Maybe I'm over analyzing. You tell me.
Harvard's yield rate (the %age of people who turn down offers) is at 89% (11% reject offers). Stanford is at 87%, and Wharton/MIT/Chicago have somewhere around 70%. INSEAD doesn't publish yield rates, but I would say that 80ish percent would be a conservative, reasonable estimate. It could be lower, but lower would be better for us. The article assumes lower than 70 percent because reporting lower yields would reflect poorly on the school. Previous intakes have accepted roughly 200/200/100 for R1/2/3 respectively. This year is different because there are 4 rounds. I think we can reasonably assume that the school will still frontload the majority of the offers, and 150/150/75/75 wouldn't be too far off the mark. If we consider the gmatclub community to be a microcosm of MBA applicants, the 26 who are admitted (source: data table for the Sept 2015 intake thread) are roughly 1/6 of the offers sent out. The accuracy of this statement is dependent on what margin of error INSEAD works with, which would be essential in determining how many people make it off the waitlist. Since we don't know this number, there is no possible way I can accurately go forth. Stay with me though. Let's work with a few numbers here. Assuming INSEAD works with a 10 percent margin of error (165 offers sent for 150 seats) and the 80% yield holds true, we're looking at around 120-132 acceptances and 17-30 spots open. 5 of us have updated our profiles to reflect we are on the waitlist, so we can assume around 30 people on the waitlist for this next review. I think we have an ok shot at making it off the waitlist.
Our chances would be better than the January intake because many US business schools start around the September/August timeframe. More start dates, more possibilities for people to pick and choose which schools they go to.
Lots of assumptions, but let's stay positive.
https://poetsandquants.com/2012/01/17/th ... ion-rates/