtain if the hypothesis were true. - CORRECT- 1. A hypothesis- The first claim of the argument>> undermined- both facts go against the hypo.>> when a state of affairs does not obtain that would be expected to obtain if the hypothesis were true.-statement 2 and 3 tell us the usual protocol. But that did not happen.

(C) It is possible for a hypothesis to be false even though it is supported by all the available data.- There is no support for the hypothesis.

(D) Even if in the past a phenomenon was caused by particular circumstances, it is erroneous to assume that the phenomenon will recur only under the circumstances in which it previously occurred.- opposite to the conclusion. IF this were the structure then the conclusion would support the 1st claim.

(E) If two statements are known to be inconsistent with each other and if one of the statements is known to be false, it cannot be deduced from these known facts that the other statement is true- No statement is false here.
Re: There are rumors that the Premier will reshuffle the cabinet this week &nbs [#permalink] 07 Jul 2018, 22:24
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