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Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in mode

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Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in mode  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 27 Dec 2018, 01:09
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Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in modern physics. Yet we still lack satisfactory, consistent definition of probability; or what amount to much the same, we still lack a satisfactory axiomatic system for the calculus of probability. The relations between probability and experience are also still in need of clarification. In investigating this problem we shall discover what will at first seem an almost insuperable objection to my methodological views. For although probability statements play such a vitally important role in empirical science, they turn out to be in principle impervious to strict falsification. Yet this very stumbling block will become a touchstone upon which to test my theory in order to find out what it is worth. Thus we are confronted with two tasks. The first is to provide new foundations for the calculus of probability. This I shall try to do by developing the theory of probability as a frequency theory along the lines followed by Richard von Mises but without the use of what he calls the 'axiom of convergence' (or 'limit axiom'), and with a somewhat weakened 'axiom of randomness'. The second task is to elucidate the relation between probability and experience. This means solving what I call the problem of decidability of probability statmenents. My hope is that these investigations will help to relieve the present unsatisfactory situation in which physicists make much use of probabilities without being able to say, consistently, what they mean by 'probability'

1. The statment, "The relations between probability and experience are still in need of clarification", implies that:

A. probability of an event can always be checked with experience.
B. probability of an event can only be gauged historically.
C. probability is mathematical while experience is real.
D. probability statements can become difficult to disprove without experience.
E. probability is futuristic.


2. Author has talked about the two tasks in the above package. Choose the best option from the following statements relevant to the tasks.

A. The first task is sufficient to become the touchstone for the author to test his theory.
B. The second task is sufficient for the author to test his theory.
C. Either of the tasks is sufficient for the author to test his theory.
D. None of the tasks is sufficient for the author to test his theory.
E. Both the tasks would be important for the author to test his theory.


3. Which of the following statements can be inferred from the passage?

A. Physics is the only subject that borrows from the theory of probability.
B. Physics is the only subject where the theory of probability is inaccurately applied.
C. The theory of probability may be inaccurately applied in other subjects.
D. Physics is highly mathematical
E. Experience relates to physical objects only.


Originally posted by prince00113 on 12 Mar 2018, 09:38.
Last edited by workout on 27 Dec 2018, 01:09, edited 1 time in total.
Formatted, added timers
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New post 27 Mar 2018, 05:58
I am not able to understand the answer to the inference question (i.e. question 3). Which line or section in the paragraph gives the best clue?
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New post 05 Aug 2018, 12:25
PoetVogon I don't think it's mentioned directly in the text, but it's always a good idea to choose an answer that isn't too extreme. In this case Answer C says "may be inaccurately applied", which is true: it could be inaccurately applied to other fields or it could not. Either way, it "may be" inaccurately applied. The other answer choices are too extreme or specific. Hope this helps.
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New post 26 Dec 2018, 16:48
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workout sir, can you format the question and passage?
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New post 27 Dec 2018, 01:10
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Afc0892 wrote:
workout sir, can you format the question and passage?


Thank you for reporting Afc0892 I've formatted the question to follow RC forum rules.
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New post 27 Dec 2018, 17:52
PoetVogon wrote:
I am not able to understand the answer to the inference question (i.e. question 3). Which line or section in the paragraph gives the best clue?


In the first two sentences of the passage "Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in modern physics. Yet we still lack satisfactory, consistent definition of probability"

Because there is no consistent definition, scientists are probably using the theory differently across several disciplines. Hence the answer C.
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New post 27 Dec 2018, 17:54
Could someone explain 1?
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New post 23 Jan 2019, 04:22
kchen1994 wrote:
Could someone explain 1?


I am also not sure how OA is D for Q1, someone please assist us here.

workout, u1983, GMATNinja, GMATNinjaTwo, Gnpth, broall
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New post 25 Feb 2019, 03:05
Hi K Chen,

Could you please explain how the answer for question 1 is D.


kchen1994 wrote:
PoetVogon wrote:
I am not able to understand the answer to the inference question (i.e. question 3). Which line or section in the paragraph gives the best clue?


In the first two sentences of the passage "Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in modern physics. Yet we still lack satisfactory, consistent definition of probability"

Because there is no consistent definition, scientists are probably using the theory differently across several disciplines. Hence the answer C.
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New post 25 Feb 2019, 10:20
Hi, can anyone help me with the thought process in attempting question 1
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New post 09 Mar 2019, 00:06
please explain ques 1:The statment, "The relations between probability and experience are still in need of clarification", implies that:?
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New post 09 Mar 2019, 00:14
Hi Moderators (GMATNinjaTwo, workout, u1983, GMATNinja, SajjadAhmad, @Gnpth) ,

Could any one of you please assist us for q1 as there are many people requesting that.
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New post 11 Mar 2019, 21:42
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NOTE: many times we make a vital mistake as to not pay heed to the later part of the passage !!! we think that if something comes later in the pasage than the detail we are asked about, it is not impotant !! also please try to inderstand what the author is saying...d=finding word to word justifiction may not be appropriate at times

I will try to explain my views on this .. I'm open to scrutiny !

Quote:
Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in modern physics. Yet we still lack satisfactory, consistent definition of probability; or what amount to much the same, we still lack a satisfactory axiomatic system for the calculus of probability. The relations between probability and experience are also still in need of clarification. In investigating this problem we shall discover what will at first seem an almost insuperable objection to my methodological views. For although probability statements play such a vitally important role in empirical science, they turn out to be in principle impervious to strict falsification. Yet this very stumbling block will become a touchstone upon which to test my theory in order to find out what it is worth.


Autor starts by introducing the topic in the first 2 lines : there i still lack of understanding as to how the theory of probability plays a vital role in MP...he then tells us that there isnt a satisfactory system for pribaility calculation... Now he says the relations betweeen pobability and experience are in need of clarification, now when we comprehend this statement we have to use a littl bit of our reasoining (as author cannot be too explicit) : how do we calculate probability of an event in REAL LIFE?? if for example you have been in a situation before and then there is a likelihood of a similar situation to occur you can in some way gauge the probability of its result right??? if you havent experienced ANYTHING before (becasue irrespective of the situation we can extrapolate and connect) then calculating pobability may be difficult !!! similarly if we calculate probabiluty and we have no EXPERIENCE behind it to conclude the correctness of probability , how can we decide that the probability e just calculated is RIGHT OR WRONG?? Please note we are talking about REAL LIFE SITUATION not mathematics !!!

Quote:
"For although probability statements play such a vitally important role in empirical science, they turn out to be in principle impervious to strict falsification."


Here the author says that BECASUE ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY PLAYS A VITAL ROLE IN EMPIRICAL SCIENE( MATHEMATICAL FIELD) , THE PROBAIILITIES TURN OUT TO BE IN PRINCIPLE IMPERVIOUS TO STRICT FALSIFICATION ...that is when viewed without actual experiene in principle the probaility is difficult to falsify or disapprove...
The phrase "in principle" is very important...there are two things when we try to apply a phenomenon in real life... IN PRINCIPLE the phenonemnen can hold true as gold but when applied IN REAL LIFE it migh get disapproved !!


1. The statment, "The relations between probability and experience are still in need of clarification", implies that:

A. probability of an event can always be checked with experience.
- "always" no strong support to the word "always"

B. probability of an event can only be gauged historically.
- "only " wrong..we can gauge a probability empirically in principle without history

C. probability is mathematical while experience is real.
- probabiliy can be applied in REAL LIFE..it can be calculated with the experience !!! and im not saying this with MY KNOWEGDE ...the entire para talks about probaility applicability IN REAL LIFE

D. probability statements can become difficult to disprove without experience.
- Please read the explanation ... "in principle the probability is IMPERVIOUS(UNAFFECTED BY) to falsification

E. probability is futuristic.
- This is like defining probability...firstly the author says we have no explicit definition.. but this is a general statement cannot be deduced ...

NinetyFour Gmatprep550 menonrit abhishek31 diljeetsingh
Please see if this helps !!
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Re: Ideas involving the theory of probability play a decisive part in mode   [#permalink] 11 Mar 2019, 21:42
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