Last visit was: 24 Apr 2024, 23:37 It is currently 24 Apr 2024, 23:37

Close
GMAT Club Daily Prep
Thank you for using the timer - this advanced tool can estimate your performance and suggest more practice questions. We have subscribed you to Daily Prep Questions via email.

Customized
for You

we will pick new questions that match your level based on your Timer History

Track
Your Progress

every week, we’ll send you an estimated GMAT score based on your performance

Practice
Pays

we will pick new questions that match your level based on your Timer History
Not interested in getting valuable practice questions and articles delivered to your email? No problem, unsubscribe here.
Close
Request Expert Reply
Confirm Cancel
SORT BY:
Date
Tags:
Show Tags
Hide Tags
User avatar
Manager
Manager
Joined: 29 Apr 2013
Posts: 81
Own Kudos [?]: 878 [67]
Given Kudos: 53
Location: India
Concentration: General Management, Strategy
GMAT Date: 11-06-2013
WE:Programming (Telecommunications)
Send PM
Most Helpful Reply
SVP
SVP
Joined: 14 Apr 2009
Posts: 2261
Own Kudos [?]: 3671 [12]
Given Kudos: 8
Location: New York, NY
Send PM
User avatar
Manager
Manager
Joined: 02 Nov 2014
Posts: 152
Own Kudos [?]: 431 [7]
Given Kudos: 75
GMAT Date: 08-04-2015
Send PM
General Discussion
User avatar
Manager
Manager
Joined: 29 Apr 2013
Posts: 81
Own Kudos [?]: 878 [1]
Given Kudos: 53
Location: India
Concentration: General Management, Strategy
GMAT Date: 11-06-2013
WE:Programming (Telecommunications)
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
1
Kudos
GMATPill wrote:
even in last few days, things are not solidified.


From the given argument, how do know that things are not solidified even in the last few days of campaigning?
Am I missing something in the argument? :roll:
User avatar
Senior Manager
Senior Manager
Joined: 08 Apr 2012
Posts: 259
Own Kudos [?]: 239 [0]
Given Kudos: 58
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
TirthankarP wrote:
GMATPill wrote:
even in last few days, things are not solidified.


From the given argument, how do know that things are not solidified even in the last few days of campaigning?
Am I missing something in the argument? :roll:

Not seeing it too....
Anyone care to point it out?
avatar
Intern
Intern
Joined: 17 Oct 2013
Posts: 34
Own Kudos [?]: 66 [2]
Given Kudos: 549
Location: India
Concentration: Strategy, Statistics
Schools: ISB '17 (A)
GMAT 1: 730 Q49 V40
WE:Analyst (Computer Software)
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
2
Kudos
ronr34 wrote:
TirthankarP wrote:
GMATPill wrote:
even in last few days, things are not solidified.


From the given argument, how do know that things are not solidified even in the last few days of campaigning?
Am I missing something in the argument? :roll:

Not seeing it too....
Anyone care to point it out?


I suppose, public opinions go through a constant flux until almost the election day and contestants who were leading the polls in the early days might then be take a downward plunge as an opponent intensifies his TV campaigns right at the end of the campaign.
So, this gradual curve makes it difficult for polls to accurately measure the pulse and predict an outcome.
I believe, polls eat the curve ball majorly because they are dealing with peaks (of popularity), one at the start and one towards the end of the campaign and the pace of the change makes it all the more difficult to pick winners!
Hope this was helpful!
Current Student
Joined: 04 May 2013
Posts: 218
Own Kudos [?]: 474 [3]
Given Kudos: 70
Location: India
Concentration: Operations, Human Resources
Schools: XLRI GM"18
GPA: 4
WE:Human Resources (Human Resources)
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
1
Kudos
2
Bookmarks
TirthankarP wrote:
Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign during which, most people believed, the voters' perceptions of candidates were formed. It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. In those cases, the losing candidates would have been well advised to have forgone early spending and instead saved funds for television advertisements late in their campaigns.

Which of the following inferences can be most reasonably drawn from the information in the passage above?

A) Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.
B) Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.
C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.
D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.
E) Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.


note...... opinion polls are the ones taken during election..... these are taken as presumably correct.......
therefore the opinion polls taken before elections MAY be may not be correct.................
hence "d".......
Senior Manager
Senior Manager
Joined: 05 Apr 2015
Posts: 289
Own Kudos [?]: 715 [4]
Given Kudos: 39
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
4
Kudos
Hi,

Only C and D come close to be the answer.

I rejected C because "often"... well nothing is told about the frequency with which inaccurate poll results occur.

D takes a more measured and mature approach by saying.. "may not accurately". C is too strong a statement to be true.

Regards,
Dom.
User avatar
Manager
Manager
Joined: 09 Aug 2015
Posts: 73
Own Kudos [?]: 77 [2]
Given Kudos: 7
GMAT 1: 770 Q51 V44
GPA: 2.3
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
2
Kudos
C is not the correct answer because there is nothing said about the mood of the electorate in early stages.

D is correct because "elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races".

The above quotation is basically saying that "there have been cases where public opinion polls could not determine the winner, it was yet to be determined (aka "it was still a race to be decided") which means that "polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome" is correct.
avatar
Manager
Manager
Joined: 12 Sep 2015
Posts: 60
Own Kudos [?]: 34 [1]
Given Kudos: 24
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
1
Kudos
C makes a lot more sense than D. Though the flaw in C is mainly the word "often" - it had happened, but nobody can with certainty say that it happened often.

But, regarding answer D), where in the argument can one read that "polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election?"

Eager to see the official explanation. Essentially nothing really seems right at the first glance. Difficult one.
User avatar
Jamboree GMAT Instructor
Joined: 15 Jul 2015
Status:GMAT Expert
Affiliations: Jamboree Education Pvt Ltd
Posts: 252
Own Kudos [?]: 654 [0]
Given Kudos: 1
Location: India
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
The argument says that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. The meaning conveyed here is that there are several examples of this new findings, which can also be interpreted in a way that many such cases were reported in which this new finding is found to be true. This whole thing indirectly means that there are some, even if just 1 out of 100, cases where this new finding did not work. If this finding had been correct in 100% of the cases then the argument would have said-- public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence that in all recent elections this formula could have worked if it were applied.
Manager
Manager
Joined: 14 Jul 2014
Posts: 126
Own Kudos [?]: 49 [4]
Given Kudos: 110
Location: United States
Schools: Duke '20 (D)
GMAT 1: 720 Q50 V37
GMAT 2: 600 Q48 V27
GPA: 3.2
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
3
Kudos
1
Bookmarks
Came down to C and D. Picked D.

C - Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign. WRONG!! The polls don't inaccurately reflect the mood. They are reflecting the mood in the early stages which does not match the mood in the later stages.
Intern
Intern
Joined: 22 Jan 2017
Posts: 7
Own Kudos [?]: 9 [0]
Given Kudos: 15
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
I can understand the reasoning behind why you would pick C over D. The logic presented in the statements is as follows:

C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.
Ask yourself: does the opinion poll inaccurately reflect the mood in the early stages of the campaign? The point is not to question the validity of the polls. In fact the author reassures us by stating '[...] elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races.' We can discard C solely on the fact that it counters what the author is saying, namely that the polls show evidence that a race can be decided during the days prior to the election.

D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.
We are told in the passage that the success of a candidate is not necessarily decided in the early stages. It may even be a close call until the very last day. The polls might not be accurate, per se, but the polls can still show evidence that a race may be decided in the final days of the election.

Hope it helps!
Current Student
Joined: 23 Jul 2015
Posts: 126
Own Kudos [?]: 128 [0]
Given Kudos: 31
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
A) Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented. OOS
B) Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.OOS
C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.Polls aren't inaccurate, but opinions change during election.
D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.Correct because opinions may change and so may outcome of the election.
E) Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.OOS
Manager
Manager
Joined: 05 Nov 2012
Status:GMAT Coach
Posts: 170
Own Kudos [?]: 284 [1]
Given Kudos: 65
Location: Peru
GPA: 3.98
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
1
Kudos
TirthankarP wrote:
Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign during which, most people believed, the voters' perceptions of candidates were formed. It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day; public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races. In those cases, the losing candidates would have been well advised to have forgone early spending and instead saved funds for television advertisements late in their campaigns.

Which of the following inferences can be most reasonably drawn from the information in the passage above?


A) Television has had an adverse effect on political campaigns, making them less issue-oriented.

B) Politicians of the pre-television era fail to understand the important role television advertising plays in today's political campaigns.

C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.

D) Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election.

E) Candidates should not try to define the key issues of a race until late in the campaign.


The argument is similar to the following link, but the question stem and options are different here: https://gmatclub.com/forum/traditionally ... 13345.html


The only facts in the stimulus are: "Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their efforts on the early stages of the campaign", "elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day", and "public opinion polls taken during recent elections provide evidence of several such races." The other statements are opinions, so we cannot infer anything from those.

There is little that we can infer from these facts, so we cannot say that anything must be true. Therefore, we must look for an answer that does not "actually" infer anything.

The only answer that does not infer anything is D: "Polls taken in the days preceding a major election may not accurately predict the outcome of an election."

If we pay attention, this answer uses the word "may"; thus the polls may not accurately predict the outcome... or they may. In any case, this answer MUST BE TRUE.
The moment we say something "MAY" happen, we can infer that it also "MAY NOT" happen.

This explanation also covers the statement given by GMATPill that "even a poll taken a few days before may not necessarily be the same as the outcome."

Correct answer: D
Intern
Intern
Joined: 23 Sep 2020
Posts: 4
Own Kudos [?]: 2 [0]
Given Kudos: 10
Send PM
Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
Ugh darn, I was between C & D. Was leaning towards D and saw the 'may' but wasn't so sure because at that. Marked C as really weak at first but then reviewed it over again since everything was pretty weak and then chose C . Had a tough time choosing between the two and ihould have paid attention to 'mood' and 'often' as signs that C was wrong.

This always happens to me. oh well
Retired Moderator
Joined: 10 Nov 2018
Posts: 538
Own Kudos [?]: 436 [0]
Given Kudos: 229
Location: India
Concentration: General Management, Strategy
GMAT 1: 590 Q49 V22
WE:Other (Retail)
Send PM
Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
IMO, as per the passage:

Effects of campaigns in early stages of election: A candidate can get mostly predictive outcome, and hence will concentrate on those campaigns. (a positive outcome)

The passage shifts it focus, by including It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day
This finding is a positive outcome of Campaigns preceding election days, but there is a buzz word CAN BE. So, now we can even get the predictive outcome in the days preceding elections, but it does not mean that the Campaigns in early stages will not have predictive outcome.

Then, the passage mentions a shortcoming of late campaigns, by deducing from the defeat of candidates, that the candidates who lost the election would not have spent on early campaigns, but rather on later stages (television advertisement is just a means).

So, for
Effects of campaigns in early stages of election: We are given only positive effects. (negative effects may be there but they are not mentioned in the passage)
Effects of campaigns in later stages of election: We are given positive and negative effects (explicitly) in the passage.

Between C & D:

I would say that since Option D is mentioned, it can be inferred most reasonably, but not Option C (for the reasons mentioned above).

Hi, Experts kindly validate the above reasoning:
nightblade354, AndrewN, GMATNinjaTwo, GMATNinja
Volunteer Expert
Joined: 16 May 2019
Posts: 3512
Own Kudos [?]: 6858 [2]
Given Kudos: 500
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
2
Kudos
Expert Reply
rocky620 wrote:
IMO, as per the passage:

Effects of campaigns in early stages of election: A candidate can get mostly predictive outcome, and hence will concentrate on those campaigns. (a positive outcome)

The passage shifts it focus, by including It is now becoming clear, however, that elections can be decided in the few days preceding election day
This finding is a positive outcome of Campaigns preceding election days, but there is a buzz word CAN BE. So, now we can even get the predictive outcome in the days preceding elections, but it does not mean that the Campaigns in early stages will not have predictive outcome.

Then, the passage mentions a shortcoming of late campaigns, by deducing from the defeat of candidates, that the candidates who lost the election would not have spent on early campaigns, but rather on later stages (television advertisement is just a means).

So, for
Effects of campaigns in early stages of election: We are given only positive effects. (negative effects may be there but they are not mentioned in the passage)
Effects of campaigns in later stages of election: We are given positive and negative effects (explicitly) in the passage.

Between C & D:

I would say that since Option D is mentioned, it can be inferred most reasonably, but not Option C (for the reasons mentioned above).

Hi, Experts kindly validate the above reasoning:
nightblade354, AndrewN, GMATNinjaTwo, GMATNinja

Hello, rocky620. I have to say that once again, the language of the answer choices guided my hand quite a bit, and you drew attention to the issue yourself in your post. Specifically, the soft language—may not—in (D) proves harder to argue against. (If I say it may not rain, what can we necessarily predict about the weather?) Regarding (C), how about we take a closer look at just what it is saying?

Quote:
C) Public opinion polls often inaccurately reflect the mood of the electorate in the early stages of a political campaign.

First off, often inaccurately is doubly definitive. Even if we had proof in the passage that public opinion polls were inaccurate, a point I will discuss more in a moment, we would still need further evidence that such inaccuracies occurred frequently, and that is not the case here. Then, there is a difference between saying that early polls inaccurately predict the eventual outcome of a political race and that such polls inaccurately reflect the views of the electorate. The latter interpretation suggests that people may be falsifying their preferences in a poll. There is no evidence in the passage to support such a claim. It seems as though people may feel a certain way in the early stages of a political race, based on poll results, but voters may feel the same way or differently by the time they actually cast their votes.

You reasoned through a tough question well. Thank you for calling my attention to it.

- Andrew
User avatar
Non-Human User
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 17214
Own Kudos [?]: 848 [0]
Given Kudos: 0
Send PM
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
Hello from the GMAT Club VerbalBot!

Thanks to another GMAT Club member, I have just discovered this valuable topic, yet it had no discussion for over a year. I am now bumping it up - doing my job. I think you may find it valuable (esp those replies with Kudos).

Want to see all other topics I dig out? Follow me (click follow button on profile). You will receive a summary of all topics I bump in your profile area as well as via email.
GMAT Club Bot
Re: Traditionally, candidates for elected offices have concentrated their [#permalink]
Moderators:
GMAT Club Verbal Expert
6920 posts
GMAT Club Verbal Expert
238 posts
CR Forum Moderator
832 posts

Powered by phpBB © phpBB Group | Emoji artwork provided by EmojiOne