I can totally appreciate your aversion to debt, but if your stated goals are actually your goals, this should be an easy choice. Again, it isn't about the "ranking" or "prestige" it is purely about which school gives you the shot at your goal. There are schools ranked lower than Kelley such as Georgetown, Vanderbilt or Rice which still place people into IB/PE.
Granting your hypothetical of ending up in the same IB group at BAML and interviewing for a PE spot: the hiring firm isn't necessarily going to choose a Duke person over an Indiana person on that alone (though it could be a factor)--but they don't do the formal recruiting from associate level that they do for analyst level...so the reason you would GET the interview in the first place would be because you were able to network...likely with Fuqua alum in PE. There are virtually no Kelley MBA alum in PE, and they placed none directly into PE from the last grad class.
Duke at least placed a handful (2%) directly into PE and many many many more into IB which is the most likely stepping stone for your end goal. You have the rare opportunity to attend a top 10 program which places some people directly into your dream industry and many many people into an industry that could lead to your dream goal shortly thereafter. Should your plans or location change, you will get access to a nationwide network which a brand name that can unlock doors.
I want to reiterate that Kelley is a great program, this discussion isn't about that. It's about your goals and the outcomes offered. I spent far too much time researching these same paths because I share your goals, feel free to DM me for more specifics.