Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign during which, most people believed, the voters' perceptions of candidates were formed. It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. In those cases, the losing candidates would have been well advised to have forgone early spending and instead saved funds for television advertisements late in their campaigns.

Which of the following inferences can be most reasonably drawn from the information in the passage above?


A) Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.

B) Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.

C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.

D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.

E) Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.


The argument is similar to the following link, but the question stem and options are different here: http://gmatclub.com/forum/traditionally ... 13345.html
_________________

Do not forget to hit the Kudos button on your left if you find my post helpful

Collection of some good questions on Number System

From the given argument, how do know that things are not solidified even in the last few days of campaigning?
Am I missing something in the argument?
_________________

Do not forget to hit the Kudos button on your left if you find my post helpful

Collection of some good questions on Number System

I suppose, public opinions go through a constant flux until almost the election day and contestants who were leading the polls in the early days might then be take a downward plunge as an opponent intensifies his TV campaigns right at the end of the campaign.
So, this gradual curve makes it difficult for polls to accurately measure the pulse and predict an outcome.
I believe, polls eat the curve ball majorly because they are dealing with peaks (of popularity), one at the start and one towards the end of the campaign and the pace of the change makes it all the more difficult to pick winners!
Hope this was helpful!

Hi,

Only C and D come close to be the answer.

I rejected C because "often"... well nothing is told about the frequency with which inaccurate poll results occur.

D takes a more measured and mature approach by saying.. "may not accurately". C is too strong a statement to be true.

Regards,
Dom.

C makes a lot more sense than D. Though the flaw in C is mainly the word "often" - it had happened, but nobody can with certainty say that it happened often.

But, regarding answer D), where in the argument can one read that "polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election?"

Eager to see the official explanation. Essentially nothing really seems right at the first glance. Difficult one.

Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign during which, most people believed, the voters' perceptions of candidates were formed. It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. In those cases, the losing candidates would have been well advisedto have forgone early spending and instead saved funds for television advertisements late in their campaigns.

Which of the following inferences can be most reasonably drawn from the information in the passage above?
A Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.
B Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.
C Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.
D Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.
E Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.


Hi everybody,
Contrary to the discussion, which I went through later, I had come to the answer choice D naturally. I would like to share my reasoning.
The conclusion here is not just the fact that later campaigns are more productive than the earlier ones, but that a losing candidates would have been well advised to focus on the later campaigns. Think about it, if public opinion polls preceding a major election could accurately predict the outcome of an election, what is the point in advising a losing candidate?? If we already know who's gonna win, the losing guy can not be well advised to save funds for television advertisements.
So, polls preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election. -> D.
Experts pls comment.

Binit.

I can understand the reasoning behind why you would pick C over D. The logic presented in the statements is as follows:

C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.
Ask yourself: does the opinion poll inaccurately reflect the mood in the early stages of the campaign? The point is not to question the validity of the polls. In fact the author reassures us by stating '[...] elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races.' We can discard C solely on the fact that it counters what the author is saying, namely that the polls show evidence that a race can be decided during the days prior to the election.

D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.
We are told in the passage that the success of a candidate is not necessarily decided in the early stages. It may even be a close call until the very last day. The polls might not be accurate, per se, but the polls can still show evidence that a race may be decided in the final days of the election.

Hope it helps!

Hello from the GMAT Club VerbalBot!

Thanks to another GMAT Club member, I have just discovered this valuable topic, yet it had no discussion for over a year. I am now bumping it up - doing my job. I think you may find it valuable (esp those replies with Kudos).

Want to see all other topics I dig out? Follow me (click follow button on profile). You will receive a summary of all topics I bump in your profile area as well as via email.
_________________

-
April 2018: New Forum dedicated to Verbal Strategies, Guides, and Resources