Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their

Question

Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign during which, most people believed, the voters' perceptions of candidates were formed. It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. In those cases, the losing candidates would have been well advised to have forgone early spending and instead saved funds for television advertisements late in their campaigns.

Which of the following inferences can be most reasonably drawn from the information in the passage above?

A) Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.

B) Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.

C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.

D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.

E) Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.

The argument is similar to the following link, but the question stem and options are different here: https://gmatclub.com/forum/traditionally ... 13345.html

b9n920 · Accepted Answer

Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign during which, most people believed, the voters' perceptions of candidates were formed. It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. In those cases, the  losing candidates would have been well advised to have forgone early spending and instead saved funds for television advertisements late in their campaigns.

Which of the following inferences can be most reasonably drawn from the information in the passage above?
A Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.
B Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.
C Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.
D Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.
E Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.

Hi everybody,
 Contrary to the discussion, which I went through later, I had come to the answer choice D naturally. I would like to share my reasoning. 
The conclusion here is not just the fact that later campaigns are more productive than the earlier ones, but  that a losing candidates would have been well advised to focus on the later campaigns . Think about it, if public opinion polls preceding a major election  could  accurately predict the outcome of an election, what is the point in advising a losing candidate?? If we already know who's gonna win, the losing guy can not be  well advised  to save funds for television advertisements.
So, polls preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election. -> D.
Experts pls comment.

Binit.

GMATPill · Answer

Think about what the passage is supporting. It's supporting the case where elections can take a twist in the last few days. That means predictions early on will be inaccurate and even in last few days, things are not solidified.

If things are not solidified, then a poll taken a few days before can show results different from a poll taken one day before and even the day of. The unpredictable nature supports the fact that even a poll taken a few days before may not necessarily be the same as the outcome.

This utilizes the gmatpill inference framework, cr framework #8

Posted from my mobile device

TirthankarP · Answer

From the given argument, how do know that things are not solidified even in the last few days of campaigning? Am I missing something in the argument? :roll:

ronr34 · Answer

Not seeing it too....
Anyone care to point it out?

Kconfused · Answer

I suppose, public opinions go through a constant flux until almost the election day and contestants who were leading the polls in the early days might then be take a downward plunge as an opponent intensifies his TV campaigns right at the end of the campaign.
So, this gradual curve makes it difficult for polls to accurately measure the pulse and predict an outcome. 
I believe, polls eat the curve ball majorly because they are dealing with peaks (of popularity), one at the start and one towards the end of the campaign and the pace of the change makes it all the more difficult to pick winners!
Hope this was helpful!

semwal · Answer

note...... opinion polls are the ones taken during election..... these are taken as presumably correct.......
therefore the opinion polls taken before elections MAY be may not be correct.................
hence "d".......

dominicraj · Answer

Hi,

Only C and D come close to be the answer.

I rejected C because "often"... well nothing is told about the frequency with which inaccurate poll results occur.

D takes a more measured and mature approach by saying.. "may not accurately". C is too strong a statement to be true.

Regards,
Dom.

ggurface · Answer

C is not the correct answer because there is nothing said about the mood of the electorate in early stages.

D is correct because "elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races".

The above quotation is basically saying that "there have been cases where public opinion polls could not determine the winner, it was yet to be determined (aka "it was still a race to be decided") which means that "polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome" is correct.

Guilio · Answer

C makes a lot more sense than D. Though the flaw in C is mainly the word "often" - it had happened, but nobody can with certainty say that it happened often.

But, regarding answer D), where in the argument can one read that "polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election?"

Eager to see the official explanation. Essentially nothing really seems right at the first glance. Difficult one.

AryamaDuttaSaikia · Answer

The argument says that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. The meaning conveyed here is that there are several examples of this new findings, which can also be interpreted in a way that many such cases were reported in which this new finding is found to be true. This whole thing indirectly means that there are some, even if just 1 out of 100, cases where this new finding did not work. If this finding had been correct in 100% of the cases then the argument would have said-- public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence that in all recent elections this formula could have worked if it were applied.

dina98 · Answer

Came down to C and D. Picked D.

C - Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign. WRONG!! The polls don't inaccurately reflect the mood. They are reflecting the mood in the early stages which does not match the mood in the later stages.

CFGauss · Answer

I can understand the reasoning behind why you would pick C over D. The logic presented in the statements is as follows:

C) Public opinion polls often  inaccurately reflect the mood  of the electorate  in the early stages  of a political campaign.
Ask yourself: does the opinion poll inaccurately reflect the mood in the early stages of the campaign? The point is not to question the validity of the polls. In fact the author reassures us by stating '  elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day;  public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. ' We can discard C solely on the fact that it counters what the author is saying, namely that the polls  show evidence  that a race can be decided during the days prior to the election.

D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.
We are told in the passage that the success of a candidate is not necessarily decided in the early stages. It may even be a close call until the very last day. The polls might not be accurate, per se, but the polls can still  show evidence  that a race may be decided in the final days of the election.

Hope it helps!

roadrunner · Answer

A) Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.  OOS 
B) Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns. OOS 
C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign. Polls aren't inaccurate, but opinions change during election. 
D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election. Correct because opinions may change and so may outcome of the election. 
E) Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign. OOS

cledgard · Answer

The only facts in the stimulus are: " Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign ", " elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day ", and " public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races ." The other statements are opinions, so we  cannot infer  anything from those.

There is little that we can infer from these facts, so we cannot say that anything  must be true . Therefore, we must look for an  answer that does not "actually" infer anything .

The only answer that does not infer anything is  D : "Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election."

If we pay attention, this answer uses the word "may"; thus the polls   may not   accurately predict the outcome... or   they may  . In any case, this answer  MUST BE TRUE .
The moment we say something "  MAY  " happen, we can infer that it also "  MAY NOT  " happen.

This explanation also covers the statement given by  GMATPill  that "even a poll taken a few days before   may not   necessarily be the same as the outcome."

Correct answer:  D

WizardStatistics · Answer

Ugh darn, I was between C & D. Was leaning towards D and saw the 'may' but wasn't so sure because at that. Marked C as really weak at first but then reviewed it over again since everything was pretty weak and then chose C . Had a tough time choosing between the two and ihould have paid attention to 'mood' and 'often' as signs that C was wrong.

This always happens to me. oh well

This always happens to me. oh well

rocky620 · Answer

IMO, as per the passage:

Effects of campaigns in early stages of election:  A candidate can get mostly predictive outcome, and hence will concentrate on those campaigns. (a positive outcome)

The passage shifts it focus, by including   It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day  
This finding is a positive outcome of Campaigns preceding election days, but there is a buzz word  CAN BE . So, now we can even get the predictive outcome in the days preceding elections, but it does not mean that the Campaigns in early stages will not have predictive outcome.

Then, the passage mentions a  shortcoming of late campaigns , by deducing from the defeat of candidates, that the candidates who lost the election would not have spent on early campaigns, but rather on later stages (television advertisement is just a means).

So, for
 Effects of campaigns in early stages of election:  We are given only positive effects. (negative effects may be there but they are not mentioned in the passage)
 Effects of campaigns in later stages of election:  We are given positive and negative effects (explicitly) in the passage.

Between C & D:

I would say that since Option D is mentioned, it can be inferred most reasonably, but not Option C (for the reasons mentioned above).

Hi, Experts kindly validate the above reasoning:
 nightblade354 ,  AndrewN ,  GMATNinjaTwo ,  GMATNinja

AndrewN · Answer

Hello,   rocky620  . I have to say that once again, the  language  of the answer choices guided my hand quite a bit, and you drew attention to the issue yourself in your post. Specifically, the soft language— may not —in (D) proves harder to argue against. (If I say it may not rain, what can we necessarily predict about the weather?) Regarding (C), how about we take a closer look at just what it is saying?

First off,  often inaccurately  is doubly definitive. Even if we had proof in the passage that public opinion polls were inaccurate, a point I will discuss more in a moment, we would still need further evidence that such inaccuracies occurred frequently, and that is not the case here. Then, there is a difference between saying that early polls inaccurately  predict  the eventual outcome of a political race and that such polls inaccurately  reflect  the views of the electorate. The latter interpretation suggests that people may be falsifying their preferences in a poll. There is no evidence in the passage to support such a claim. It seems as though people may feel a certain way in the early stages of a political race, based on poll results, but voters may feel the same way or differently by the time they actually cast their votes.

You reasoned through a tough question well. Thank you for calling my attention to it.

- Andrew

NPProb · Answer

is always wrong, no matter what else is said in other choices, this is because, which is very tricky and subtle, that:
Public opinion polls   will always accurately reflect   the mood of the electorate   when the polls take place  , they just   couldn't predict   the ultimate   outcome   of the election!

Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their

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Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their

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