Bunuel
Climatologists claim: The recent pattern of prolonged droughts followed by intense rainfalls is a clear indicator of climate change. This pattern results from increased global temperatures, which enhance the rate of water evaporation and lead to more stored moisture in the atmosphere. When the moisture is released, it results in heavy rains following drought periods. The discovery that similar weather patterns occurred during the Pliocene Epoch, when the earth experienced higher global temperatures, supports the claim that our current weather patterns are due to climate change.
The argument in the passage relies on which of the following assumptions?
(A) The conditions that caused similar weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch must be the same as those causing current weather patterns.
(B) Other factors besides global temperatures, such as ocean currents or volcanic activity, did not significantly influence weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch.
(C) Without evidence of increased global temperatures, the claim that current weather patterns are due to climate change would not be credible.
(D) If global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of these weather patterns will certainly increase.
(E) The mechanisms that caused climate change in the past are fundamentally different from those causing current climate change.
The climatologists claim that similar global temperatures as today during the Pliocene Epoch coincided with similar weather patterns as of today, thus like Pliocene, the increased global temperatures today are connected to the weather patterns. This comes after the climatologists have stated that the rising global temperatures
cause
the observed patterns in weather.
(A) The conditions that caused similar weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch must be the same as those causing current weather patterns.
Explanation: This correctly represents the flaw in the reasoning of the climatologists, whether be correlation or causation between rising global temperatures and consequent weather patterns, depends on the assumption that the underlying conditions during both epochs have essentially been the same. This is
correct.
(B) Other factors besides global temperatures, such as ocean currents or volcanic activity, did not significantly influence weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch.
Explanation: This is not unlike A, but A definitely captures this better, this fails to capture that there's a similarity that is being drawn in the Pliocene and the Anthropocene. This is
incorrect.
(C) Without evidence of increased global temperatures, the claim that current weather patterns are due to climate change would not be credible.
Explanation: While this is an assumption that requires evidence (or not, because the process has been explained by the climatologists, and there indeed is evidence that temperatures are rising) in the second sentence of the argument, this is not an assumption behind the conclusion that is ultimately drawn regarding the Pliocene. This is
incorrect.
(D) If global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of these weather patterns will certainly increase.
Explanation: This is out of scope, not an assumption in the argument, thus
incorrect.
(E) The mechanisms that caused climate change in the past are fundamentally different from those causing current climate change.
Explanation: This is not an assumption, only a weakener in the argument, for now it is out of scope. This is
incorrect.