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655-705 Level|   Probability|            
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A certain junior class has 1,000 students and a certain senior class has 800 students. Among these students, there are 60 siblings pairs, each consisting of 1 junior and 1 senior. If 1 student is to be selected at random from each class, what is the probability that the 2 students selected at will be a sibling pair?

A. 3/40,000
B. 1/3,600
C. 9/2,000
D. 1/60
E. 1/15

Hi chetan2u,

I'm getting a bit confused here.
So in this question we can pick 60 from any one of the 2 groups, so 60/(800) * 1/1000 so we get the correct answer.

But we don't divide this by 2 factorial which I understand because either we pick senior first junior next or vice versa and then add both and then divide it by 2 because its the same.

Another question, : There are 4 distinct pair of siblings, what are the possible number of cases to form a committee of 4 with no siblings:

Here I got the answer by using 1- (exactly one sibling + exactly 2 sibling ), but that was a bit lengthy, ans = 16

so another method that results in the same answer here is the foll: 8* 6 * 4 * 2/ 4!, here we divide by 4 factorial since the order doesn't matter and we get the correct answer 16.

I understand that we divide by 4! because we have essentially formed a permutation and since order doesn't matter the number of cases reduce,

but if that's the case, then why arent we dividing by 2! here ( in the above question)

Hi Karan911

The first question is of probability
\(\frac{60}{100}*\frac{1}{1000}\) can be written as \(\frac{60*1}{800*1000}=\frac{60C1*1C1}{800C1*1000C1}\)
So total ways = 800C1*1000C1
Favourable ways = 60C1*1C1

So, we are not taking order in favourable or total ways.

When we talk of ways to form a committee out of 4 distinct pair in such a way that all chosen are from distinct pairs.
We first pick any out of 8, say A1.
Now we don’t pick A2, so we have 6 to choose from hence 6C1.
So we choose ABCD.
But it is possible or rather surely we will have a case of BACD or ADCB
They are all repetitions as order does not matter, so we divide by 4!
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KarishmaB
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A certain junior class has 1,000 students and a certain senior class has 800 students. Among these students, there are 60 siblings pairs, each consisting of 1 junior and 1 senior. If i student is to be selected at random from each class, what is the probability that the 2 students selected at will be a sibling pair?

A. 3/40,000
B. 1/3,600
C. 9/2,000
D. 1/60
E. 1/15

Quote:

Responding to a pm: Why doesn't order matter here?

Check out this post: https://www.gmatclub.com/forum/veritas- ... er-matter/
It discusses a very similar situation.

Also, whether order matter or not depends on how you perceive it. In probability, you calculate P(A) = P(Favorable Outcomes)/P(Total Outcomes)

Where applicable, you can make the order matter in both numerator and denominator or not make it matter in both numerator and denominator. The answer will be the same.

This Question:

Order Matters:
Favorable outcomes = 60*1 + 60*1
Total outcomes = 1000*800 + 800*1000
P(A) = 3/40,000

Order doesn't matter:
Favorable outcomes = 60*1
Total outcomes = 1000*800
P(A) = 3/40,000

Another case: A bag has 4 balls - red, green, blue, pink (Equal probability of selecting each ball)
What is the probability that you pick two balls and they are red and green?

Order Matters:
Favorable outcomes = 2 (RG, GR)
Total outcomes = 4*3
P(A) = 1/6

Order doesn't matter:
Favorable outcomes = 1 (a red and a green)
Total outcomes = 4C2 = 6
P(A) = 1/6

Previous case: 2 red and 3 white balls. What is the probability that you pick two balls such that one is red and other is white?
In how many ways can you pick a red and a white ball? Here the probability of picking each ball is different. So we cannot cannot use our previous method. Here the probability of picking 2 red balls is not the same as that of picking a red and a white. Hence you have to consider the order to find the complete probability of picking a red and a white.

1) under what conditions ordering is considered? Pls correct if i m 100% correct? Pls add the correct approach.
KarishmaB GMATNinja Bunuel Elite097 avigutman ExpertsGlobal
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a) if selection is from different baskets /groups (independent events) -no ordering ,
if from same baskets (impacts probability of selection of other marble/dependent events)- ordering considered

b) if final outcome is universally same (here siblings can't be swapped) - no ordering
if final outcomes are different via different selection techniques (Red first then White, or White first then Red) - ordering considered
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KarishmaB
blog
A certain junior class has 1,000 students and a certain senior class has 800 students. Among these students, there are 60 siblings pairs, each consisting of 1 junior and 1 senior. If i student is to be selected at random from each class, what is the probability that the 2 students selected at will be a sibling pair?

A. 3/40,000
B. 1/3,600
C. 9/2,000
D. 1/60
E. 1/15

Quote:

Responding to a pm: Why doesn't order matter here?

Check out this post: https://www.gmatclub.com/forum/veritas- ... er-matter/
It discusses a very similar situation.

Also, whether order matter or not depends on how you perceive it. In probability, you calculate P(A) = P(Favorable Outcomes)/P(Total Outcomes)

Where applicable, you can make the order matter in both numerator and denominator or not make it matter in both numerator and denominator. The answer will be the same.

This Question:

Order Matters:
Favorable outcomes = 60*1 + 60*1
Total outcomes = 1000*800 + 800*1000
P(A) = 3/40,000

Order doesn't matter:
Favorable outcomes = 60*1
Total outcomes = 1000*800
P(A) = 3/40,000

Another case: A bag has 4 balls - red, green, blue, pink (Equal probability of selecting each ball)
What is the probability that you pick two balls and they are red and green?

Order Matters:
Favorable outcomes = 2 (RG, GR)
Total outcomes = 4*3
P(A) = 1/6

Order doesn't matter:
Favorable outcomes = 1 (a red and a green)
Total outcomes = 4C2 = 6
P(A) = 1/6

Previous case: 2 red and 3 white balls. What is the probability that you pick two balls such that one is red and other is white?
In how many ways can you pick a red and a white ball? Here the probability of picking each ball is different. So we cannot cannot use our previous method. Here the probability of picking 2 red balls is not the same as that of picking a red and a white. Hence you have to consider the order to find the complete probability of picking a red and a white.

1) under what conditions ordering is considered? Pls correct if i m 100% correct? Pls add the correct approach.
KarishmaB GMATNinja Bunuel Elite097 avigutman ExpertsGlobal
MartyTargetTestPrep

a) if selection is from different baskets /groups (independent events) -no ordering ,
if from same baskets (impacts probability of selection of other marble/dependent events)- ordering considered

b) if final outcome is universally same (here siblings can't be swapped) - no ordering
if final outcomes are different via different selection techniques (Red first then White, or White first then Red) - ordering considered

It is very hard to come up with a list of cases. It really depends on the exact question.

When dealing with probability, the thing to remember is that if you are ordering in the numerator, then order in the denominator too. If not, then don't consider the order in either.
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Hi Bunuel,

Why dont you include the other case as well where a Senior is picked first followed by a junior --> 60/800 * 1/1000.

Why doesn't your answer include this case?
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Hi @Bunuel, 

Why dont you include the other case as well where a Senior is picked first followed by a junior --> 60/800 * 1/1000.

Why doesn't your answer include this case?­
­
We usually multiply by the number of permutations to account for the order when selecting from single pool. However, in this case, we're selecting from different pools, so that is not needed: (sibling from seniors, sibling from juniors) is the same pair of siblings as (sibling from juniors, sibling from seniors).

For instance, if there are 2 blue and 3 red balls in a jar, the probability of selecting one blue and one red without replacement would be 2 * 2/5 * 3/4. However, if we have 2 blue and 3 green balls in one jar, and 3 red balls and 5 green balls in another, then the probability of selecting one blue from the first and one red from the second jar would be 2/5 * 3/8.

Hope it's clear.­
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