The correct answer is option (E). Gist of the passage:1. Ythex has developed a diesel engine
2. This engine has 30% less particulate pollution than the engine made by the main rival, Onez
3. Onez is currently widely used in Marania
4. Ythex's engine costs more than the Onex engine
5. Ythex's engine is well-suited for use in the thriving (i.e. doing well) warehousing businesses in Marania, despite the higher cost because
a) The Maranian government plans to ban diesel engines with >80% of the current particulate emission
b) Onez will most probably not be able to re-tool their engine to meet this target
6.
Conclusion: if the ban is passed,
Ythex engine should sell well in Marania after that time (after the ban)Understanding the math in the passage:Say, current Particulate emission standard of Marania = 100 ppm (can try with any value!)
New accepted emission = 80% of 100 ppm = 80 ppm
Say current particulate emission of Onez engine = 99 ppm (has to be <=100 else Onex would not have been allowed even in the present case).
Onez will not be able to improve upon this, so he will not be able to sell after the ban
expected particulate emission of Ythex engine = 70% of 99 ppm = 69 ppm <80 ppm. (whichever values we assume, this will hold true!)
This is the author's logic when he concludes that Ythex will be able to sell well after the ban. Ythex will meet new criteria, Onez will not.
Question: Find the assumption in the argument
Thought Process:In what scenario would Ythex engine not sell well in Marania, even after the ban?
Given:
1. Ban will be enforced on engines with >80% of previous emission standard
2. Ythex will meet the new criteria, but Onez will not
Condition 1: What if the ban is not rigorously applied in Marania? i.e. ban on paper, but in reality, companies are still buying Onez engines despite the ban? Then, despite the ban, Ythex may not sell well, as companies still buy Onez.
Assumption 1: The ban is enforced in Marania at a significantly large levelCondition 2: What if there enters some other player in the market, whose engine also meets the criteria, and for some reason (say, better output) end up being more popular than Ythex? Then, Onez may not sell, but this other competitor's engine will sell well instead of Ythex.
Assumption 2: No other competitor for Ythex will enter the market with an engine that also meets the criteria but is significantly more popular than Ythex's engine.
Let us look at the answer choices.
A. Marania's warehousing and transshipment business buys more diesel engines of any size than other types of engines.Out of scope. This only implies that more diesel engines are bought. It does not impact the argument about Ythex selling well in the market after the ban.
B. Ythex is likely to be able to reduce the cost of its small diesel engine within the next two years.The cost of the engine is irrelevant. The argument does not concern the cost aspect at all. For all we know, despite high cost, the product may sell well as it is the best quality product. Hence, this assumption when negated will not definitely break the conclusion.
C. The Maranian government is generally favorable to anti-pollution regulations.Irrelevant. What the Maranian government favours or does not favour has no bearing on the argument. This cannot be the assumption.
D. The government's ban on high levels of pollution caused by diesel engines, if passed, will not be difficult to enforce.I see most folks are confused about this option. Let me try to clarify why this option is not the correct answer!
If you have followed my analysis, you will see this closely resembles my assumption 1. But still, this is not the correct answer.
Negated: The government's ban will be difficult to enforce.
Difficult to enforce does not mean impossible to enforce.
Despite the difficulty in enforcing the ban, the government may well be able to enforce the ban to a significant enough degree that most companies will have to buy Ythex. Hence, Ythex can still sell well despite the difficulty in enforcing the ban.
Or in other words,
this assumption when negated will not definitely break the conclusion.E. The other manufacturers of small diesel engines in Marania, if there are any, have not produced an engine as popular and clean-running as Ythex's new engine. This is in line with our assumption 2. If some other manufacturer has brought in a diesel engine that meets the criteria and is as popular than Ythex's engine, then Ythex's engine will definitely not sell well. This definitely breaks the conclusion.
The key word is 'popular'. That tells us that this other engine will eat into the market that Ythex had hoped to capture. In other words, Ythex would not do well by the estimates they had made.
If you expected to capture 90% of the market after the ban, and captured only 45% (because of an equally popular competitor), would you be able to claim that you have sold well? This is the reasoning for why Ythex would not sell "well". Hence, the negated assumption definitely breaks the conclusion.
Cheers!