rocky620 wrote:
IMO, as per the passage:
Effects of campaigns in early stages of election: A candidate can get mostly predictive outcome, and hence will concentrate on those campaigns. (a positive outcome)
The passage shifts it focus, by including
It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election dayThis finding is a positive outcome of Campaigns preceding election days, but there is a buzz word
CAN BE. So, now we can even get the predictive outcome in the days preceding elections, but it does not mean that the Campaigns in early stages will not have predictive outcome.
Then, the passage mentions a
shortcoming of late campaigns, by deducing from the defeat of candidates, that the candidates who lost the election would not have spent on early campaigns, but rather on later stages (television advertisement is just a means).
So, for
Effects of campaigns in early stages of election: We are given only positive effects. (negative effects may be there but they are not mentioned in the passage)
Effects of campaigns in later stages of election: We are given positive and negative effects (explicitly) in the passage.
Between C & D:
I would say that since Option D is mentioned, it can be inferred most reasonably, but not Option C (for the reasons mentioned above).
Hi, Experts kindly validate the above reasoning:
nightblade354,
AndrewN,
GMATNinjaTwo,
GMATNinjaHello,
rocky620. I have to say that once again, the
language of the answer choices guided my hand quite a bit, and you drew attention to the issue yourself in your post. Specifically, the soft language—
may not—in (D) proves harder to argue against. (If I say it may not rain, what can we necessarily predict about the weather?) Regarding (C), how about we take a closer look at just what it is saying?
Quote:
C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.
First off,
often inaccurately is doubly definitive. Even if we had proof in the passage that public opinion polls were inaccurate, a point I will discuss more in a moment, we would still need further evidence that such inaccuracies occurred frequently, and that is not the case here. Then, there is a difference between saying that early polls inaccurately
predict the eventual outcome of a political race and that such polls inaccurately
reflect the views of the electorate. The latter interpretation suggests that people may be falsifying their preferences in a poll. There is no evidence in the passage to support such a claim. It seems as though people may feel a certain way in the early stages of a political race, based on poll results, but voters may feel the same way or differently by the time they actually cast their votes.
You reasoned through a tough question well. Thank you for calling my attention to it.
- Andrew