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It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous

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It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 18 May 2015, 03:09
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D
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It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous to drive an automobile than to ride a motorcycle. After all, the National Safety Council estimates that one person in 19000 will die each year as a passenger in an automobile, while only one out of every 73000 will be killed as a motorcyclist.

Which of the following studies would be most useful in assessing the validity of the argument above?

(A) Comparing the NSC's statistics with those of other nations where traffic laws and conditions are similar
(B) Expressing the difference between the probability of deaths among automobile and motorcyclists
(C) Separating the odds of death due to illegal operating vehicles
(D) Comparing death rates per thousand members of each group rather than comparing total number of deaths
(E) Comparing the number of deaths on highways versus that on city roads

Need some elaboration pls..
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 25 Feb 2016, 00:30
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PrakharGMAT wrote:
Hi carcass / aditya8062 / mikemcgarry / daagh /VeritasPrepKarishma,

Could you please share your reasoning behind this CR
How could the ans be D.

Will we waiting for your assistance



hi,
I missed out reading one word in a hurry and it resulted in understanding the Q wrongly..
so why D is the answer....


the para says that one in 19,000 people die in car accident..
the para then says that 1 out of 73000 people is likely to die in motor accident..
so he concludes that car travel is unsafe..


It may be possible that most of the person travel by car and that is why we are having the ratio higher for car..
an example..
population is 73000..
there is one death in motorcyle accident, and almost 4 deaths in car accident..
one would say car travel is unsafe..
but if only one person was driving motorcycle and he died..
and 10,000 were travelling in a car and 4 died..
of course motorcycle travel is unsafe ..

that is why D is correct..
we are asking for ratio of deaths per thousand in that category..
this will give us a clearer picture..

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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 24 Feb 2016, 13:41
Hi chetan2u,

Can you please tell with an example how is D correct. According to me it a correct reasoning behind making a conclusion. I know I am missing something.

If I go to purchase a vehicle and someone says according to survey -
1) 1 out of every 19000 is dead in car accident
2) 1 out of every 73000 is dead in motorcycle accident.
Conclusion- So, I should purchase car as I will be more safe.

Where is my reasoning wrong.
Please help.
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 25 Feb 2016, 00:16
Hi carcass / aditya8062 / mikemcgarry / daagh /VeritasPrepKarishma,

Could you please share your reasoning behind this CR
How could the ans be D.

Will we waiting for your assistance
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 25 Feb 2016, 00:42
Ammmm........

Now I got the reasoning behind it.. Thank you for explanation chetan2u.
This question really sucked me.....
Thanks again :D
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 25 Feb 2016, 00:45
chetan2u

Can you please reply for PM as well that I sent you..
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Apr 2017, 06:15
inboxsaukar wrote:
It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous to drive an automobile than to ride a motorcycle. After all, the National Safety Council estimates that one person in 19000 will die each year as a passenger in an automobile, while only one out of every 73000 will be killed as a motorcyclist.

Which of the following studies would be most useful in assessing the validity of the argument above?

A) Comparing the NSC's statistics with those of other nations where traffic laws and conditions are similar
B) Expressing the difference between the probability of deaths among automobile and motorcyclists
C) Separating the odds of death due to illegal operating vehicles
D) Comparing death rates per thousand members of each group rather than comparing total number of deaths
E) Comparing the number of deaths on highways versus that on city roads


You were likely able to expose the flaw in the question above: Not nearly as many people ride motorcycles as drive cars, so of course more people are killed in cars than on motorcycles. The sample sizes for each group are wildly incongruent; the argument is like saying that you are more likely to be injured while walking than while taming a lion. True—but walking is still safer. We just do that so much more than we tame lions that the absolute numbers won’t be representative of the risk.

When sample sizes are incongruent, a better comparison comes from taking the per-capita rate (how many from each group) than taking the absolute numbers. And that is what answer choice D correctly does: It standardizes the comparison by expressing the probability on the basis of 1,000 members of each group, and not as a probability of the population (which likely includes billions who do not ride motorcycles) as a whole. Beware of answer choice B. If you read it quickly, you might think it would give the necessary information to properly assess the argument, but it still is not breaking apart the groups and giving the necessary per capita information for each group separately. It is yet another example of a cleverly repackaged premise; the study would not give you any new information.
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Feb 2018, 06:09
chetan2u wrote:
PrakharGMAT wrote:
Hi carcass / aditya8062 / mikemcgarry / daagh /VeritasPrepKarishma,

Could you please share your reasoning behind this CR
How could the ans be D.

Will we waiting for your assistance



hi,
I missed out reading one word in a hurry and it resulted in understanding the Q wrongly..
so why D is the answer....


the para says that one in 19,000 people die in car accident..
the para then says that 1 out of 73000 people is likely to die in motor accident..
so he concludes that car travel is unsafe..


It may be possible that most of the person travel by car and that is why we are having the ratio higher for car..
an example..
population is 73000..
there is one death in motorcyle accident, and almost 4 deaths in car accident..
one would say car travel is unsafe..
but if only one person was driving motorcycle and he died..
and 10,000 were travelling in a car and 4 died..
of course motorcycle travel is unsafe ..

that is why D is correct..
we are asking for ratio of deaths per thousand in that category..
this will give us a clearer picture..


Hi chetan2u,

Is n't one in 19000 and one in every 73000 already giving an ratio?

Please help

thanks
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Feb 2018, 08:07
D is my answer.

Followed the elimination technique. It is easier to eliminate A,B,C and E rather than selecting D.
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Mar 2018, 01:01
According to me A is the correct answer because according to option D the argument compares the total no. of deaths, but actually the argument is stating in fraction terms or more accurately a probability.

So, how can option D be right when the argument does not compare total no. of deaths ??

Please explain to me.

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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 16 Sep 2019, 18:13
Hello,

I still have doubt with above explanation.

In question itself it is mentioned 1 in 19000 deaths for car traveler and 1 in 78000 deaths in biker, hence either way we can calculate death rate per thousand from above data.

i.e. For car=1/19 death per thousand while for bike= 1/78 per thousand riders, hence we can say that bike is safe.

Why we would be needing separate per thousand deaths?
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It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 12 Jan 2020, 01:36
Dear VeritasKarishma DmitryFarber IanStewart VeritasPrepBrian,

Q1. I do not know what the 2 ratios given in the passage mean. For example, does one person in 19,000 mean one death out of 19,000 deaths from ALL category combined in the country?

Q2. I do not know what choice B. means (the original choice B. in the post is inaccurate).

(B) Expressing the difference between the probability of death among automobile passengers and that of motorcyclists as a percentage of the total number of deaths

Does choice B. mean merely subtracting 1/73,000 from 1/19,000 given in the passage?

Otherwise, how can we calculate the probability of death among automobile passengers as a percentage of the total number of deaths? Similarly, how can we calculate the probability of motorcyclists as a percentage of the total number of deaths?

The wording is so ambiguous here.

Thank you in advance!
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous  [#permalink]

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New post 12 Jan 2020, 23:45
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inboxsaukar wrote:
It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous to drive an automobile than to ride a motorcycle. After all, the National Safety Council estimates that one person in 19000 will die each year as a passenger in an automobile, while only one out of every 73000 will be killed as a motorcyclist.

Which of the following studies would be most useful in assessing the validity of the argument above?

(A) Comparing the NSC's statistics with those of other nations where traffic laws and conditions are similar
(B) Expressing the difference between the probability of deaths among automobile and motorcyclists
(C) Separating the odds of death due to illegal operating vehicles
(D) Comparing death rates per thousand members of each group rather than comparing total number of deaths
(E) Comparing the number of deaths on highways versus that on city roads

Need some elaboration pls..


one person in 19000 will die each year as a passenger in an automobile

This means that if the population of a country is 190,000,
10 people will die each year as a passenger in an automobile, (1 in 19000)
but only 2.5 people will die each year as a motorcyclist. (1 in 73000)
This is what the premises tell us.

(B) Expressing the difference between the probability of death among automobile passengers and that of motorcyclists as a percentage of the total number of deaths

Again, say population of a country is 190,000.
Say total number of deaths last year were 100.
(Death in an automobile/Total number of deaths)*100 = (10/100)*100 = 10%
(Death on a motorcycle/Total number of deaths)*100 = (2.5/100)*100 = 2.5%

This doesn't help us in any way because the total in both the cases is the same again. The point is that the given figures will give very different pictures when the totals are relevant numbers (number of people who drive automobiles vs number of people who ride motorcycles)
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Re: It is logical to conclude that it is more dangerous   [#permalink] 12 Jan 2020, 23:45
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