Trump Effect

Question

Now that we know it is going to be Trump, many of my colleagues in US B schools are advising not to go for an MBA in US if not for M7. I am Indian applicant. I have heard it is becoming increasingly tough to find a H1B sponsor from lower ranked B schools. Any thoughts guys?

Narenn · Answer

It's too early to infer anything as such. He has not even assumed the office yet, nor does anyone know what will his policies be towards higher education system. We have just been discussing this issue in the chat room with Stratus Prep's admission expert and according to her no need to read too much into this- Business Schools in the US will continue to want international applicants and we don’t see that changing. You are welcome to join us in the chat mchat.php?fl=menu

anu311 · Answer

It doesnt matter which college in usa you go to ,,H1B visa is a lottery based allocation system...I have heard many Harvard grad had to come back to india after being rejected in the lottery.

CrackMBAnow · Answer

You are talking about the second hurdle my friend. I am talking about the first one, i.e. finding a company to sponsor your H1B. 75% companies who hires MBAs dont sponsor H1B is what i have heard. It is much harder for internationals at lower ranked univs.. I know ppl from Kellogg not finding a job and moving back to India..

bb · Answer

Your speculation is quite valid - Trump has a policy of protectionism (protect our jobs, factories, our whatever....) and is quite opposite of the previous/current administration that thinks we should all get along. It is quite likely that under that agenda, the H1B volume may get revised and cut, though if anything it needs to be increased based on the lottery in the last few years.

You should note that many applicants have been applying for the lottery twice, often even more than that using multiple job applications, so the numbers are inflated by a magnitude.

As to the point about job/recruiting/h1b, yes, it was always harder to find a job as as an H1B applicant and if the number of slots available is decreased, companies will be less likely willing to hire, since they will try to avoid the risk of having an employee for 9 or 12 months and then having to lose them, making it even harder to find a job for an international applicant.

It is quite possible and quite likely but not for sure yet. I could see how some may want to hedge bets with Canadian and European schools.

wizzard · Answer

Hi  bb  and  Narenn ,

Interesting topic. One question that I would love to know your insight: I am an international applicant and let´s say that I just want to get my MBA at a top 10 US business school and I am still not sure of whether I would like to keep working in the US after the program (meaning that the H1B visa is not really an issue to me, at least right now).

So my doubt actually focuses in terms of the MBA application (prior to the program itself; not afterwards).

My question is : Do you think there would be any problem with Student visas? In other words, do you think that Trump presidency could jeopardize international students (regardless of whether they want to stay after the program)?

(Just for the purpose of context: I am South American, with Italian citizenship)

Thank you so much! Looking forward to your reply.

bb · Answer

Hi Wizzard!

Good question - usually the Student Visas are unaffected by various curbs/limitations/etc. It is not always the case but, esp for undergrad, International applicants are a substantial source of income for universities (public and private). International students tend to pay the full tuition and thus cutting this income stream would very negatively affect education in the US in general. I think student visas will be safe or at least will be the last thing to be cut/shut down.

P.S. It seems things are getting somewhat back to normal, though it is hard to tell what normal is anymore.

Best Regards
BB

stonecold · Answer

To begin =>
People are really giving up there GMAT studies until TRUMP-situation in the US normalises.
The Economic Times just wrote a piece => "Donald Trump’s rhetoric leaves Indian students unsure about pursuing higher education in US"

Link to the Article => https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 484871.cms

Hi CrackMBAnow
Here are my 2 cents on this issue.

Lets just say -> You are not the only one worried about the current political scenario in the US.

Remember what happened with UK?
Not long back,UK was sitting on a gold mine.
As you would recall that once UK was the most popular study destination specially among Asians.
Lets talk about India here.
According to the British Council website => After UK's new immigration policy reforms the number of indian students going to the UK reduced by a whooping 25 percent in 2013 and since then loyalty of Indian students towards UK has been on a continuous decline.
Source => https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j ... -mXwAbA_UQ

Now After the much controversial (i am using the word "controversial" here as the majority of the millennials voted against it) BREXIT happened,I think the situation will worsen.
To put it Bluntly => Nobody wants to go to UK anymore (unless its LBS,Oxford,Cambridge or a bunch of few others)

What About US?
I did follow the US-presidential election.
Now, i am a no fan of TRUMP.
In-fact to be quite honest I even dislike him at a certain level.
But i somehow think that he will handle the situation pretty well.

Trump has been flip flooping on the H1-B issue.
In one of the debates when Rubio said that he wants to double the visas ,TRUMP dissed him off by saying he wants to get rid of them.
But at some other interview he said he wants skilled people to stay in the country.
So,i think its quite possible that he might be confused himself.

All in all,I think TRUMP Administration unlike the UK Administration which literally didn't do anything to lure back the indian candidates, will make sure that students feel welcome in the US irrespective of their gender,race,religion and the immigration rules.
I know his campaign was carried out in totally a different tone and perspective but TRUMP being a hardcore business man himself won't let this BILLION Dollar industry dry up on its own based on the speculations.

So to answer your Question=> Yes. I am worried.But i am hopeful.
I am hopeful that Trump will not only make sure that Students feel invited to the US,but its quite possible that people may actually want to study in the US even more now.
Quoting from yet another TRUMP interview he said => he wants to stop the entrepreneurs with great Potential from leaving the united states.

He even said he exploited the H1-B visas himself.
So there might be a change in policy.

But will it be too Drastic?
I don't think so.

P.S=> Don't get me wrong , I myself am a worried candidate who is keen on applying next year.

TRUMP on INDIAN Students =>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBKEKD5rHVM[

In the end i think what bb said makes so much sense here => "These days It is very hard to tell what normal is"

wizzard · Answer

Hi bb,
Thank you so much for your answer! Your point is valid and reassuring. And I agree with you that we may not know what normal is anymore.

Giving it a second thought, if some international students (the ones who will only pursue an MBA if they are guaranteed they can stay in the US afterwards) do not apply to the US given this issue, this situation might actually benefit international students who would pursue their MBA regardless of the H1B issue. My point is that this second group would have a bit less competition in terms of the "international/diversity element" and I am sure that business schools would want to guarantee their own diversity component and statistics (regardless who the President is) since this is a major competitive advantage for them. Does this make any sense to you?

I know everything is still speculation. We´ll have to wait and see what happens!

Cheers

ARINGO · Answer

We at ARINGO get asked about this so much that we wrote a blog post about it, summarizing our thoughts about the topic. While the post is not about Indian applicants in particular, I think it might still be an interesting post for you to read: https://aringo.com/what-does-donald-tru ... ed-states/

Also, several leading financial newspapers have covered the topic recently so you might want to read what they have to say about it too. But basically, no-one can know for sure what will happen but there is reason to believe that the changes will not be as dramatic as some people are already assuming!

CrackMBAnow · Answer

"Experts say it is best to avoid the US unless the opportunity is not available anywhere else in the world. It might be best to not go chasing the H1B visa for now, they say. "

Read more https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wea ... 829959.cms

https://www.happyschools.com/leaked-memo ... pt-h4-ead/

Prospects do not look green at the moment!

CrackMBAnow · Answer

Now This: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 888616.cms

bb · Answer

Slightly more friendly site to a western eye: https://money.cnn.com/2017/01/31/technol ... companies/ The latest immigration snafu has caused a 5% drop of a number of tech companies in India: PS. Very odd title for the article and a very odd video too! It seems CNN completely missed the point.

Seeker2802 · Answer

They are planning to increase the minimum pay for H1B workers to $130k, which would be an issue to the companies who recruit foreign students.

MBABoss · Answer

For those entering the tech sector https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/31/in-si ... vancouver/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

nive28 · Answer

This article clears the air - https://e-gmat.com/blog/uncategorized/c ... applicants

MAH · Answer

As this question is a few months old, I'd like to know more based on the above quoted question as well. What are the recent developments with regards to students who wish to pursue an MBA in the US but with a clear intention to return back to their home country?

Will visa applications still be an issue? Will it be easier to get a visa if its an M7, but harder if its a non-M7?

If anyone can clarify on this, much appreciated.

stonecold · Answer

Recent development => Amid ‘Trump Effect’ Fear, 40% of Colleges See Dip in Foreign Applicants Source -> New York Times => https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/16/us/i ... .html?_r=0

MAH · Answer

Thanks. I guess 4 years is a long time in politics, we'll have to wait and see. A number of things could happen between now and then. I'd be planning to apply in 2019 to matriculate in 2020, which would be election year, not sure how it would work out.

Pretty gutting as can't really delay the application due to my age.

stonecold · Answer

I am not sure waiting would be a right choice.
No-one can be sure as to what would happen to the politics in the US.
If you are sceptical about the US (like most) and are sure that you need an MBA => There are plenty of great options outside the US.
Roman,Schulich,LBS,IE,INSEAD,AGSM etc.

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