Hopland, one of the world’s major producers of rose plants, exported a

Question

Hopland, one of the world’s major producers of rose plants, exported about five tons of roses last year. In the year prior to last year, Hopland exported just 2.75 tons of roses. Therefore, it can be concluded that the demand for roses is on an upward trend and should be expected to keep increasing in the future.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the conclusion drawn above?

(A) The demand in the international market for tulips produced in Hopland has not increased in the last two years.

(B) No new export markets have opened up in the last few years for the export of Hopland roses.

(C) It is generally very difficult to predict the actual demand of roses in the international market in a given year.

(D) For the first time in nearly a decade, Roseland, the largest exporter of roses in the international market, suffered an unexpected infestation on its rose plantations last year.

(E) In a recently published paper on the cosmetic benefits of flowers, scientists have claimed that jasmine flowers have significantly more cosmetic benefits than roses.

devavrat · Accepted Answer

How can D be the answer?
In a way it is actually strengthening the conclusion that even though there was an unexpected infestation last year, the export of the roses grew from the previous year
So this year and coming years without infestation the exports will continue to increase

How does this option weaken the conclusion??
Someone pls explain

vaibhav1221 · Answer

The question seems fine to me.

The prompt says that ONE OF THE largest producers increased their export last year, thus the world demand is going to increase.
Here the author is concluding by saying the world demand is going to increase basis ONE OF THE largest producers, and not considering all the producers who affect the supply in a major way.

Option D says, that the the LARGEST PRODUCER could not produce as many roses as it could have. This implies that the other producers, in this case HOPLAND, got to supply for the demand that was to be fulfilled by the LARGEST PRODUCER. 
Thus, the author's conclusion that the demand will increase is incorrect.

Hope this helps!

abhichopra007 · Answer

The question asked about weakening the argument.

A- Out of Scope; Tulips or not, are out of question.

B- Strengthens the argument; Since no new markets have opened up, the increase in exports is a direct result of an increase in demand from the constant number of markets available.

C- Real World Trap;

D- Weakens, Correct; Since there was an infestation, the largest exporter could not cater to the demand in the world. Hence, the demand remained constant but the exports from Hopland increased.

E- Out of Scope.

gvij2017 · Answer

I don't understand how D can be the best choice here. We have to weaken the conclusion that is demand is expected to increase in the future. So we have to figure out the option which tells that demand will remain either constant or decrease. 
An infestation of the rose crop last year tells nothing about the demand.

Either D is not an answer or question is of poor quality.

rvarora · Answer

D weakens by adding new information (thats first) that it was not the demand that resulted in a greater amount of export but rather a setback in competitor's performance, something else resulted in greater export<-- in case of A causes B, it says C caused B
That is how it weakens

And having said that, it was not just the infestation, you are generalizing the statement, it is an infestation in a competitor state

chrisbender · Answer

Do you mind explaining what you mean by real world trap. I got the answer and understand why C is wrong, but do you mind providing a little more context on what you mean by this term. I have never come across it before and it may help eliminate wrong choices in the future.
Thanks

peehu24 · Answer

I feel that what the option is trying to convey is that the infestation did not lead to an increase in the overall demand of roses but reduced the exports from Roseland. And since Roseland was unable to export the required number of roses, Hopland got the opportunity to increase its exports to fulfill the demand.
This shows that the demand is not on an increase (upward trend) but rather that such circumstances were created due to an unexpected occurrence and are unlikely to remain the same.

SamMenon · Answer

Answer: (D)
 
Hopland’s higher exports (2.75 → ~5 tons) could be a  one-off spike  caused by a  temporary supply shortfall  from Roseland, the market’s largest exporter. If Roseland suffered an infestation last year, buyers may have shifted to Hopland temporarily,  not  because global demand is trending up. That undercuts the conclusion that demand “should be expected to keep increasing.”

Quickly on the others:

(A)  Tulip demand is irrelevant to the rose demand inference. 
  (B)  No new markets doesn’t explain the jump; existing markets could have absorbed more. 
  (C)  “Hard to predict demand” weakens forecasting confidence but doesn’t explain away last year’s rise. 
  (E)  Jasmine’s benefits might affect  future  preferences but don’t account for the  observed  increase.

DrTushita · Answer

It directly attacks the conclusion which is   "the demand for roses is on an upward trend and should be expected to keep increasing in the future". D is saying the demand didnt increase but another supplier has stopped supplying hence it is able to export surplus amount

DrTushita · Answer

we are not sure about this section: So this year and coming years without infestation the exports will continue to increase. we are attcking the section in the conslusion that says that the demand has increased

JJJP · Answer

I feel like it is because the conclusion is that the demand trend will keep increasing. The D provides another reason that the exporter problem instead of increasing demand leads to the export increase.

HRX273 · Answer

i was literally confused between c and d , i was ready to choose d but it say unexpected all of this stuff and i got bogged down into details .....

Hopland, one of the world’s major producers of rose plants, exported a

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Hopland, one of the world’s major producers of rose plants, exported a

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