suv8080 wrote:
The reason why I think it is highly unlikely is the second wave has much smaller number of invitations and I believe the majority of it includes 2+2 applicants. I also checked forums for previous R2 second wave and it seemed like very few regular applicants received invitations and majority was 2+2. Moreoever, some people brought up the fact that the snow storm might have caused less number of invitations sent out in the first wave but the snow storm arrived only 2-3days prior to the invitation day and they had about a month to go over the applications so I am sure they had pretty good sense of who to invite. Any thoughts?
Just my 2 cents here:
1) gmatclub is just a sample, and not a random one at that;
2) Thinking of this like a gmat problem (
) : Assume that the number of applications review by the adcom is a linear function in time (this is reasonable, because they have the same number of staff and each week has the same number of business days); From the deadline until next wed = ~4 weeks; thus, we would expect that approximate 1/4 of the applications are reviewed each week between the submission deadline and the ding notification date (that's probably where Dee got the 600-200 split, by thinking about the total # of invites they project they'll extend in R2); there's nothing revealing here, it just gets at the point that they literally probably have not reviewed 1/4 of the applications meaning that there's a 25% shot our apps haven't even been reviewed yet as of yesterday, which a) certainly is not 0% (like some here seem to think) and b) is no different than at any point in the last month (for all four weeks, there's a 25% shot your app will be reviewed that week), so nothing has really changed.
^this is obviously over-the-top, but it's just me trying to put some numbers around what Dee means when she says that whether you hear this week or next means nothing about your app, but is all about their process (i.e., just because you didn't hear yesterday is not an indication that your probability of admission has somehow changed).