betterscore wrote:
Debater: The average amount of overtime per month worked by an employee in the manufacturing division of the Haglut Corporation is 14 hours. Most employees of the Haglut Corporation work in the manufacturing division. Furthermore, the average amount of overtime per month worked by any employee in the company generally does not fluctuate much from month to month. Therefore, each month, most employees of the Haglut Corporation almost certainly work at least some overtime.
The debater's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on which of these grounds?
(A) It takes for granted that the manufacturing division is a typical division of the corporation with regard to the average amount of overtime its employees work each month.
(B) It takes for granted that if a certain average of amount of overtime is worked each month by each employee of the Haglut Corporation, then approximately the same amount of overtime must be worked each month by each employee of the manufacturing division.
(C) It confuses a claim from which the argument's conclusion about the Haglut Corporation would necessarily follow with a claim that would follow from the argument's conclusion only with a high degree of probability.
(D) It overlooks the possibility that even if, on average, a certain amount of overtime is worked by the members of some group, many members of that group may work no overtime at all.
(E) It overlooks the possibility that even if most employees of the corporation work some overtime each month, anyone corporate employee may, in some months, work no overtime.
Manufacturing division of HC (say has 100 people)- Avg overtime per month = 14 hrs
Manufacturing division has most employees (so say total number of HC employees is 110)
Avg overtime per month for all employees stays steady month to month (say it stays between 13.5 to 15 hrs per month)
Conclusion: Each month, most employees of HC almost certainly work at least some overtime.
What is the flaw here? It talks about average overtime and then concludes the average holds for each member. It is certainly possible that of the 100 people in manufacturing division, 20 people work 70 hrs overtime per month while 80 people work no overtime. Can I say that most employees work at least some overtime? No! Of the total 110 people, 80 work no overtime at all!
This is exactly what (D) says:
(D) It overlooks the possibility that even if, on average, a certain amount of overtime is worked by the members of some group, many members of that group may work no overtime at all.
Answer (D)
(A) It takes for granted that the manufacturing division is a typical division of the corporation with regard to the average amount of overtime its employees work each month.
It doesn't. It is concluding about each employee.
(B) It takes for granted that if a certain average of amount of overtime is worked each month by each employee of the Haglut Corporation, then approximately the same amount of overtime must be worked each month by each employee of the manufacturing division.
Again, it doesn't. Avg of HC and avg of Manufacturing division in HC could be a bit different.
(C) It confuses a claim from which the argument's conclusion about the Haglut Corporation would necessarily follow with a claim that would follow from the argument's conclusion only with a high degree of probability.
This is just given to confuse the heck out of you! My first thought was "there is neither a claim given from which the conclusion can follow, nor is there a claim which follows from the conclusion". The argument gives verifiable data, but claims nothing other than the conclusion from the data. The only claim is the conclusion. Hence I moved on to the next option.
A cursory glance might make you think that what they are concluding has a high degree of possibility but the conclusion gives is as almost a certainty and well, that is the problem. But note that even then, you should know that what the conclusion concludes does not have a high degree of probability. We have no grounds to believe that every employee would probably work some overtime at least. It is very much possible that very few people put in a lot of overtime while other don't. We don't know the requirements of the industry.
(E) It overlooks the possibility that even if most employees of the corporation work some overtime each month, anyone corporate employee may, in some months, work no overtime.
The conclusion is about most employees, not all employees so this is not the flaw.
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Karishma
Owner of Angles and Arguments at https://anglesandarguments.com/
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