Could someone please rate my Essay

ESSAY QUESTION:
The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:

“According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.


YOUR RESPONSE:
The argument states that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future thus the construction industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment. Stated in this way, the argument fails to mention several key factors on the basis of which it can be evaluated. The conclusion of the argument relies on assumptions for which there is no clear evidence.

First, the argument assumes that a higher percentage equals higher number. This is not necessarily true. For example, if we consider the total number of readers of the magazine to be 10, a 70% figure would mean 7 people responded positively to the survey. On the other hand, a number 1000 would give the number of respondents planning to buy a house as 700. We can not assume that a higher percentage means higher number. There is no evidence about the number of readers of the magazine. Clearly, the assumption is wrong. The argument could have been made stronger if it had explicitly stated the number of people reading the magazine.

Second, the argument does not provide the information about the background of the readers of the magazine. The background could mean the income of the households, area where they live etc. The argument assumes that the the people reading the magazine represents the full population of the area or country in the argument. This is again a leap of faith. For example, if the people reading the magazine are only the really rich people, then their wealth might be the reason they are buying homes. On the other hand, if the people reading the magazine are really poor, the response received in the magazine might just be a wishful thinking. However, if the argument had explicitly stated the background of the readers of the magazine, it could have been stronger.

Third, the argument fails to consider several other factors like socio-economic conditions of the country, current housing market situation etc. If people responded to a survey that they are planning to buy homes in near future, this does not mean that they are going to but it. Moreover, if the market conditions of the country in the argument is not so good, we might get the opposite results of what is stated in the argument. On the other hand, if the argument had mentioned the impact of such factors or had stated that we can assume that these factors will be the same in the next 2 years, the argument could have been stronger

Finally, considering all the key factors mentioned above, we could say that the argument fails to consider these factors and is weak and unsubstantiated. If the author had provided answers or explanations of these questions, the argument would have been more convincing. Without having reasonable responses to these questions, the argument is just a wishful thinking and a leap of faith.