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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 15 Jul 2020, 17:39
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive. In addition to irritating the majority who already behave responsibly, it may undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious. And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting.

The two sections in boldface play which of the following roles in the public health expert's argument?


(A) The first is a conclusion for which support is provided. but is not the argument's main conclusion; the second is an unsupported premise supporting the arguments main conclusion.

(B) The first is a premise supporting the only explicit conclusion; so is the second.

(C) The first is the argument's main conclusion; the second supports that conclusion and is itself a conclusion for which support is provided.

(D) The first is a premise supporting the argument's only conclusion; the second is that conclusion.

(E) The first is the argument‘s only explicit conclusion; the second is a premise supporting that conclusion.


Show Spoiler
Public Health Messages

Step 1: Identify the Question

The boldface font and the word roles in the question stem indicate that this is a Describe the Role question.

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

Boldface #1: increasing urgency may backfire

Irritate the majority

Boldface #2: may undermine all gov’t health messages

No reason to believe that people will listen to increased urgency

The argument is a little convoluted, so it may help to restate it in your own words. When the government makes a public health announcement, most people listen and act responsibly. Some don’t, though. Sending increasingly urgent messages to those people won’t actually make them respond responsibly and might actually make the ones who are responsible stop paying attention.

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

The first boldface is the conclusion of the argument. The second is a premise in support of that conclusion.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) Hmm. Not the argument’s main conclusion? Check the argument again to make sure that you’ve got the main conclusion. Yep, the first boldface is the main conclusion, so this choice is incorrect.

(B) The first one is the conclusion, not a premise supporting the conclusion.

(C) Yes, the first is the conclusion. Yes, the second supports that conclusion. Is the second also a conclusion? Check the two non-bold portions of the argument to see whether they provide support for this statement. Nope, both refer to people who don’t listen to the message; they don’t address the people who do.

(D) The first one is the conclusion, not a premise supporting the conclusion.

(E) CORRECT. The first boldface is the conclusion and the second is a premise supporting that conclusion.
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GMATNinja RonPurewal What is the role of the last sentence of there argument? "...And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting." Tks! :)
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 13 Aug 2020, 15:08
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anyone can help what does the last line( And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting) meant in the argument
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 08 Oct 2020, 19:44
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive. In addition to irritating the majority who already behave responsibly, it may undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious. And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting.

The two sections in boldface play which of the following roles in the public health expert's argument?


(A) The first is a conclusion for which support is provided. but is not the argument's main conclusion; the second is an unsupported premise supporting the arguments main conclusion.

(B) The first is a premise supporting the only explicit conclusion; so is the second.

(C) The first is the argument's main conclusion; the second supports that conclusion and is itself a conclusion for which support is provided.

(D) The first is a premise supporting the argument's only conclusion; the second is that conclusion.

(E) The first is the argument‘s only explicit conclusion; the second is a premise supporting that conclusion.


Show Spoiler
Public Health Messages

Step 1: Identify the Question

The boldface font and the word roles in the question stem indicate that this is a Describe the Role question.

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

Boldface #1: increasing urgency may backfire

Irritate the majority

Boldface #2: may undermine all gov’t health messages

No reason to believe that people will listen to increased urgency

The argument is a little convoluted, so it may help to restate it in your own words. When the government makes a public health announcement, most people listen and act responsibly. Some don’t, though. Sending increasingly urgent messages to those people won’t actually make them respond responsibly and might actually make the ones who are responsible stop paying attention.

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

The first boldface is the conclusion of the argument. The second is a premise in support of that conclusion.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) Hmm. Not the argument’s main conclusion? Check the argument again to make sure that you’ve got the main conclusion. Yep, the first boldface is the main conclusion, so this choice is incorrect.

(B) The first one is the conclusion, not a premise supporting the conclusion.

(C) Yes, the first is the conclusion. Yes, the second supports that conclusion. Is the second also a conclusion? Check the two non-bold portions of the argument to see whether they provide support for this statement. Nope, both refer to people who don’t listen to the message; they don’t address the people who do.

(D) The first one is the conclusion, not a premise supporting the conclusion.

(E) CORRECT. The first boldface is the conclusion and the second is a premise supporting that conclusion.

GMATNinja RonPurewal What is the role of the last sentence of there argument? "...And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting." Tks! :)
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saby1410
anyone can help what does the last line( And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting) meant in the argument
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The final sentence of the argument provides additional support for the public health expert’s conclusion that “increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive.” The author asserts that there is no evidence to suggest that those who ignore public health messages of “normal” urgency (measured voices) will listen to public health messages of “high” urgency (shouting).

I hope that helps!
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 05 Jan 2021, 05:00
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GMATNinja Thanks for the explanation; however, I recall a premise could also be an intermediate conclusion. I was just wondering if the sentence "....irritating majority of people who behave responsibly" does the quoted sentence not support the BF2-...by convincing people that such message are overly cautious.

Thanks in advance.
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 16 Jan 2021, 12:28
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GMATNinja Thanks for the explanation; however, I recall a premise could also be an intermediate conclusion. I was just wondering if the sentence "....irritating majority of people who behave responsibly" does the quoted sentence not support the BF2-...by convincing people that such message are overly cautious.

Thanks in advance.
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Does the fact that increasing the urgency of public health messages irritates those who behave responsibly support the idea that the practice convinces people such messages are overly cautious? Not really. It seems like these are two different effects of increasing the urgency of public health messages. It’s not that irritating those who behave responsibly convinces people such messages are overly cautious. Rather, increasing the urgency has two different effects:

    (1) Those who behave responsibly are irritated.
    (2) Others are convinced such messages are overly cautious (and presumably don’t behave responsibly as a result).

The relationship between these two facts is further clarified by the phrase “In addition to....” The use of this phrase indicates that we have two separate things. It’s not that the first supports the second. Instead, the result of increasing the urgency of public health messages is (1) in addition to (2).

I hope that helps!
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 19 Jul 2021, 22:21
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MartyTargetTestPrep ,

Although, GMATNinja explained about how could in this passage a statement which looks like a conclusion can be a premise, I still could not convince myself about the explanation.
My question is for this statement
Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive. In addition to irritating the majority who already behave responsibly, it may undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious.

Looking at the context of passage, we know for the fact that "increasing the urgency of public health message irritated the majority who already behave responsibly. Now the statement further states that" In addition to that, it may undermine all government pronouncements on health ------ " This is a pure speculation by the expert, but not a fact. We know premises are facts and cannot be questioned. Is there a difference between speculation and opinion ? A conclusion is an opinion. And opinions are speculations supported by premises in passage. Despite all this, how can the second boldface be a premise?

Now if what author opines as opinion or speculation can be a premise, then how do we differentiate between those sort of premise and conclusion. From what i have solved any CR till date, I was of this opinion that opinions or speculations expressed by authors are conclusions ,some may be main while some may be intermediate. if opinions can also be the premise ,then the fundamental upon i believed will be shaken.

I am requesting to please shed some light on this.

Thanks in advance for your explanation
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 20 Jul 2021, 06:05
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MartyTargetTestPrep ,

Although, GMATNinja explained about how could in this passage a statement which looks like a conclusion can be a premise, I still could not convince myself about the explanation.
My question is for this statement
Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive. In addition to irritating the majority who already behave responsibly, it may undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious.

Looking at the context of passage, we know for the fact that "increasing the urgency of public health message irritated the majority who already behave responsibly. Now the statement further states that" In addition to that, it may undermine all government pronouncements on health ------ " This is a pure speculation by the expert, but not a fact. We know premises are facts and cannot be questioned. Is there a difference between speculation and opinion ? A conclusion is an opinion. And opinions are speculations supported by premises in passage. Despite all this, how can the second boldface be a premise?

Now if what author opines as opinion or speculation can be a premise, then how do we differentiate between those sort of premise and conclusion. From what i have solved any CR till date, I was of this opinion that opinions or speculations expressed by authors are conclusions ,some may be main while some may be intermediate. if opinions can also be the premise ,then the fundamental upon i believed will be shaken.

I am requesting to please shed some light on this.

Thanks in advance for your explanation
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The fact that a sentence uses the word "may" does not mean that that sentence does not state a fact.

Consider these sentences:

Alex may already be back from Nepal.

That water may be contaminated.

Both of those sentences state facts that could support conclusions even though both use "may."

For example:

Premise: That water may be contaminated.

Conclusion: Therefore, drinking it may result in contamination-related illness.

So, in the case of this question, we have the following:

Conclusion: Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive.

That conclusion is supported by some facts, among them the following:

Premise: It may undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious.

What a cool Boldface question. The writer did a great job of making facts seem not to be facts.
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 05 Dec 2021, 07:25
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive. In addition to irritating the majority who already behave responsibly, it may undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious. And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting.

The two sections in boldface play which of the following roles in the public health expert's argument?


(A) The first is a conclusion for which support is provided. but is not the argument's main conclusion; the second is an unsupported premise supporting the arguments main conclusion.

(B) The first is a premise supporting the only explicit conclusion; so is the second.

(C) The first is the argument's main conclusion; the second supports that conclusion and is itself a conclusion for which support is provided.

(D) The first is a premise supporting the argument's only conclusion; the second is that conclusion.

(E) The first is the argument‘s only explicit conclusion; the second is a premise supporting that conclusion.



Solution
Understand the passage

Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive.
    A public health expert offers his opinion on public health messages.
    He says that increasing the urgency of a public health message is likely to produce a negative result or an undesired result.
    What that means is, instead of increasing the urgency of the message, people might choose to ignore it.

In addition to irritating the majority who already behave responsibly,
    He goes on to offer his reasoning behind this opinion.
    He believes that apart from annoying most of the people who are already responsible towards health,

it may undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious.
    attempts to increase the urgency of public health messages might weaken the impact of all government announcements on health by somehow making people feel that these messages are being overly careful/ (messages are being unnecessarily alarmist)

And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting.
    The author adds that there is no reason to believe that people who ignore controlled voices will actually listen to anyone shouting.

Pre-thinking
1st Bold Face
Role = claim made by the author
Relationship = It is the main conclusion of the argument

2nd Bold Face
Role = opinion of the author
Relationship = offered in support of the main conclusion

Overall
Go in the same direction.

Answer Choice Analysis

A
The first is a conclusion
    Yes. It is the main conclusion of the passage
for which support is provided.
    Yes. BF2 provides support for it
but is not the argument's main conclusion;
    No.
the second is an unsupported premise
    Yes. It does not have any support in the passage as such
 supporting the arguments main conclusion
    Yes.


Thus, this choice is incorrect

B
The first is a premise
    No. It is the conclusion of the argument
supporting the only explicit conclusion;
    No.
so is the second.
    Yes. The second boldface supports BF1
Thus, this is not the correct choice.

C
The first is the argument's main conclusion;
    Yes
the second supports that conclusion
    Yes.
and is itself a conclusion
    No. It is not a derived statement and hence cannot be called a conclusion
for which support is provided
    No. No support is provided for the send boldface.

Thus, this is not the correct choice.

D
The first is a premise
    No.
 supporting the argument's only conclusion;
    No. Because it itself is the main conclusion
 the second is that conclusion.
    No. It is just the author’s opinion acting as a premise to the main conclusion.

Thus, this is not the correct choice.

E
The first is the argument‘s only explicit conclusion;
    Yes. It is the main conclusion
 the second is a premise
    Yes. It is just the author’s opinion acting as a premise to the main conclusion
supporting that conclusion
    Yes.

Thus, this is the correct choice.
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Dear SME,
I have query regarding Option E, Since the second BF is an opinion of someone, It can be doubted or questioned.
But option E says it as Premise whih is must be true. I rejected E based on this logic.
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 09 Dec 2021, 08:59
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egmat in your explanation for option C you have said no support is provided for second bold faced, 'And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting.' is not the support ? what role does it play though
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 04 Feb 2022, 02:55
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Dhwanii
egmat in your explanation for option C you have said no support is provided for second bold faced, 'And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting.' is not the support ? what role does it play though
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Let me take a shot at this.

What are 'measured voices' and 'shouting' doing here? First, let's relate the statement to the context. Essentially, in the context, the sentence means that there is no reason to believe that people who are ignoring a current public health message (measured voices) will listen to one with increased urgency (shouting).

What's the argument?

    1. Increasing the urgency will distance many people
      a. by irritating them
      b. and by possibly making them undermine all government health pronouncements
    2. Moreover, increasing the urgency will anyway not even be helpful for the target audience (if the current messages haven't been effective, there is no reason to believe that ones with increased urgency will be).

So, it seems that increasing the urgency will
    1. distance many people
    2. and not benefit anyone

That's why it may be counterproductive.


Another way to look at the argument:

How might increasing the urgency be counterproductive?

    1. It will irritate many people
    2. It may undermine all government health pronouncements
    3. And, anyway if the current messages haven't been effective, there is no reason to believe that ones with increased urgency will be


Seen either way, the last sentence supports the conclusion in the first sentence.

Hope that helps.
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag Updated on: 16 Oct 2025, 12:06
Originally posted by AnishPassi on 10 Feb 2022, 02:14.
Last edited by AnishPassi on 16 Oct 2025, 12:06, edited 1 time in total.
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I had written two solutions for this question. I have merged them into one now. However, I cannot delete this old post now. So, I’ll add the link to the merged solution here: https://gmatclub.com/forum/public-healt ... l#p3062311
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 31 Mar 2022, 00:54
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BF 1 = Main Conlcusion
BF 2 = Intermediate Conclusion.

How can we say that the second one is not a sub conclusion or a subordinate conclusion. ?
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 01 Apr 2022, 10:57
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devil.rocx
BF 1 = Main Conlcusion
BF 2 = Intermediate Conclusion.

How can we say that the second one is not a sub conclusion or a subordinate conclusion. ?
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The second BF isn't a conclusion because there isn't anything in the passage that supports it. It's simply stated as a possible effect of increasing the urgency of a public health message. The author doesn't provide any evidence to convince us that this is in fact a real possibility -- we just have to accept it.

That's why (E) beats (C).

I hope that helps!
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 09 May 2022, 10:15
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mikemcgarry DmitryFarber GMATNinja
the correct choice says that the second bold face is a premise

now as far as i know a premise is something which has to be taken as true and cannot be challenged or its validity cannot be question.
now the second bold face is an opinion of the author and explicitly mentioned by him/her that "it may ....."

please explain egmat
Manukaran
I had the exact same doubt. I have an impression that premise is a fact, while here, the 2nd BF is clearly an opinion and not a fact. So, how is E the right answer?
Yes, a premise is a statement that must be taken as true, and cannot be questioned.

But this doesn't mean that the premise itself must indicate that something is definitely true. Consider this instructional example:

Quote:
Weatherman: Commuters who want to stay dry on their way home should take an umbrella to work today. It's possible that we'll see heavy rainfall between 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m.
The premise (which is bolded) clearly supports the weatherman's conclusion. However, the premise doesn't read, "It will definitely rain." The premise reads, "It's possible that we'll see heavy rainfall."

We take the entire statement to be true, but the statement itself tells us what is possible. It doesn't matter whether this forecast only tells us what might happen. The overall statement is still a valid premise.

Coming back to our OG question, here's the conclusion again:

Quote:
Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive.
And here are the two premises backing up this conclusion:

  • Increasing the urgency of a public health message irritates the majority who already behave responsibly.
  • Increasing the urgency of a public health message undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious.

Both premises support the public health expert's conclusion. The second premise doesn't offer a 100% confirmation that increasing the urgency will undermine all government pronouncements. But we don't need that in order to accept this as a premise supporting the conclusion.

I hope this helps!
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GMATNinja
For the person's question above "now as far as i know a premise is something which has to be taken as true and cannot be challenged or its validity cannot be question."

Isn't the difference here that a premise is what THE AUTHOR believes is true, but it does not necessarily need to be a real fact?
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 10 May 2022, 16:08
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive. In addition to irritating the majority who already behave responsibly, it may undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious. And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting.

The two sections in boldface play which of the following roles in the public health expert's argument?


(A) The first is a conclusion for which support is provided. but is not the argument's main conclusion; the second is an unsupported premise supporting the arguments main conclusion.

(B) The first is a premise supporting the only explicit conclusion; so is the second.

(C) The first is the argument's main conclusion; the second supports that conclusion and is itself a conclusion for which support is provided.

(D) The first is a premise supporting the argument's only conclusion; the second is that conclusion.

(E) The first is the argument‘s only explicit conclusion; the second is a premise supporting that conclusion.
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First we'll read through the argument to identify the conclusion while seeing how the bolded phrases can be interpreted. Thankfully the first bolded phrase is our conclusion, a lot of the phrases are supporting or providing additional context to "Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive". The second bolded phrase clearly supports the conclusion.

B and D can be eliminated since they don't identify the first phrase as the conclusion.

A can be eliminated since it states there are other conclusions, but we didn't see another conclusion in the argument.

C can be eliminated since the second bolded phrase is not a conclusion, it supports the conclusion.

E is correct since it identifies the first bolded phrase as the conclusion, and the second bolded phrase as support.
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 11 May 2022, 17:32
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brianmontanaweb
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive. In addition to irritating the majority who already behave responsibly, it may undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious. And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting.

The two sections in boldface play which of the following roles in the public health expert's argument?


(A) The first is a conclusion for which support is provided. but is not the argument's main conclusion; the second is an unsupported premise supporting the arguments main conclusion.

(B) The first is a premise supporting the only explicit conclusion; so is the second.

(C) The first is the argument's main conclusion; the second supports that conclusion and is itself a conclusion for which support is provided.



(D) The first is a premise supporting the argument's only conclusion; the second is that conclusion.

(E) The first is the argument‘s only explicit conclusion; the second is a premise supporting that conclusion.

First we'll read through the argument to identify the conclusion while seeing how the bolded phrases can be interpreted. Thankfully the first bolded phrase is our conclusion, a lot of the phrases are supporting or providing additional context to "Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive". The second bolded phrase clearly supports the conclusion.

B and D can be eliminated since they don't identify the first phrase as the conclusion.

A can be eliminated since it states there are other conclusions, but we didn't see another conclusion in the argument.

C can be eliminated since the second bolded phrase is not a conclusion, it supports the conclusion.

E is correct since it identifies the first bolded phrase as the conclusion, and the second bolded phrase as support.
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Thank you, Brian! Would an expert also be able to weigh in? DmitryFarber KarishmaB ?
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 11 May 2022, 22:56
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woohoo921
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the correct choice says that the second bold face is a premise

now as far as i know a premise is something which has to be taken as true and cannot be challenged or its validity cannot be question.
now the second bold face is an opinion of the author and explicitly mentioned by him/her that "it may ....."

please explain egmat
Manukaran
I had the exact same doubt. I have an impression that premise is a fact, while here, the 2nd BF is clearly an opinion and not a fact. So, how is E the right answer?
Yes, a premise is a statement that must be taken as true, and cannot be questioned.

But this doesn't mean that the premise itself must indicate that something is definitely true. Consider this instructional example:

Quote:
Weatherman: Commuters who want to stay dry on their way home should take an umbrella to work today. It's possible that we'll see heavy rainfall between 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m.
The premise (which is bolded) clearly supports the weatherman's conclusion. However, the premise doesn't read, "It will definitely rain." The premise reads, "It's possible that we'll see heavy rainfall."

We take the entire statement to be true, but the statement itself tells us what is possible. It doesn't matter whether this forecast only tells us what might happen. The overall statement is still a valid premise.

Coming back to our OG question, here's the conclusion again:

Quote:
Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive.
And here are the two premises backing up this conclusion:

  • Increasing the urgency of a public health message irritates the majority who already behave responsibly.
  • Increasing the urgency of a public health message undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious.

Both premises support the public health expert's conclusion. The second premise doesn't offer a 100% confirmation that increasing the urgency will undermine all government pronouncements. But we don't need that in order to accept this as a premise supporting the conclusion.

I hope this helps!

GMATNinja
For the person's question above "now as far as i know a premise is something which has to be taken as true and cannot be challenged or its validity cannot be question."

Isn't the difference here that a premise is what THE AUTHOR believes is true, but it does not necessarily need to be a real fact?
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The premises of the argument are the facts given by the author and need to be taken to be true.

Argument 1: There are many different types of mosses. One of them is green and slimy.

We need to take these statements to be true. There must be different types of mosses and one of them must be green and slimy.

Argument 2: Scientists believe that there are many different types of mosses. They think that one of them is green and slimy.

We need to take these statements to be true. Scientists must believe that there are many different types of mosses and one of them is green and slimy. Now whether what the scientists believe is true or not, we cannot say. There may be many different types of mosses and there may not be. All we need to take to be true is that scientists believe there are.

Note that the author's opinions are not premises. They form the conclusion.

i.e. if your argument has a statement that says - he is a bit eccentric, the rest of the statements are likely to explain why the author thinks he is eccentric e.g. He wears tattered clothes but drives fancy cars etc. We need to take "he wears tattered clothes' and 'he drives fancy cars' to be true.
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 19 May 2022, 05:07
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woohoo921
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mikemcgarry DmitryFarber GMATNinja
the correct choice says that the second bold face is a premise

now as far as i know a premise is something which has to be taken as true and cannot be challenged or its validity cannot be question.
now the second bold face is an opinion of the author and explicitly mentioned by him/her that "it may ....."

please explain egmat
Manukaran
I had the exact same doubt. I have an impression that premise is a fact, while here, the 2nd BF is clearly an opinion and not a fact. So, how is E the right answer?
Yes, a premise is a statement that must be taken as true, and cannot be questioned.

But this doesn't mean that the premise itself must indicate that something is definitely true. Consider this instructional example:

Quote:
Weatherman: Commuters who want to stay dry on their way home should take an umbrella to work today. It's possible that we'll see heavy rainfall between 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m.
The premise (which is bolded) clearly supports the weatherman's conclusion. However, the premise doesn't read, "It will definitely rain." The premise reads, "It's possible that we'll see heavy rainfall."

We take the entire statement to be true, but the statement itself tells us what is possible. It doesn't matter whether this forecast only tells us what might happen. The overall statement is still a valid premise.

Coming back to our OG question, here's the conclusion again:

Quote:
Increasing the urgency of a public health message may be counterproductive.
And here are the two premises backing up this conclusion:

  • Increasing the urgency of a public health message irritates the majority who already behave responsibly.
  • Increasing the urgency of a public health message undermine all government pronouncements on health by convincing people that such messages are overly cautious.

Both premises support the public health expert's conclusion. The second premise doesn't offer a 100% confirmation that increasing the urgency will undermine all government pronouncements. But we don't need that in order to accept this as a premise supporting the conclusion.

I hope this helps!

GMATNinja
For the person's question above "now as far as i know a premise is something which has to be taken as true and cannot be challenged or its validity cannot be question."

Isn't the difference here that a premise is what THE AUTHOR believes is true, but it does not necessarily need to be a real fact?
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When evaluating a CR question, a premise is something that must be taken as true in the context of the argument. But that doesn't mean the premise is a fact.

As an example, consider the following argument:

    If money grew on trees, I could afford to buy a Rolls Royce.

Notice the premise of this argument ("if money grew on trees") is not a fact. Nonetheless, in the context of the argument, it serves as a premise. We couldn't weaken the argument by saying "money doesn't grow on trees." For the sake of the argument, we assume the premise is true.

Here's another example:

    Economist: Based on my analysis, unemployment will be lower this year than last year. Thus, anyone who wants a job will probably be able to find one.

The idea that "unemployment will be lower this year" is not a fact. Rather, it's an opinion of the economist. But once again, it serves as premise. In other words, it supports the conclusion that "anyone who wants a job will probably be able to find one."

I hope that helps!
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 05 Jul 2022, 12:42
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GMATNinja - then how does a conclusion differ from an opinion? Aren't both the same? Please help GN.

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Hi GMATNinja.. Quick question.. Can the last sentence of the passage “And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting” be considered as an intermediate conclusion?
Based on my understanding the second boldface portion supports this last statement which is an Intermediate conclusion supporting the first boldface which is the main conclusion of the argument.
In that sense as well, the answer would be C because the BF2 would indirectly be acting as a premise for BF1.
Let me know your thoughts please?
Quote:
(C) The first is the argument's main conclusion; the second supports that conclusion and is itself a conclusion for which support is provided.
  • Notice that choice (C) says, "the second supports that conclusion and is itself a conclusion for which support is provided."
  • Sure, the second BF portion supports the argument's conclusion, but the passage doesn't include any SUPPORT for the 2nd BF statement!
  • The 2nd BF statement is made without any support or evidence, and so we cannot consider it a conclusion for which support is provided.

Asad
Sir,
What's the difference between ''argument's main conclusion'' and ''argument‘s only explicit conclusion''?
  • The first implies that the argument has more than one conclusion (i.e. a "main" conclusion in addition to one or more intermediate conclusions).
  • The second implies that the argument only contains support for one conclusion.

You should be able to eliminate the four wrong answer choices without thinking about that distinction, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. :)

I hope this helps!
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Public health expert: Increasing the urgency of a public health messag 06 Jul 2022, 15:19
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kittle
GMATNinja - then how does a conclusion differ from an opinion? Aren't both the same? Please help GN.

GMATNinja
rock02
Hi GMATNinja.. Quick question.. Can the last sentence of the passage “And there is no reason to believe that those who ignore measured voices will listen to shouting” be considered as an intermediate conclusion?
Based on my understanding the second boldface portion supports this last statement which is an Intermediate conclusion supporting the first boldface which is the main conclusion of the argument.
In that sense as well, the answer would be C because the BF2 would indirectly be acting as a premise for BF1.
Let me know your thoughts please?
Quote:
(C) The first is the argument's main conclusion; the second supports that conclusion and is itself a conclusion for which support is provided.
  • Notice that choice (C) says, "the second supports that conclusion and is itself a conclusion for which support is provided."
  • Sure, the second BF portion supports the argument's conclusion, but the passage doesn't include any SUPPORT for the 2nd BF statement!
  • The 2nd BF statement is made without any support or evidence, and so we cannot consider it a conclusion for which support is provided.

Asad
Sir,
What's the difference between ''argument's main conclusion'' and ''argument‘s only explicit conclusion''?
  • The first implies that the argument has more than one conclusion (i.e. a "main" conclusion in addition to one or more intermediate conclusions).
  • The second implies that the argument only contains support for one conclusion.

You should be able to eliminate the four wrong answer choices without thinking about that distinction, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. :)

I hope this helps!
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That's an interesting question! In some cases, you could probably make a statement that qualifies as both an opinion and a conclusion. Luckily, this passage doesn't require us to draw that distinction.

To eliminate (C), all we need to know is that the author doesn't provide any support for the second BF statement. For that reason alone, (C) can't be right. So fortunately, to get this one right, we don't need to worry about the exact definition of an opinion versus a conclusion.

I hope that helps!
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