Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in mode

Question

Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in modern physics. Yet we still lack satisfactory, consistent definition of probability; or what amount to much the same, we still lack a satisfactory axiomatic system for the calculus of probability. The relations between probability and experience are also still in need of clarification. In investigating this problem we shall discover what will at first seem an almost insuperable objection to my methodological views. For although probability statements play such a vitally important role in empirical science, they turn out to be in principle impervious to strict falsification. Yet this very stumbling block will become a touchstone upon which to test my theory in order to find out what it is worth. Thus we are confronted with two tasks. The first is to provide new foundations for the calculus of probability. This I shall try to do by developing the theory of probability as a frequency theory along the lines followed by Richard von Mises but without the use of what he calls the 'axiom of convergence' (or 'limit axiom'), and with a somewhat weakened 'axiom of randomness'. The second task is to elucidate the relation between probability and experience. This means solving what I call the problem of decidability of probability statmenents. My hope is that these investigations will help to relieve the present unsatisfactory situation in which physicists make much use of probabilities without being able to say, consistently, what they mean by 'probability'   1 
 1. The statment, "The relations between probability and experience are still in need of clarification", implies that:

A. probability of an event can always be checked with experience.
B. probability of an event can only be gauged historically.
C. probability is mathematical while experience is real.
D. probability statements can become difficult to disprove without experience.
E. probability is futuristic.

2 
 2. Author has talked about the two tasks in the above package. Choose the best option from the following statements relevant to the tasks.

A. The first task is sufficient to become the touchstone for the author to test his theory.
B. The second task is sufficient for the author to test his theory.
C. Either of the tasks is sufficient for the author to test his theory.
D. None of the tasks is sufficient for the author to test his theory.
E. Both the tasks would be important for the author to test his theory.

3 
 3. Which of the following statements can be inferred from the passage?

A. Physics is the only subject that borrows from the theory of probability.
B. Physics is the only subject where the theory of probability is inaccurately applied.
C. The theory of probability may be inaccurately applied in other subjects.
D. Physics is highly mathematical
E. Experience relates to physical objects only.

AdityaHongunti · Accepted Answer

NOTE: many times we make a vital mistake as to not pay heed to the later part of the passage !!! we think that if something comes later in the pasage than the detail we are asked about, it is not impotant !! also please try to inderstand what the author is saying...d=finding word to word justifiction may not be appropriate at times

I will try to explain my views on this .. I'm open to scrutiny !

Autor starts by introducing the topic in the first 2 lines : there i still lack of understanding as to how the theory of probability plays a vital role in MP...he then tells us that there isnt a satisfactory system for pribaility calculation... Now he says the relations betweeen pobability and experience are in need of clarification, now when we comprehend this statement we have to use a littl bit of our reasoining (as author cannot be too explicit) : how do we calculate probability of an event in REAL LIFE?? if for example you have been in a situation before and then there is a likelihood of a similar situation to occur you can in some way gauge the probability of its result right??? if you havent experienced ANYTHING before (becasue irrespective of the situation we can extrapolate and connect) then calculating pobability may be difficult !!! similarly if we calculate probabiluty and we have no EXPERIENCE behind it to conclude the correctness of probability , how can we decide that the probability e just calculated is RIGHT OR WRONG?? Please note we are talking about REAL LIFE SITUATION not mathematics !!!

Here the author says that BECASUE ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY PLAYS A VITAL ROLE IN EMPIRICAL SCIENE( MATHEMATICAL FIELD) , THE PROBAIILITIES TURN OUT TO BE IN PRINCIPLE IMPERVIOUS TO STRICT FALSIFICATION ...that is when viewed without actual experiene in principle the probaility is difficult to falsify or disapprove...
The phrase "in principle" is very important...there are two things when we try to apply a phenomenon in real life... IN PRINCIPLE the phenonemnen can hold true as gold but when applied IN REAL LIFE it migh get disapproved !!

1. The statment, "The relations between probability and experience are still in need of clarification", implies that:

A. probability of an event can always be checked with experience.
- "always" no strong support to the word "always"

B. probability of an event can only be gauged historically.
- "only " wrong..we can gauge a probability empirically in principle without history

C. probability is mathematical while experience is real.
- probabiliy can be applied in REAL LIFE..it can be calculated with the experience !!! and im not saying this with MY KNOWEGDE ...the entire para talks about probaility applicability IN REAL LIFE

D. probability statements can become difficult to disprove without experience.
- Please read the explanation ... "in principle the probability is IMPERVIOUS(UNAFFECTED BY) to falsification

E. probability is futuristic.
- This is like defining probability...firstly the author says we have no explicit definition.. but this is a general statement cannot be deduced ...

NinetyFour   Gmatprep550   menonrit   abhishek31   diljeetsingh 
Please see if this helps !!

PoetVogon · Answer

I am not able to understand the answer to the inference question (i.e. question 3). Which line or section in the paragraph gives the best clue?

SKap13 · Answer

PoetVogon  I don't think it's mentioned directly in the text, but it's always a good idea to choose an answer that isn't too extreme. In this case Answer C says "may be inaccurately applied", which is true: it could be inaccurately applied to other fields or it could not. Either way, it "may be" inaccurately applied. The other answer choices are too extreme or specific. Hope this helps.

Chethan92 · Answer

workout  sir, can you format the question and passage?

Nikhil · Answer

Thank you for reporting  Afc0892  I've formatted the question to follow RC forum rules.

NinetyFour · Answer

In the first two sentences of the passage "Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in modern physics. Yet we still lack satisfactory, consistent definition of probability"

Because there is no consistent definition, scientists are probably using the theory differently across several disciplines. Hence the answer C.

NinetyFour · Answer

Could someone explain 1?

Gmatprep550 · Answer

I am also not sure how OA is D for Q1, someone please assist us here.

workout ,  u1983 ,  GMATNinja ,  GMATNinjaTwo ,  Gnpth ,  broall

menonrit · Answer

Hi K Chen,

Could you please explain how the answer for question 1 is D.

abhishek31 · Answer

Hi, can anyone help me with the thought process in attempting question 1

diljeetsingh · Answer

please explain ques 1:The statment, "The relations between probability and experience are still in need of clarification", implies that:?

Gmatprep550 · Answer

Hi Moderators ( GMATNinjaTwo ,  workout ,  u1983 ,  GMATNinja ,  SajjadAhmad , @Gnpth) ,

Could any one of you please assist us for q1 as there are many people requesting that.

VerbalBot · Answer

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Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in mode

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Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in mode

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