NOTE: many times we make a vital mistake as to not pay heed to the later part of the passage !!! we think that if something comes later in the pasage than the detail we are asked about, it is not impotant !! also please try to inderstand what the author is saying...d=finding word to word justifiction may not be appropriate at times
I will try to explain my views on this .. I'm open to scrutiny !
Quote:
Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in modern physics. Yet we still lack satisfactory, consistent definition of probability; or what amount to much the same, we still lack a satisfactory axiomatic system for the calculus of probability. The relations between probability and experience are also still in need of clarification. In investigating this problem we shall discover what will at first seem an almost insuperable objection to my methodological views. For although probability statements play such a vitally important role in empirical science, they turn out to be in principle impervious to strict falsification. Yet this very stumbling block will become a touchstone upon which to test my theory in order to find out what it is worth.
Autor starts by introducing the topic in the first 2 lines : there i still lack of understanding as to how the theory of probability plays a vital role in MP...he then tells us that there isnt a satisfactory system for pribaility calculation... Now he says the relations betweeen pobability and experience are in need of clarification, now when we comprehend this statement we have to use a littl bit of our reasoining (as author cannot be too explicit) : how do we calculate probability of an event in REAL LIFE?? if for example you have been in a situation before and then there is a likelihood of a similar situation to occur you can in some way gauge the probability of its result right??? if you havent experienced ANYTHING before (becasue irrespective of the situation we can extrapolate and connect) then calculating pobability may be difficult !!! similarly if we calculate probabiluty and we have no EXPERIENCE behind it to conclude the correctness of probability , how can we decide that the probability e just calculated is RIGHT OR WRONG?? Please note we are talking about REAL LIFE SITUATION not mathematics !!!
Quote:
"For although probability statements play such a vitally important role in empirical science, they turn out to be in principle impervious to strict falsification."
Here the author says that BECASUE ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY PLAYS A VITAL ROLE IN EMPIRICAL SCIENE( MATHEMATICAL FIELD) , THE PROBAIILITIES TURN OUT TO BE IN PRINCIPLE IMPERVIOUS TO STRICT FALSIFICATION ...that is when viewed without actual experiene in principle the probaility is difficult to falsify or disapprove...
The phrase "in principle" is very important...there are two things when we try to apply a phenomenon in real life... IN PRINCIPLE the phenonemnen can hold true as gold but when applied IN REAL LIFE it migh get disapproved !!
1. The statment, "The relations between probability and experience are still in need of clarification", implies that:
A. probability of an event can always be checked with experience.
- "always" no strong support to the word "always"
B. probability of an event can only be gauged historically.
- "only " wrong..we can gauge a probability empirically in principle without history
C. probability is mathematical while experience is real.
- probabiliy can be applied in REAL LIFE..it can be calculated with the experience !!! and im not saying this with MY KNOWEGDE ...the entire para talks about probaility applicability IN REAL LIFE
D. probability statements can become difficult to disprove without experience.
- Please read the explanation ... "in principle the probability is IMPERVIOUS(UNAFFECTED BY) to falsification
E. probability is futuristic.
- This is like defining probability...firstly the author says we have no explicit definition.. but this is a general statement cannot be deduced ...
NinetyFour Gmatprep550 menonrit abhishek31 diljeetsinghPlease see if this helps !!