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Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their

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Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 18 Sep 2018, 21:10
10
25
00:00
A
B
C
D
E

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  95% (hard)

Question Stats:

42% (02:22) correct 58% (02:24) wrong based on 851 sessions

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Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign during which, most people believed, the voters' perceptions of candidates were formed. It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. In those cases, the losing candidates would have been well advised to have forgone early spending and instead saved funds for television advertisements late in their campaigns.

Which of the following inferences can be most reasonably drawn from the information in the passage above?


A) Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.

B) Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.

C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.

D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.

E) Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.


The argument is similar to the following link, but the question stem and options are different here: http://gmatclub.com/forum/traditionally ... 13345.html

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Originally posted by TirthankarP on 31 Aug 2013, 09:29.
Last edited by Bunuel on 18 Sep 2018, 21:10, edited 1 time in total.
Renamed the topic and edited the question.
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 31 Aug 2013, 20:03
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Think about what the passage is supporting. It's supporting the case where elections can take a twist in the last few days. That means predictions early on will be inaccurate and even in last few days, things are not solidified.

If things are not solidified, then a poll taken a few days before can show results different from a poll taken one day before and even the day of. The unpredictable nature supports the fact that even a poll taken a few days before may not necessarily be the same as the outcome.

This utilizes the gmatpill inference framework, cr framework #8

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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Sep 2013, 00:03
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GMATPill wrote:
even in last few days, things are not solidified.


From the given argument, how do know that things are not solidified even in the last few days of campaigning?
Am I missing something in the argument? :roll:
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Jul 2014, 11:57
TirthankarP wrote:
GMATPill wrote:
even in last few days, things are not solidified.


From the given argument, how do know that things are not solidified even in the last few days of campaigning?
Am I missing something in the argument? :roll:

Not seeing it too....
Anyone care to point it out?
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Jul 2014, 12:39
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ronr34 wrote:
TirthankarP wrote:
GMATPill wrote:
even in last few days, things are not solidified.


From the given argument, how do know that things are not solidified even in the last few days of campaigning?
Am I missing something in the argument? :roll:

Not seeing it too....
Anyone care to point it out?


I suppose, public opinions go through a constant flux until almost the election day and contestants who were leading the polls in the early days might then be take a downward plunge as an opponent intensifies his TV campaigns right at the end of the campaign.
So, this gradual curve makes it difficult for polls to accurately measure the pulse and predict an outcome.
I believe, polls eat the curve ball majorly because they are dealing with peaks (of popularity), one at the start and one towards the end of the campaign and the pace of the change makes it all the more difficult to pick winners!
Hope this was helpful!
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Jul 2014, 21:54
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TirthankarP wrote:
Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign during which, most people believed, the voters' perceptions of candidates were formed. It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. In those cases, the losing candidates would have been well advised to have forgone early spending and instead saved funds for television advertisements late in their campaigns.

Which of the following inferences can be most reasonably drawn from the information in the passage above?

A) Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.
B) Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.
C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.
D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.
E) Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.


note...... opinion polls are the ones taken during election..... these are taken as presumably correct.......
therefore the opinion polls taken before elections MAY be may not be correct.................
hence "d".......
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 21 Sep 2015, 03:15
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Hi,

Only C and D come close to be the answer.

I rejected C because "often"... well nothing is told about the frequency with which inaccurate poll results occur.

D takes a more measured and mature approach by saying.. "may not accurately". C is too strong a statement to be true.

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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Sep 2015, 06:32
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C is not the correct answer because there is nothing said about the mood of the electorate in early stages.

D is correct because "elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races".

The above quotation is basically saying that "there have been cases where public opinion polls could not determine the winner, it was yet to be determined (aka "it was still a race to be decided") which means that "polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome" is correct.
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Oct 2015, 14:19
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C makes a lot more sense than D. Though the flaw in C is mainly the word "often" - it had happened, but nobody can with certainty say that it happened often.

But, regarding answer D), where in the argument can one read that "polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election?"

Eager to see the official explanation. Essentially nothing really seems right at the first glance. Difficult one.
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 03 Nov 2015, 02:36
The argument says that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. The meaning conveyed here is that there are several examples of this new findings, which can also be interpreted in a way that many such cases were reported in which this new finding is found to be true. This whole thing indirectly means that there are some, even if just 1 out of 100, cases where this new finding did not work. If this finding had been correct in 100% of the cases then the argument would have said-- public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence that in all recent elections this formula could have worked if it were applied.
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 18 Nov 2015, 13:28
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Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign during which, most people believed, the voters' perceptions of candidates were formed. It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. In those cases, the losing candidates would have been well advisedto have forgone early spending and instead saved funds for television advertisements late in their campaigns.

Which of the following inferences can be most reasonably drawn from the information in the passage above?
A Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.
B Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.
C Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.
D Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.
E Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.



Hi everybody,
Contrary to the discussion, which I went through later, I had come to the answer choice D naturally. I would like to share my reasoning.
The conclusion here is not just the fact that later campaigns are more productive than the earlier ones, but that a losing candidates would have been well advised to focus on the later campaigns. Think about it, if public opinion polls preceding a major election could accurately predict the outcome of an election, what is the point in advising a losing candidate?? If we already know who's gonna win, the losing guy can not be well advised to save funds for television advertisements.
So, polls preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election. -> D.
Experts pls comment.

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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Mar 2016, 14:40
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Came down to C and D. Picked D.

C - Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign. WRONG!! The polls don't inaccurately reflect the mood. They are reflecting the mood in the early stages which does not match the mood in the later stages.
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Mar 2017, 11:05
I can understand the reasoning behind why you would pick C over D. The logic presented in the statements is as follows:

C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.
Ask yourself: does the opinion poll inaccurately reflect the mood in the early stages of the campaign? The point is not to question the validity of the polls. In fact the author reassures us by stating '[...] elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races.' We can discard C solely on the fact that it counters what the author is saying, namely that the polls show evidence that a race can be decided during the days prior to the election.

D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.
We are told in the passage that the success of a candidate is not necessarily decided in the early stages. It may even be a close call until the very last day. The polls might not be accurate, per se, but the polls can still show evidence that a race may be decided in the final days of the election.

Hope it helps!
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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New post 26 Jun 2017, 09:23
A) Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented. OOS
B) Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.OOS
C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.Polls aren't inaccurate, but opinions change during election.
D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.Correct because opinions may change and so may outcome of the election.
E) Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.OOS
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Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their  [#permalink]

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