Bunuel
Climatologists claim: The recent pattern of prolonged droughts followed by intense rainfalls is a clear indicator of climate change. This pattern results from increased global temperatures, which enhance the rate of water evaporation and lead to more stored moisture in the atmosphere. When the moisture is released, it results in heavy rains following drought periods. The discovery that similar weather patterns occurred during the Pliocene Epoch, when the earth experienced higher global temperatures, supports the claim that our current weather patterns are due to climate change.
The argument in the passage relies on which of the following assumptions?
(A) The conditions that caused similar weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch must be the same as those causing current weather patterns.
(B) Other factors besides global temperatures, such as ocean currents or volcanic activity, did not significantly influence weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch.
(C) Without evidence of increased global temperatures, the claim that current weather patterns are due to climate change would not be credible.
(D) If global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of these weather patterns will certainly increase.
(E) The mechanisms that caused climate change in the past are fundamentally different from those causing current climate change.
(A) The conditions that caused similar weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch must be the same as those causing current weather patterns.This option suggests that the argument assumes the same factors (primarily increased global temperatures) that led to the weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch are also responsible for the current patterns. This aligns with the argument's reliance on historical patterns to explain current phenomena. This is a strong candidate because it directly connects the historical evidence to the current situation, supporting the argument.
(B) Other factors besides global temperatures, such as ocean currents or volcanic activity, did not significantly influence weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch.This option implies that the argument assumes global temperatures were the primary cause of the weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch, with other factors playing a minimal role. While this could be an implicit assumption, the argument focuses more on the similarity of patterns rather than excluding other factors. This is less central to the argument's core logic.
(C) Without evidence of increased global temperatures, the claim that current weather patterns are due to climate change would not be credible.This option suggests that the argument relies on increased global temperatures to validate the claim about climate change. However, this is more about the necessity of evidence for credibility rather than an assumption about the similarity of past and present conditions. The argument's strength comes from comparing historical patterns to current ones, so this is not the best choice.
(D) If global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of these weather patterns will certainly increase.This option projects future trends based on current patterns and temperature rise. While this might be a logical extension of the argument, it is not a foundational assumption. The argument compares past and present patterns rather than making predictions about future trends.
(E) The mechanisms that caused climate change in the past are fundamentally different from those causing current climate change.This option suggests a difference in the causes of past and present climate change. If true, it would weaken the argument, as it relies on the similarity between past and present mechanisms. Thus, this cannot be an assumption the argument relies on. Instead, the argument assumes the opposite: that the mechanisms are similar.
Conclusion:(A) is the correct answer. The argument relies on the assumption that the same conditions (primarily increased global temperatures) that caused the weather patterns during the Pliocene Epoch are also responsible for the current weather patterns. This is central to linking the historical evidence to the current claim about climate change.