tarek99
As part of a game, four people each must secretly choose an integer between 1 and 4, inclusive. What is the approximate likelihood that all four people will choose different numbers?
A. 9%
B. 12%
C. 16%
D. 20%
E. 25%
Although this is a very basic question and there are several responses i would like to reply elaborately.
There are 4 persons and each has to choose different numbers. we can have 2 approach.
1. Plain and simple countingLets say there are 4 persons : A,B,C,D and they need to choose 4 numbers such that no 2 person choose the same number.
How many choice does A have, if he is the first one to choose. It should be 4. There are 4 numbers and A does not have any constraint. So A can choose in 4 ways
How many choice does B have, if he is the second one to choose. It should be 3. There are in all 4 numbers. But A has already chosen 1, so B has only 3 numbers to choose from.
How many choice does C have, if he is the Third one to choose. It should be 2. There are in all 4 numbers. But A and B has already chosen 2 numbers, so C has only 2 numbers to choose from.
How many choice does D have, if he is the fourth one to choose. It should be 1. There are in all 4 numbers. But A, B and C has already chosen 3 numbers, so D has only 1 number left to choose from.
Now,
Probability of A = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of outcomes.
Number of favorable outcome = 4 --> As we calculated above.
Total number of outcomes = 4. There are only 4 numbers to choose from.
so P(A) = 4/4
Similarly P(B) = 3/4, P(C) = 2/4, P(D) = 1/4
Now all the persons have to choose the ball for the same event. Its like A chooses AND B chooses AND C chooses AND D chooses. Since we use 'and' we need to multiply.
Hence probability = 4/4 * 3/4*2/4*1/4 = 3/32 ~ 9%
2. Applying combinationsLets say there are 4 persons : A,B,C,D and they need to choose 4 numbers such that no 2 person choose the same number.
Now this is an unordered arrangement. It does not matter if the 4 chosen numbers are 1,2,3,4 or 2,1,3,4. We are only concerned with the fact that numbers chosen should be different. We are not bothered about a particular order and hence combination applies.
Having said that,
In how many ways can person A choose 1 number from available 4 number? Try it.
In how many ways can person B choose 1 number from available 4 number such that he does not choose the one which A already chased. Effectively B can choose only 1 from 3 numbers.
Similarly in how many ways can C and D choose?
what will be P(A)?
4c1/4c1. Total number of outcomes = 4C1
what will be P(B), P(C), P(D) ?
B : 3C1/4c1, C : 2C1/4c1, D : 1C1/4c1
Try out the overall probability it should be the same as #1 above
P(A) * P(B) * P (C) * P(D) = 4C1/4C1 * 3C1/4C1 * 2C1/4C1 * 1C1/4C1 = 3/32