brainiac
How can you assume strong essays and recommendations? according to that tool, these are big parts of the score, but you can't know their strength for sure, you can only assume (and might be wrong). So what does it tell you about your chances? not much in my opinion.
I completely agree with you that the weightings are a bit whacky. To put things in perspective, 30 additional points on the GMAT ~3pts carries more weight than receiving MVP for winning the Superbowl ~2pts or winning a Nobel Prize ~ 1.2. Of course winning a Superbowl MVP AND a Nobel prize are together worth less than strong essays + strong recos by a long shot~6pts , but keep in mind this is a tool designed to sell a consulting service that focuses on essay + reco coaching (ie assign an objective value to a subjective measure).
The point I'm trying to make is that the chances indicator is more ball-park than anything (no different than a "What are my chances?" admission consultant thread) based on your GPA/GMAT/WE. Truth is these are all data points - both subjective and objective - but at the end of the day all that matters is what the Adcoms decision - no other chance indicator really matters.