PrakharGMAT wrote:
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately.
Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?
(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
(C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
(D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
(E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.
Source -
OG 2017
Question No - 661
SolutionPassage analysisIn the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994In 1994, in the country of Marut, the records of its Foreign Trade Agency(FTA) were reviewed.
in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro.This review was done when information became newly available about its neighbor Goro.
The review revealed that in every year since 1963,This review brought to light that each year since 1963
the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years laterFTA’s estimates of what Goro’s GNP would be five years down the line
was a serious underestimateWere grossly inaccurate (projected estimates were much lower than the actual GNP)
The review also revealed that in every year since 1963,The same review also revealed that each year since 1963
the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous yearFTA’s estimated Goro’s GNP for just the previous year
—a Goro state secret—(this information was kept secret by Goro)
very accurately.Very accurately.
Gist of the passage- There are 2 neighboring countries à Marut and Goro.
- Information about Goro became newly available to Marut.
- Equipped with this newly available information, Marut’s Foreign Trade Agency (FTA)reviewed its records in 1994.
- The review revealed the following pieces of information
- In every year since the year 1963 (for the last 30 years), FTA’s projections of what Goro’s GNP would be, five years later, were seriously flawed.
- But, for the same period, that is, in each year since 1963, the same agency was able to estimate very accurately Goro’s previous year’s GNP (although this was kept secret by Goro at the time)
- This means that if FTA made a prediction in 1963, it would be for Goro’s GNP in 1969 and in 1964 it would be for 1970, and in1965 it would be for 1971, and so on. We know from the records that these projections were inaccurate.
- But FTA’s projections were accurate for 1968, 1969,1970 and so on--When, why and how did this come about.
- We can infer here that FTA must have reviewed its previous projections and then only it could have been possible for them to come up with another projection but a more accurate one.
Question stem analysisOf the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given?The following options are conclusions made on the basis of the information given in the passage. Which option finds the strongest support from the passage?
Answer Choice AnalysisAUnderstand the choiceThis option says that Goro’s GNP kept fluctuating volatilely between 1963 and 1994
Analyze in the context of the passage and the question stemAs per the passage, we only have information about FTA’s lack of accuracy in the 5-year projections and its accuracy in the previous year projections. So, we know that the FTA was not very accurate all the time. Neither was it inaccurate all the time. But no information is given about the actual GNP of Goro when it was predicted inaccurately or when it was predicted accurately. Therefore, we cannot find any support in the passage for this answer choice.
Hence, this is not the correct answer.
BUnderstand the choice Before 1995, Goro had not given out any information about itself that was supposed to deliberately mislead the agency while it made its five-year projections
Analyze in the context of the passage and the question stemThis option implies that in 1995, Goro gave out misleading information. We know that in 1994, information about Goro became newly available. But we cannot infer that this information was intended to mislead or not. Neither can we infer this was the first time such information became available. And we, in fact, cannot really say how this information became available. Whether Goro itself gave out misleading information cannot be deduced. Therefore, we cannot say for sure whether Goro gave out misleading information only since 1995 and not before that.
Hence, this is not the answer.
CUnderstand the choiceThis option gives says that the amount (which was the difference between the inaccurately projected GNP and the actual GNP) by which the agency underestimated the GNP had the tendency to increase over time.
Analyze in the context of the passage and the question stemLet us say, for e.g., that the first 5-year projection that FTA made was for 5million. The actual GNP turned out to be 8 million. The next time the projection was for 6 million, but the actual GNP was 10 million. Next, it was for 7 million whereas actual GNP was 12 million. So as per the choice, this is what happened. Do we have any data in the passage to support this? No.
Hence, this is not the correct choice.
DUnderstand the choiceThis option says that even before the new information about Goro became available, the FTA knew that some (meaning at least 1 and could be more) of its 5-year projections were inaccurate.
Analyze in the context of the passage and the question stemAs per the passage, we know that
FTA’s prediction in 1963 would be for Goro’s GNP in 1969 and in 1964 it would be for 1970 and in1965 it would be for 1971 and so on. We know from the records that these projections were inaccurate.
But FTA’s projections were accurate for 1968, 1969,1970 and so on--When, why and how did this come about.
Here we can infer that FTA knew it was inaccurate in at least some of the cases (meaning at least 1 and could be more) in its projections and so it made a new projection, and this time was able to come up with a more accurate one.
Hence, this option finds support from the passage.
EUnderstand the choiceThis says FTA’s 5-year projections of Goro’s GNP had no influence or did not make any difference on the economic planning in Marut.
Analyze in the context of the passage and the question stemThis option is completely out of the context. We have no idea at all about the economy or the economic planning of either of the countries. We also do not know the kind of relationship that exists between the two countries. We can only guess why Marut follows Goro’s GNP or predicts it, but we cannot say with surety why it is so.
Hence, this cannot be inferred from the information given in the passage.