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The Farmer's Almanac is predicting that the next two years will yield

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The Farmer's Almanac is predicting that the next two years will yield  [#permalink]

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New post 14 Apr 2019, 09:57
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The Farmer's Almanac is predicting that the next two years will yield 20 percent less rain in the Pacific Northwest. As a result, local merchants are lowering their sales expectations for rain suits by the same percentage.

Which of the following, if true, casts the greatest doubt on the reasoning used by the merchants?

A) Sales of all rainwear have been steadily increasing for the last decade.

B) The forecast for lower rainfall is not limited to the Pacific Northwest but is consistent with predictions nationwide.

C) On average, consumers who purchase rain suits keep them for three years.

D) The Farmer's Almanac has correctly predicted the climate in the Pacific Northwest for the past fifteen years.

E) Research has demonstrated that most consumers purchase rain suits for their comfort and not because of the rain.

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Re: The Farmer's Almanac is predicting that the next two years will yield  [#permalink]

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New post 14 Apr 2019, 12:53
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I think its E because it gives another reason why people buy rain coats.

C was tricky but since the prediction of less rain is for 2 years and people buy every 3 years. It sort of strengthens

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Re: The Farmer's Almanac is predicting that the next two years will yield  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Apr 2019, 09:19
Sanjeetgujrall wrote:
I think its E because it gives another reason why people buy rain coats.

C was tricky but since the prediction of less rain is for 2 years and people buy every 3 years. It sort of strengthens

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+1 for (E).....
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Re: The Farmer's Almanac is predicting that the next two years will yield  [#permalink]

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New post 16 Apr 2019, 10:31
Choice E is good because if the main reason for buying is not connected to the rain then we can safely infer that option
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Re: The Farmer's Almanac is predicting that the next two years will yield  [#permalink]

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New post 21 Apr 2019, 10:38
The Farmer's Almanac is predicting that the next two years will yield 20 percent less rain in the Pacific Northwest. As a result, local merchants are lowering their sales expectations for rain suits by the same percentage.

Conclusion- local merchants are lowering their sales expectations for rain suits by 20%
Type-weaken
The argument establishes causality between the amount of rain and the sale of rain suits

A) Sales of all rainwear have been steadily increasing for the last decade.- irrelevant, we don't know the trend of rainfall in the last decade

B) The forecast for lower rainfall is not limited to the Pacific Northwest but is consistent with predictions nationwide.- irrelevant

C) On average, consumers who purchase rain suits keep them for three years.- incorrect; we don't know when customers in the Pacific Northwest last bought the rain suits

D) The Farmer's Almanac has correctly predicted the climate in the Pacific Northwest for the past fifteen years.- irrelevant

E) Research has demonstrated that most consumers purchase rain suits for their comfort and not because of the rain.- Correct, there is no causal relationship and thus our argument falls apart

Answer E
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Re: The Farmer's Almanac is predicting that the next two years will yield   [#permalink] 21 Apr 2019, 10:38
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