In a poll conducted by interviewing eligible voters in their homes

Question

In a poll conducted by interviewing eligible voters in their homes just before the recent election, incumbent candidate Kenner was significantly ahead of candidate Muratori. Nonetheless, Muratori won the recent election.

Which one of the following, if true, most helps to resolve the apparent discrepancy described by the statements above?

(A) The positions taken by Muratori and Kenner on many election issues were not very similar to each other
(B) Kenner had held elected office for many years before the recent election
(C) In the year leading up to the election, Kenner was implicated in a series of political scandals
(D) Six months before the recent election, the voting age was lowered by three years
(E) In the poll, supporters of Muratori were more likely than others to describe the election as important

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Official Answer

E

VeritasPrepBrian · Accepted Answer

With these paradox/discrepancy questions, the most important thing to do is to identify the paradox before you move to the answer choices. Often times you can then start to anticipate what kind of answer you'll need. Here, the discrepancy is:

1) The polls strongly favored Kenner...just hours before the election
2) But Muratori won

How could those two things be true together? Here, I'd start to anticipate some things that could have made that difference. Maybe Kenner had to withdraw from the election the night before? Or some kind of stunning news came out that ruined Kenner's candidacy? Or maybe those voters who preferred Kenner just didn't actually go out and vote, whereas those that preferred Muratori made sure to go vote.

Choice E hits on that last point - it shows why, even though most people preferred Kenner, those people didn't care enough about the election to take the time to go vote their preference, while those who preferred Muratori came out in greater force. Choice E explains the discrepancy - "prefers" doesn't necessarily mean "voted for".

If you look at D, D doesn't directly tie into the candidates (we don't know that younger voters would have preferred Muratori, so we can't say that lowering the voting age would have played a role), but more importantly the time-stamp on it proves that it's irrelevant. The polls were taken YESTERDAY so they should have been inclusive of the voting population at that time. D deals with six months ago, so it shouldn't have any bearing on the discrepancy that took place from yesterday to today.

redskull1 · Answer

Keypoint = “JUST BEFORE ELECTIONS K > M”.But M still won.

A-Not similar views.Does not prove m wins
B-K was in the elected office.No effect on M winning.If anything shows why K should win as he is the incumbent 
C-In the year leading up to the election = not correct.we are worried with just before the elections
D-Six months before.Irrelevant.What happened just before is the relevant part
E-CORRECT.considering important implies they are more likely to vote than supports of K

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marvel3001 · Answer

If someone describes election as important, does it make him/her more likely to vote in election? I think there is further assumption required for Option E to be the answer. Can somebody please help?

nightblade354 · Answer

marvel3001 , if something is more important, there is a greater chance it'll get done. I think this applies to everyone (but could be a further assumption). That said, (E) is the best choice given the other choices. All others are completely out of scope, leaving us with only one legitimate answer

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PaceOven · Answer

KarishmaB  can you explain this one please.

guddo · Answer

In a poll conducted by interviewing eligible voters in their homes just before the recent election, incumbent candidate Kenner was significantly ahead of candidate Muratori. Nonetheless, Muratori won the recent election.
 
 Which one of the following, if true, most helps to resolve the apparent discrepancy described by the statements above?

The poll measured  voter preference , but the election result depends on who actually votes. So we need something showing that Muratori’s supporters were more likely to turn out on election day.

(A) The positions taken by Muratori and Kenner on many election issues were not very similar to each other.

Incorrect. Differences in their political positions do not explain why the poll favored Kenner while Muratori won.

(B) Kenner had held elected office for many years before the recent election.

Incorrect. This provides background about Kenner but does not explain the discrepancy between the poll and the result.

(C) In the year leading up to the election, Kenner was implicated in a series of political scandals.

Incorrect. Since the poll was conducted just before the election, the effect of those scandals should already have been reflected in the poll.

(D) Six months before the recent election, the voting age was lowered by three years.

Incorrect. The poll interviewed  eligible voters , so the newly eligible younger voters should also have been part of the population being surveyed. Nothing tells us that they disproportionately supported Muratori or were omitted from the poll.

(E) In the poll, supporters of Muratori were more likely than others to describe the election as important.

Correct.   If Muratori’s supporters considered the election more important, they may have been more motivated to actually vote. Kenner could therefore lead among eligible voters in the poll while Muratori won because a larger proportion of his supporters turned out.

Answer: (E)

KarishmaB · Answer

Paradox:  
In a poll conducted just before the recent election, Kenner was significantly ahead.
But Muratori won.

"just before" tells us that most likely nothing major happened after the poll but before the elections to change people's mind. Then how come in the poll, Kenner was significantly ahead but he lost?
Either there was sampling bias in the poll - perhaps the poll was conducted in pockets where Kenner had a lot of support. Or people who supported Kenner didn't actually go to vote.

(A) The positions taken by Muratori and Kenner on many election issues were not very similar to each other

Irrelevant. The poll showed that people preferred Kenner's position.

(B) Kenner had held elected office for many years before the recent election
  
This isn't new information between the poll and the actual elections. Kenner had held elected office for many years when the poll was conducted too. People still supported him.

(C) In the year leading up to the election, Kenner was implicated in a series of political scandals

Again, this isn't new information between the poll and the actual elections. The implications took place in the year leading to the eelctions. People still supported him in the polls. It means they didn't really care about the scandal.

(D) Six months before the recent election, the voting age was lowered by three years

An action that took place before both, the poll and the elections, is irrelevant to us. If it didn't impact the poll, it shouldn't have impacted the election.

(E) In the poll, supporters of Muratori were more likely than others to describe the election as important

If people think that something is important, they are more likely to participate in that. Muratori's supporters considered the election important suggests that more of them would have gone to vote. This can explain the paradox. If Kenner's supporters did not consider the election important, they may not have gone to participate in it and hence Kenner would have missed out on their votes. Just supporting from home is not enough - one must go to actually cast the vote to make it count.

Answer (E)

In a poll conducted by interviewing eligible voters in their homes

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In a poll conducted by interviewing eligible voters in their homes

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