MGOBLUE2
Wow. Shows how bad things are getting. Pelihu, has your confidence been lowered based on what others have told you during the internship about fewer full-time offers being extended? I sensed more optimism earlier in the year.
Also, is there anxiety among the FT Associates? I have to imagine some fear being laid-off.
pelihu
Given my preferences (west coast, bulge bracket, preferably financial sponsors and/or private equity) the number of jobs can probably be counted on two hands, so I'm going to do my best to hold onto this one if I can.
Haven't heard anything specific about fewer full-time offers, just my interpretation of what's going on right now. Virtually all of the banks have announced layoffs recently. This are much different now than earlier in the year. In the fall, we had some bad news but most of the banks said they would keep hiring at the same levels. In January, we learned that many firms would not be hiring at the same levels as in the past (Citi and Merrill cut summer associate hiring sharply, some others had fewer cuts and some held the line). In March we had Bear Stearns. Lately Lehman has been in the news every day and UBS can't stop tripping over itself. Even Goldman and JPMorgan (seemed to have weather problems the best) have laid of substantial numbers - including senior bankers. In fact, there's been a joke going around about Goldman's accelerated analyst program, where they ask them to leave after one year (two is the typical analyst program).
So, while nobody has directly said anything about it, I think it's almost certain that full-time offers will be tighter this year. The good news is that, if the past is any indication, people who survive and get offers will be perfectly positioned to reap the benefits of the next boom (it will always be a cycle). Banks always overdo it when the cut, and bid up salaries when things pick up. Banks were telling us in the fall that they learned the lesson last time, and that they wouldn't cut hiring this time around - not true - and if the past is any indication, they will pay out the nose for talent when the economy turns around. The good thing is, they can afford it.
As far as full-time associates (and VPs for that matter), people don't walk around talking about how they are afraid of losing their jobs. In fact, I think the worst thing you could do to most of them isn't to fire them, but to severly cut their bonus at the end of the year. People would be disappointed if they got fired, but they might go postal if they work all year and get paid a consultant-level bonus. I seem to recall reading an article about a BofA VP or something from this past year. They cut his bonus from about $1.5mm the prior year to $200k (just off the top of my head, don't remember exactly), and he was suing because he said they based his salary on future business prospects (the coming year) rather than what he produced last year. Don't know how that turned out, but a sharp cut in bonus would probably piss off a lot more bankers than layoffs.