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705-805 Level|   Inference|   Must be True|                  
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 09 Jan 2022, 19:58
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jabhatta2

(i) Every driver would be likely to crash at some time
(ii) Every driver will crash at some time

Is there any difference between these two ?

Too me, both are one of the same
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jabhatta2 no.
"will happen" and "likely to happen" are NOT synonymous. There's a crucial difference in meaning. Please look up the definitions.

If I know that I'm likely to live past my 70th birthday, I'll still purchase a 20-year life insurance policy just in case - so that my family is taken care of.
If I know that I will live past my 70th birthday - well, that insurance policy is a complete waste of money!
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 09 Jan 2022, 20:47
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WinWinMBA
For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high degree of both international accord and ability to prevent goods from entering or leaving that country must be sustained. A total blockade of Patria's ports is necessary to an embargo, but such an action would be likely to cause international discord over the embargo.

The claims above, if true, most strongly support which of the following conclusions?


(A) The balance of opinion is likely to favor Patria in the event of a blockade.

(B) As long as international opinion is unanimously against Patria, a trade embargo is likely to succeed.

(C) A naval blockade of Patria's ports would ensure that no goods enter or leave Patria.

(D) Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.

(E) For a blockade of Patria's ports to be successful, international opinion must be unanimous.
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Already excellent explanation by KarishmaB. I chose (E) but realised 2 mistakes.

1. 'high degree accord' is not same as 'unanimous'
- The argument says a 'high degree of both international accord'. It can be 80%, it can be 90% but doesn't say it has to be completely unanimous.

2. Inference questions require something to be inferred.
- In E we can't infer that ' international opinion must be unanimous '. Even if it was written in argument, we can't infer the same thing.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 10 Jan 2022, 08:41
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Roy867
I chose (E) but realised 2 mistakes.

1. 'high degree accord' is not same as 'unanimous'
- The argument says a 'high degree of both international accord'. It can be 80%, it can be 90% but doesn't say it has to be completely unanimous.

2. Inference questions require something to be inferred.
- In E we can't infer that ' international opinion must be unanimous '. Even if it was written in argument, we can't infer the same thing.
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Roy867 Please also note that E is talking about what's necessary for a blockade to be successful, whereas the text only discusses what's necessary for an embargo to be successful.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 10 Jan 2022, 10:12
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avigutman
Roy867
I chose (E) but realised 2 mistakes.

1. 'high degree accord' is not same as 'unanimous'
- The argument says a 'high degree of both international accord'. It can be 80%, it can be 90% but doesn't say it has to be completely unanimous.

2. Inference questions require something to be inferred.
- In E we can't infer that ' international opinion must be unanimous '. Even if it was written in argument, we can't infer the same thing.

Roy867 Please also note that E is talking about what's necessary for a blockade to be successful, whereas the text only discusses what's necessary for an embargo to be successful.
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I think most people are confusing
- embargos
For
- blockades

Given the words are inter-changeable, i was confusing the two.

I was thinking the requirements for a succesful embargo are the same requirements for a succesful blockade - you need a high degree of international accord in both cases

In fact - the text doesnt mention anyhting about what it takes to have a succesfful blockade

Hence
Quote:

(option E variant # 1) For a blockade of Patria's ports to be successful, international opinion must be unanimous have high international accord = this variant of option E, would be wrong as well as we are not told anything about what it takes to have a succesfful blockade

(option E variant # 2) For a embargo blockade of Patria's ports to be successful, international opinion must have high international accord = this 2nd variant of option E would be right
Show more

Quote:

option C variant #1 ) A naval blockade of Patria's ports would ensure that no goods enter or leave Patria == well, a succesful blockade may or may not. We are not told anything about succesful blockades, we are told about succesful embargos

option C variant #2) A naval succesful embargo of Patria's ports would ensure that no goods enter or leave Patria == for a succesful embargo, you need "high degree" of blockage. The blockage doesnt have to be 100 %. Hence wrong.

option C variant #3) A naval succesful embargo of Patria's ports would ensure MOST goods do not enter or leave Patria == i think this is inferable
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 08 Aug 2022, 11:26
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^^ now according to option D -- all four attempts (A,B,C and D) are destined to fail (atleast per my understanding of option D)

However - i dont think its accurate to infer ALL 4 attempts will definitely fail.

Maybe during attempt # C in 2020 -- condition # 3 DID NOT lead to condition # 1 failing

Remember condition # 3 DOES NOT ALWAYS LEAD to condition # 1 failing.

So maybe Attempt # C in 2020 succeeded.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 08 Aug 2022, 15:45
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jabhatta2
^^ now according to option D -- all four attempts (A,B,C and D) are destined to fail (atleast per my understanding of option D)

However - i dont think its accurate to infer ALL 4 attempts will definitely fail.
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Please spot the difference and articulate the different meanings of these:
(D_Original) Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.
(D_Variation) Any trade embargo against Patria must fail.
I suspect that you interpreted D_Original as D_Variation, jabhatta2.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de Updated on: 08 Aug 2022, 17:00
Originally posted by jabhatta2 on 08 Aug 2022, 16:51.
Last edited by jabhatta2 on 08 Aug 2022, 17:00, edited 7 times in total.
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avigutman
jabhatta2
^^ now according to option D -- all four attempts (A,B,C and D) are destined to fail (atleast per my understanding of option D)

However - i dont think its accurate to infer ALL 4 attempts will definitely fail.
Please spot the difference and articulate the different meanings of these:
(D_Original) Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.
(D_Variation) Any trade embargo against Patria must fail.
I suspect that you interpreted D_Original as D_Variation, jabhatta2.
Show more

Here is response

Lets say there were a grand total of 4 attempts (attempt a | attempt b | attempt c | attempt d ) for a patria embargo

(D original)
Quote:

Regarding the 4 attempts
i) In all four attempts, there is a possibility of failure in any attempt
ii) Does that mean, at least one attempt failed ? no.
---> in fact, maybe all 4 attempts were successful
---> maybe all 4 attempts failed.

Bottom line -- in all 4 attempts; there is possibility of failure in every case.

However we dont know the actual result of attempt # 1 , attempt # 2, attempt # 3 and/or attempt # 4

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(D variation)
Quote:
between attempt a | attempt b | attempt c | attempt d --> all 4 occasions -- the embargo will fail, all 4 times.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 08 Aug 2022, 16:52
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When i wrote the original question - i think below my difficulty in expounding on the difference between these two

Quote:

(D_Original) Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.
(D_Variat 2) Every trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 08 Aug 2022, 16:59
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jabhatta2
When i wrote the original question - i think below my difficulty in expounding on the difference between these two

Quote:

(D_Original) Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.
(D_Variat 2) Every trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.
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D_Variat 2 is a correct rephrase of D_Original, jabhatta2.
Please let me know if you're still struggling to see how (D) is supported by the information provided.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 08 Aug 2022, 17:17
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jabhatta2
avigutman
jabhatta2
^^ now according to option D -- all four attempts (A,B,C and D) are destined to fail (atleast per my understanding of option D)

However - i dont think its accurate to infer ALL 4 attempts will definitely fail.
Please spot the difference and articulate the different meanings of these:
(D_Original) Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.
(D_Variation) Any trade embargo against Patria must fail.
I suspect that you interpreted D_Original as D_Variation, jabhatta2.

Here is response

Lets say there were a grand total of 4 attempts (attempt a | attempt b | attempt c | attempt d ) for a patria embargo

(D original)
Quote:

Regarding the 4 attempts
i) In all four attempts, there is a possibility of failure in any attempt
ii) Does that mean, at least one attempt failed ? no.
---> in fact, maybe all 4 attempts were successful
---> maybe all 4 attempts failed.

Bottom line -- in all 4 attempts; there is possibility of failure in every case.

However we dont know the actual result of attempt # 1 , attempt # 2, attempt # 3 and/or attempt # 4



(D variation)
Quote:
between attempt a | attempt b | attempt c | attempt d --> all 4 occasions -- the embargo will fail, all 4 times.
Show more

jabhatta2 "likely" is stronger than "there is a possibility" but not as strong as "must".
So D_Original makes the claim that every attempt of an embargo will probably fail.
By contrast, D_Variation makes the claim that every attempt of an embargo will definitely fail.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 09 Sep 2022, 22:55
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avigutman KarishmaB not clear on why not E? is there a difference between unanimous and accord and what is that? how is E against the passage (OG)? Is it wrong because of difference between unanimous and accord? as per me unanimous is a neutral word meaning collective vs accord is positive - harmony -- pls confirm this too and its impact
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 10 Sep 2022, 05:12
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Elite097
avigutman KarishmaB not clear on why not E? is there a difference between unanimous and accord and what is that? how is E against the passage (OG)? Is it wrong because of difference between unanimous and accord? as per me unanimous is a neutral word meaning collective vs accord is positive - harmony -- pls confirm this too and its impact
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First, take a close look at the question stem, Elite097:
Quote:
The claims above, if true, most strongly support which of the following conclusions?
Show more
With a question like that, we're looking for an answer that all the claims, when synthesized together, lead to. The overarching subject of the claims above is an embargo, not a blockade.
On top of that, (E) is just describing a necessary condition for a blockade of Patria's ports to be successful, and none of the claims above touches on what makes for a successful blockade! One of the claims above describes a necessary condition for an embargo against Patria, but we can't conclude from that ANYTHING about what's necessary for a successful blockade of Patria's ports.
So, if we're looking at the definitions of international accord vs. unanimous international opinion, we've already lost.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 15 Aug 2024, 04:48
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­AjiteshArun
The mistake I made in this Q is assume the line - That Patricia's port can be blocked as a premise and then added tat if the second condition is fulfilled by choosing option B then embargo is possible.

Can you explain how to avoid this mistake?
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 16 Oct 2024, 07:06
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TWO NECESSARY CONDITION FOR EMBARGO IS LIKELY CONTRADICTORY SO ITS LIKELY TO FAIL
WinWinMBA
For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high degree of both international accord and ability to prevent goods from entering or leaving that country must be sustained. A total blockade of Patria's ports is necessary to an embargo, but such an action would be likely to cause international discord over the embargo.

The claims above, if true, most strongly support which of the following conclusions?


(A) The balance of opinion is likely to favor Patria in the event of a blockade.

(B) As long as international opinion is unanimously against Patria, a trade embargo is likely to succeed.

(C) A naval blockade of Patria's ports would ensure that no goods enter or leave Patria.

(D) Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.

(E) For a blockade of Patria's ports to be successful, international opinion must be unanimous.
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For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high de 01 Jul 2025, 08:56
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But if if embargo will not happen then it is likely to favor the country, no?
KarishmaB


VeritasPrepKarishma

WinWinMBA
For a trade embargo against a particular country to succeed, a high degree of both international accord and ability to prevent goods from entering or leaving that country must be sustained. A total blockade of Patria's ports is necessary to an embargo, but such an action would be likely to cause international discord over the embargo.

The claims above, if true, most strongly support which of the following conclusions?


(A) The balance of opinion is likely to favor Patria in the event of a blockade.

(B) As long as international opinion is unanimously against Patria, a trade embargo is likely to succeed.

(C) A naval blockade of Patria's ports would ensure that no goods enter or leave Patria.

(D) Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely to fail at some time.

(E) For a blockade of Patria's ports to be successful, international opinion must be unanimous.
­

Let me point out an important concept used in this question - that of necessary conditions.

Premises:
- International accord and ability to prevent goods from moving are necessary for a trade embargo to succeed.
- A total blockade of Patria’s ports is necessary to an embargo (to prevent goods from moving)
- but such an action would be likely to cause international discord over the embargo.

Two conditions are necessary for embargo to be successful. One of these conditions, if met, is likely to make the other condition fail.

What can I conclude without looking at the options?
That trade embargo in Patria is likely to fail.

(A) The balance of opinion is likely to favor Patria in
the event of a blockade.
We cannot conclude whether opinion will favor Patria.

(B) As long as international opinion is unanimously
against Patria, a trade embargo is likely to
succeed.
No. We need to block the ports too if we want the embargo to succeed. International opinion is not enough.

(C) A naval blockade of Patria’s ports would ensure
that no goods enter or leave Patria.
No information about the effectiveness of naval blockade.

(D) Any trade embargo against Patria would be likely
to fail at some time.
Got it!

(E) For a blockade of Patria’s ports to be
successful, international opinion must be
unanimous.
We don't know what will ensure successful blockade. We just know that blockade is likely to cause discord.
Dear Karishma,

The answer is indeed D. However, your rejection of option E didn't convince me. We have been told what it takes to ensure a successful blockade. However, E talks about 'unanimity' in option against Patria, which is not the same as a high degree of international accord. As you well know, strong words like unanimous are generally a trap.
Use variables since the terminology might be confusing you.

Argument:
For T (trade embargo) to succeed, you need both A (international accord) and B (Blockade of movement of goods which implies blockade of ports, train lines outside the country etc)
But B (Blockade of ports) is likely to cause international discord (which means A will be destroyed).

Option (E) For a blockade of Patria’s ports to be successful, international opinion must be unanimous.

What your option (E) says is that for B to be successful, A must happen. Point is, the argument tells us nothing about what we need for B. It only tells us the repercussions of B (that A will not happen). We don't know what will make B successful in the first place. The argument says nothing about it. The argument only tells us what you need for T and that A will not happen if B happens. We have no idea about what is needed for B to be successful. So we cannot say that from the argument, option (E) must be true. Hence (E) is not the answer.­
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