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In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first

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In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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National Health Minister: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first diagnosed in our country. Since that time, our Centre for Disease Control has surveying doctors to track the virus’s progress. For the months of January-March, doctors treated an average of 6,000 cases per month, and then for the months April-June, that figure had risen to 8,500 diseases per month. This past month, the figure surpassed 9,000. We can conclude, then, that an increasing number of people contract the H4N2v strain of the flu each month.

The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the health minister’s argument?

(A)Have treatments for the H4N2v virus been successful in curing patients of the ailment?
(B)How many incidences of the H4N2v virus have gone untreated each month?
(C)Is the H4N2v strain of the flu more contagious than more-common strains of the flu?
(D)Are any of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period still being treated for the virus this month?
(E)Has the number of diagnosed cases of H4N2v been increasing in neighboring countries?

[Reveal] Spoiler: OE
The flaw in the given argument is a classic Critical Reasoning "these two things are similar, but not the same" piece of wordplay. The premises are about the number of H4N2v cases that doctors treated each month, while the conclusion talks about the number of people who contracted the virus. Can someone contract a virus without being treated for it? Of course. That, then constitutes a gap in logic: to strengthen the argument, you would want to show that the number of treatments is very similar to the number of cases, and to weaken it you would want to show the opposite, that the two numbers can vary widely.

Here the question asks which piece of information would be most useful to have, and so you want to find an answer that will help you better understand whether the number of treatments is a valid predictor of the number of cases that people contracted. Only answer choice B links the two, so B is the correct answer.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

Last edited by mitravanu on 05 Sep 2016, 08:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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New post 05 Sep 2016, 07:22
mitravanu wrote:
National Health Minister: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first diagnosed in our country. Since that time, our Centre for Disease Control has surveying doctors to track the virus’s progress. For the months of January-March, doctors treated an average of 6,000 cases per month, and then for the months April-June, that figure had risen to 8,500 diseases per month. This past month, the figure surpassed 9,000. We can conclude, then, that an increasing number of people contract the H4N2v strain of the flu each month.

The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the health minister’s argument?

(A)Have treatments for the H4N2v virus been successful in curing patients of the ailment?
(B)How many incidences of the H4N2v virus have gone untreated each month?
(C)Is the H4N2v strain of the flu more contagious than more-common strains of the flu?
(D)Are any of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period still being treated for the virus this month?
(E)Has the number of diagnosed cases of H4N2v been increasing in neighboring countries?


Kindly post the answer explanation also. I thought it was A.

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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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New post 05 Sep 2016, 07:59
mitravanu wrote:
National Health Minister: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first diagnosed in our country. Since that time, our Centre for Disease Control has surveying doctors to track the virus’s progress. For the months of January-March, doctors treated an average of 6,000 cases per month, and then for the months April-June, that figure had risen to 8,500 diseases per month. This past month, the figure surpassed 9,000. We can conclude, then, that an increasing number of people contract the H4N2v strain of the flu each month.

The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the health minister’s argument?

(A)Have treatments for the H4N2v virus been successful in curing patients of the ailment?
(B)How many incidences of the H4N2v virus have gone untreated each month?
(C)Is the H4N2v strain of the flu more contagious than more-common strains of the flu?
(D)Are any of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period still being treated for the virus this month?
(E)Has the number of diagnosed cases of H4N2v been increasing in neighboring countries?


Thought D was the answer as the conclusion is that an increasing number of people are contracting the disease
It is possible that the treatment takes more than a month , what if all the 8500 patients from June were continuing their treatment last month as well and only 500 new patients have contracted the disease in the last month

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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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New post 05 Sep 2016, 09:05
Can someone explain how is it B? I chose D

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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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B- This helps us to evaluate the argument whether the detected cases of virus are new or they are untreated cases which are getting added to the new cases. Suppose, in January-March, the cases were 100 but only 50 of them were treated. In April-June, 100 new cases were detected but from the previous quarter 50 cases were untreated so total cases which are untreated are 150. If this is the cases then it would weaken the argument otherwise strengthen.


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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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mitravanu wrote:
National Health Minister: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first diagnosed in our country. Since that time, our Centre for Disease Control has surveying doctors to track the virus’s progress. For the months of January-March, doctors treated an average of 6,000 cases per month, and then for the months April-June, that figure had risen to 8,500 diseases per month. This past month, the figure surpassed 9,000. We can conclude, then, that an increasing number of people contract the H4N2v strain of the flu each month.

The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the health minister’s argument?

(A)Have treatments for the H4N2v virus been successful in curing patients of the ailment?
(B)How many incidences of the H4N2v virus have gone untreated each month?
(C)Is the H4N2v strain of the flu more contagious than more-common strains of the flu?
(D)Are any of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period still being treated for the virus this month?
(E)Has the number of diagnosed cases of H4N2v been increasing in neighboring countries?


Quote:
Nov : Diagnosis of a Disease
Jan - March : 6000 cases/month
Apr - June : 8500 cases/month
Past Month: 9000 case/month

Conclusion : An increasing number of people contract the flu each month.


Now the stimulus states

1. Past month it can be July, September Or December
2. The stimulus talks about total No of cases of flu
3. The stimulus doesn't talk about the no of cases who are cured of the flu
4. Converse of (3) The stimulus doesn't talk about the no of cases of fresh addition


Pre-thinking helps here , option (B) Vs (D)

(D) Are any of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period still being treated for the virus this month?

This month can be July, September Or December

Further lets play the yes / no game for analyzing the option.

Yes - Some of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period still being treated for the virus this month

If 9000 cases are observed in July it is an alarming increase in the virus...
However if the 9000 cases are observed in September /December it is not such an alarming increase.

Thus nothing can be said for certain....

No- Some of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period not being treated for the virus this month

Thus Some of the patients have recovered and fresh cases have been registered , so nothing certain can be said..

(B) How many incidences of the H4N2v virus have gone untreated each month?

This is an important question, it addresses the key issue of actual increase in cases of flu registered in the country. It is obvious if more no of cases are left untreated it will swell up the incidence of the flue month after month...

Thus I will go with (B)

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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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New post 05 Sep 2016, 09:24
shonakshi wrote:
Can someone explain how is it B? I chose D


National Health Minister: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first diagnosed in our country. Since that time, our Centre for Disease Control has surveying doctors to track the virus’s progress. For the months of January-March, doctors treated an average of 6,000 cases per month, and then for the months April-June, that figure had risen to 8,500 diseases per month. This past month, the figure surpassed 9,000. We can conclude, then, that an increasing number of people contract the H4N2v strain of the flu each month.

The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the health minister’s argument?

(A)Have treatments for the H4N2v virus been successful in curing patients of the ailment?
Yes -> but still we don't know, how long it takes to cure. Therefore we can't evaluate the argument.
(B)How many incidences of the H4N2v virus have gone untreated each month?
All -> So, it started with 2500 cases, then decreased to 500 new cases....Can't say it is spreading
None -> each month we have new cases -> disease is spreading
(C)Is the H4N2v strain of the flu more contagious than more-common strains of the flu? out of scope
(D)Are any of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period still being treated for the virus this month?
lets take two extremes for this one:
None of patients -> means we have 9000 more cases -> no. of patients increasing
All of patients -> still we have 500 more incidents -> disease is spreading
(E)Has the number of diagnosed cases of H4N2v been increasing in neighboring countries? Out of scope

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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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New post 10 Sep 2016, 23:55
mitravanu wrote:
National Health Minister: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first diagnosed in our country. Since that time, our Centre for Disease Control has surveying doctors to track the virus’s progress. For the months of January-March, doctors treated an average of 6,000 cases per month, and then for the months April-June, that figure had risen to 8,500 diseases per month. This past month, the figure surpassed 9,000. We can conclude, then, that an increasing number of people contract the H4N2v strain of the flu each month.

The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the health minister’s argument?

(A)Have treatments for the H4N2v virus been successful in curing patients of the ailment?
(B)How many incidences of the H4N2v virus have gone untreated each month?
(C)Is the H4N2v strain of the flu more contagious than more-common strains of the flu?
(D)Are any of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period still being treated for the virus this month?
(E)Has the number of diagnosed cases of H4N2v been increasing in neighboring countries?

[Reveal] Spoiler: OE
The flaw in the given argument is a classic Critical Reasoning "these two things are similar, but not the same" piece of wordplay. The premises are about the number of H4N2v cases that doctors treated each month, while the conclusion talks about the number of people who contracted the virus. Can someone contract a virus without being treated for it? Of course. That, then constitutes a gap in logic: to strengthen the argument, you would want to show that the number of treatments is very similar to the number of cases, and to weaken it you would want to show the opposite, that the two numbers can vary widely.

Here the question asks which piece of information would be most useful to have, and so you want to find an answer that will help you better understand whether the number of treatments is a valid predictor of the number of cases that people contracted. Only answer choice B links the two, so B is the correct answer.


Hi VeritasPrepKarishma

could you please provide your comments for option B?

Thanks

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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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ankitatlnm wrote:
B


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The flaw in the given argument is a classic Critical Reasoning "these two things are similar, but not the same" piece of wordplay. The premises are about the number of H4N2v cases that doctors treated each month, while the conclusion talks about the number of people who contracted the virus. Can someone contract a virus without being treated for it? Of course. That, then constitutes a gap in logic: to strengthen the argument, you would want to show that the number of treatments is very similar to the number of cases, and to weaken it you would want to show the opposite, that the two numbers can vary widely.

Here the question asks which piece of information would be most useful to have, and so you want to find an answer that will help you better understand whether the number of treatments is a valid predictor of the number of cases that people contracted. Only answer choice B links the two, so B is the correct answer.

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Evaluate [#permalink]

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New post 25 Apr 2017, 01:51
National Health Minister: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first diagnosed in our country. Since that time, our Centre for Disease Control has been surveying doctors to track the virus’s progress. For the months of January-March, doctors treated an average of 6,000 cases of H4N2v per month, and then for the months April-June, that figure had risen to 8,500 cases per month. This past month, the figure surpassed 9,000. We can conclude, then, that an increasing number of people contract the H4N2v strain of the flu each month.

The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the health minister’s argument?

A. Have treatments for the H4N2v virus been successful in curing patients of the ailment?
B. How many incidences of the H4N2v virus have gone untreated each month?
C. Is the H4N2v strain of the flu more contagious than more-common strains of the flu?
D. Are any of the patients who were treated for H4N2v in the April-June period still being treated for the virus this month?
E. Has the number of diagnosed cases of H4N2v been increasing in neighboring countries?


Please post your answer with explanation.

Last edited by broall on 04 Jun 2017, 19:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Evaluate [#permalink]

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New post 25 Apr 2017, 03:41
You can easily come down to B and D.

The big thing to note here is the language shift from premise to conclusion.

The conclusion: more people are contracting the disease each month

The premise: more people are being treated each month

Imagine that in the first month, 10,000 people have contracted the disease. If that's the case, it's possible that the disease hasn't been spreading at all - it's just that more and more of the initial 10,000 are being treated each month. But if exactly 6000 have contracted the disease initially, and all of those people are getting treated, then we know that more people are getting sick each month, because the number of people treated has increased. So the key piece of info is the number of untreated cases. This is captured in B


Note that D is not talking about untreated cases. It's discussing whether the early cases are continuing to be treated later. But the length of treatment isn't the important variable here. It's whether there are many untreated cases.
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Re: Evaluate [#permalink]

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New post 25 Apr 2017, 03:45
BTW. this question had already been posted on gmatclub. Kindly read the 'rules of posting' before posting a post.

https://gmatclub.com/forum/in-november- ... 24858.html
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In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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mikemcgarry: Dear Mike, Hope you are doing great. Can you please help me understand why option D is wrong? See, I undertand the logic behind option B. The argument talks about total people that contracted the disease. And people contracting = Treated + Untreated. So in a way option B is very dear to the argument because it suggests that despite the total increase in treated patients, the total number of cases can still be low in the succeeding month. For example:
1. Month 1: 600(Treated) 400(untreated) : 1000 cases (Total)
2. Month 2: 700(Treated) 200(Untreated) : 900 cases (Total)
3. Month 3: 800(Treated) 50(Untreated) : 850 cases (Total)

So in a way, if there are untreated cases, the argument get severely undermined. BUT My QUESTION IS THAT: Isn't option D an equally good contender?

What if a large majority of people who were treated in Month 1 are again treated in month 2, would n't that point to the fact that the figure presented in the Question are DOUBTFUL. For example:
Month 1 : 300 people treated
Month 2: 450 people treated( if 250 were from first month itself, then it does ultimately make us doubt that figures are giving an overestimation) In fact, if we consider this statement, it sounds very logical to conclude that the total population contracting the disease has actually declined.

My point is that at the end of the day, we need to find something that weekens the validity of the statement. Apparently, I see that happening in both the situations. Can you share some thoughts on how to handle this ?

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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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harshdeep12 wrote:
mikemcgarry: Dear Mike, Hope you are doing great. Can you please help me understand why option D is wrong? See, I undertand the logic behind option B. The argument talks about total people that contracted the disease. And people contracting = Treated + Untreated. So in a way option B is very dear to the argument because it suggests that despite the total increase in treated patients, the total number of cases can still be low in the succeeding month. For example:
1. Month 1: 600(Treated) 400(untreated) : 1000 cases (Total)
2. Month 2: 700(Treated) 200(Untreated) : 900 cases (Total)
3. Month 3: 800(Treated) 50(Untreated) : 850 cases (Total)

So in a way, if there are untreated cases, the argument get severely undermined. BUT My QUESTION IS THAT: Isn't option D an equally good contender?

What if a large majority of people who were treated in Month 1 are again treated in month 2, would n't that point to the fact that the figure presented in the Question are DOUBTFUL. For example:
Month 1 : 300 people treated
Month 2: 450 people treated( if 250 were from first month itself, then it does ultimately make us doubt that figures are giving an overestimation) In fact, if we consider this statement, it sounds very logical to conclude that the total population contracting the disease has actually declined.

My point is that at the end of the day, we need to find something that weekens the validity of the statement. Apparently, I see that happening in both the situations. Can you share some thoughts on how to handle this ?

Dear harshdeep12,

I'm happy to respond. :-)

Many Veritas questions are wonderful, but here, I would agree with you. I think both (B) & (D) are valid answers, and that the question doesn't have the tightest logic. For example, if the question had simply said,
For the months of January-March, doctors treated an average of 6,000 new cases per month, and then . . .
and specified "new" in each other case, that would be a very subtle way to eliminate (D) while still retaining it as a trap answer. As it is, though, I believe this is a flawed question.

Does this make sense?
Mike :-)
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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first [#permalink]

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New post 27 Sep 2017, 10:29
+B.
Conc: An increasing number of people contract the H4N2v strain of the flu each month.
What if it is the previous month patients that have not been diagnosed successfully. We need the numbers.
For example if out of 6000, 5000 patients are the ones still having the disease in that case the no increased 3500. Which is less than the 1st month.
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Re: In November of last year, a rare strain (H4N2v) of influenza was first   [#permalink] 27 Sep 2017, 10:29
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