A recent survey of women diagnosed with breast cancer found that 85 percent of them reported wearing a brassiere on a regular basis. One possible conclusion is that wearing a brassiere can cause breast cancer.
To evaluate the conclusion above, it would be useful to know the answer to all of the following questions EXCEPT:
Lets test the extreme cases for each choice. This should give us opposing answers.
A) Did the women surveyed have any known risk factors for breast cancer such as cigarette smoking, sedentary lifestyles or high-fat, high-cholesterol diets?
YES. the women surveyed have any known risk factors for breast cancer such as cigarette smoking, sedentary lifestyles or high-fat, high-cholesterol diets. That means we have a reason to believe that wearing brassiere does NOT cause breast cancer.
NO. the women surveyed did NOT have any known risk factors for breast cancer such as cigarette smoking, sedentary lifestyles or high-fat, high-cholesterol diets. That means we have a reason to believe that wearing brassiere does cause breast cancer.
Eliminate.
B) What is the percentage of women who report wearing a brassiere on a regular basis yet never develop breast cancer?
Say,
99% of women who report wearing a brassiere on a regular basis yet never develop breast cancer. That means we have a reason to believe that wearing brassiere does NOT cause breast cancer.
Say
1% of women who report wearing a brassiere on a regular basis yet never develop breast cancer. That means there are other majority of cases in which breast cancer has developed. So we have a reason to believe that wearing brassiere does cause breast cancer.
EliminateC) What is the percentage of women in the general population who report wearing a brassiere on a regular basis?
Although is E is completely irrelevant, I wanted to know why this choice was incorrect. Now I'm not so sure if my explanation is right but if I put some numbers here's what I found.
Also, here, we dont know how many women having breast cancer were actually surveyed. We will take hypothetical numbers. Please refer to the attached image in this case.
Women who have breast cancer = 200
Total women with and without breast cancer = 1000
Case (I)
Say there are
80% of women in the general population who report wearing a brassiere on a regular basis
We see that
Women who wear brassiere on regular basis but do not have breast cancer > Women who wear brassiere on regular basis and have breast cancer (630 > 170) Here, we have a reason to believe that wearing brassiere does not cause breast cancer.
Case (II)
Say there are only
20% of women in the general population who report wearing a brassiere on a regular basis.
We see that
Women who wear brassiere on regular basis but do not have breast cancer < Women who wear brassiere on regular basis and have breast cancer (30 < 170) Here, we have a reason to believe that wearing brassiere MAY cause breast cancer.
D) Given that a predisposition for breast cancer can be inherited, did the women surveyed have a family history of the disease?
Yes, the women surveyed have a family history of the disease. So maybe the breast cancer has inherited in these women.
No, the women surveyed did not have a family history of the disease. That means the cause might've been wearing brassiere itself.
Eliminate.
E) What percentage of women who report wearing a brassiere on a regular basis are diagnosed with other types of cancer?
Say,
99% of women who report wearing a brassiere on a regular basis are diagnosed with other types of cancer. For e.g. 99% woman wearing brassiere may have skin cancer and breast cancer.
and Say
1% of women who report wearing a brassiere on a regular basis are diagnosed with other types of cancer. For e.g. 1% woman wearing brassiere may have skin cancer and breast cancer.
But this DOES NOT rule out the possibility that wearing brassiere causes breast cancer in either of the above cases regardless of the percentage of diagnosis with other type of cancer.
CORRECT.
Attachments

anscr.PNG [ 11.3 KiB | Viewed 3721 times ]