Of the countries that were the worlds twenty largest exporters in 195

Question

Of the countries that were the world’s twenty largest exporters in 1953, four had the same share of total world exports in 1984 as in 1953. Theses countries can therefore serve as models for those countries that wish to keep their share of the global export trade stable over the years.

Which of the following, if true, casts the most serious doubt on the suitability of those four countries as models in the sense described?

Which of the following, if true, casts the most serious doubt on the suitability of those four countries as models in the sense described?

(A) Many countries wish to increase their share of world export trade, not just keep it stable.

(B) Many countries are less concerned with exports alone than with the balance between exports and imports.

(C) With respect to the mix of products each exports, the four countries are very different from each other.

(D) Of the four countries, two had a much larger, and two had a much smaller, share of total world exports in 1970 than in 1984.

(E) The exports of the four countries range from 15 percent to 75 percent of the total national output.

tarunk31 · Accepted Answer

Of the countries that were the world’s twenty largest exporters in 1953, four had the same share of total world exports in 1984 as in 1953. Theses countries can therefore serve as models for those countries that wish to keep their share of the global export trade stable over the years.

Which of the following, if true, casts the most serious doubt on the suitability of those four countries as models in the sense described?

Premise: Of the twenty countries, 4 countries have same share of global exports in 1984 as they had in 1953.

Conc: These countries are models for those countries that wish to keep their share of the global export trade stable over the years.

Note that conclusion talk about the stability of exports over the years but premise only mention that 4 countries had same exports in just two years. The assumption here is that in the years between 1953 and 1984, exports of those countries remained stable. Since we are supposed to weaken the argument, we need to find an option that suggests that exports were not stable in the years between 1953 and 1984.

Lets do the POE.

Which of the following, if true, casts the most serious doubt on the suitability of those four countries as models in the sense described?

(A) Many countries wish to increase their share of world export trade, not just keep it stable.

This is out of scope as we are only concerned about whether those 4 countries could keep their exports stable over the years as otherwise those countries cannot serve as model for other countries.

(B) Many countries are less concerned with exports alone than with the balance between exports and imports.

Similar to option A, this is also out of scope.

(C) With respect to the mix of products each exports, the four countries are very different from each other.

We are only concerned about those countries could maintain their share of total world exports over the years. The variation in the mix of products that they exported is not really a concern here. Eliminate.

(D) Of the four countries, two had a much larger, and two had a much smaller, share of total world exports in 1970 than in 1984.

This is correct as it points that in 1970 the share changed so those countries were actually not stable over the years so they cannot serve as model.

(E) The exports of the four countries range from 15 percent to 75 percent of the total national output.

This is incorrect as we are not concerned with the share percentage of those countries. We are only concerned with the stability of that share over the years.

ashkanator · Answer

when you answer a CR question first thing you have to figure is: what is the conclusion and what are the pramises. here the con. is: they will keep exports the same since they kept it stable in the past. so you have to find an answer that would " cast doubt" on this con. so the fact that answer  D) Of the four countries, two had a much larger, and two had a much smaller, share of total world exports in 1970 than in 1984.  shows an instability in the past for these countries... by itself will cast doubt on the con.

by the way casting doubt, does not have to be very strong. in most of the tougher questions the right answer choice will create a very low level of doubt and the wrong answer choices are statements that sounds to show very high degree of doubt, but they do that for the premises or the subsidiary conclusion not the main conclusion of the argument... so watch out for these type of traps in the answer choices...

main thing would be to figure what is the main conclusion of the argument.... then you can easily solve the problem

gmat1220 · Answer

D means that 4 countries in question had no stable trade, hence cannot serve as the model

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crick20002002 · Answer

D it is.

The conclusion overtly states that : 4 countries have had relatively stable trade share.

D attacks by giving evidence that the share being constant in 1953 and 1984 does not mean that the shares were constant within the time frame.

Crick

TirthankarP · Answer

I was confused between A and D. 
But then I again read the conclusion and understood that the conclusion is talking about only those countries that wish to keep their share of the global export trade stable over the years.

A says - Many countries  wish to increase their share of world export trade , not just keep it stable
That's why A is irrelevant.

vikrantgulia · Answer

Answer is D

A: Even though many country wish to increase their share but it can be possible that many those country are below in share than these countries. So A is incorrect
B:Many countries are less concerned with exports alone than with he balance between exports and imports. Out of scope.
C: With respect to the mix of products each exports, the four countries are very different from each other. Out of scope.
D: Of the four countries, two had a much larger, and two had a much smaller, share of total world exports in 1970 than in 1984. It cast doubt on stable export as the export varies in 1970 and 1984.So conclusion got weaken export trade stable over the years. So it is correct.
E:The exports of the four countries range from 15 percent to 75 percent of the total national output. It does not weaken conclusion

+1 for me.cheers.

OptimusPrepJanielle · Answer

As per the premise, the countries can serve as a model if they keep share constant.
Although the share is same in 1953 and 1984, but what if the share varied in between. In such case, we cannot say them as models

Option D says just the same by saying that the shares were different in 1970

Correct Option: D

abhishekdadarwal2009 · Answer

Of the countries that were the worlds twenty largest exporters in 1953, four had the same share of total world exports in 1984 as in 1953. Theses countries can therefore serve as models for those countries that wish to keep their share of the global export trade stable over the years.

Which of the following, if true, casts the most serious doubt on the suitability of those four countries as models in the sense described?

The conclusion of the argument is that these four countries can serve as models for those countries that are trying to keep a stable share of the global trade.

To find the answer that weakens the argument in a best way lets try process of elimination

A. Many countries wish to increase their share of world export trade, not just keep it stable. 
 Good for those countries.. :P , but the argument is not concerned that some countries want to increase the share, the argument focuses on to keeping the share stable.so its not actually weakening the argument as to why the countries are choosen to be models.

B. Many countries are less concerned with exports alone than with he balance between exports and imports. 
yeah sure..., sounds like phrase some whould say to sound intelligent.. :P , but its not in the scope of our argument as the arguemtn is not discussing about the inport vs the export,and focuses on trade share overall.

C. With respect to the mix of products each exports, the four countries are very different from each other. 
well all countries have a unique set of trade goods and hardly any is alike. but the what constitutes the traded products is also out of scope.it doesnt weaken the argument in any way.

D. Of the four countries, two had a much larger, and two had a much smaller, share of total world exports in 1970 than in 1984. 
correct weakener as it shows that the trade share for the four counties respectively were not stable, so if thye shares were not stable how can they be modles to other counties. therefore correct weakener.

E. The exports of the four countries range from 15 percent to 75 percent of the total national output.  
this also does not weakne the argument as the TNO cannot weaken the argument

ahabib · Answer

As long as you can summarize the argument and understand the question this is easy, so we gotta take time to make sure that's understood.

Summary:  Exports in 53' = 84', therefore stable throughout years

Prethink:  What if there was a lot of fluctuation in the middle?

(A) Many countries wish to increase their share of world export trade, not just keep it stable.

Irrelevant , the passage specifically mentions that these countries serve as models for STABLE trade, which is what we want. We don't care about improving trade.

(B) Many countries are less concerned with exports alone than with the balance between exports and imports.

Irrelevant . What they are concerned (or not) with is outside the scope.

(C) With respect to the mix of products each exports, the four countries are very different from each other.

Irrelevant . This doesn't matter, we're not getting into the details, we just want big picture stuff that helps trade stay STABLE.

(D) Of the four countries, two had a much larger, and two had a much smaller, share of total world exports in 1970 than in 1984.

Sounds like fluctuations (Aligns with Prethinking).  Good

(E) The exports of the four countries range from 15 percent to 75 percent of the total national output.

Irrelevant.  Totally outside the scope of the passage and question.

dcummins · Answer

1984 
A – 20%
B– 20%
C– 20%
D– 20%
1953
A – 20%
B– 20%
C– 20%
D– 20%

Conclusion: these countries can serve as models for those countries that wish to keep their share of the global export trade stable over the years

D highlights that actually, no, the 4 countries in question weren't "stable over the years" as they deviated in 1970, thus casting doubt on the argument that these 4 countries can serve as a model for stable trade.

mSKR · Answer

Any 2nd opinion on option B?

What if some countries continue to export way much higher than import such that the strategy is not worth follow . Then in this case , even export remains stable , it is not good for economy as the country could be in loss with time.
or we should ignore B because we don't care how they made this export stable. it is worth to follow the strategy

Please give your opinion 
Usually I don't ignore such options when the manner that how conclusion is achieved could be be important .

btw, i rejected option D - was my 2nd preference.
-> it went from ups and downs but finally it maintained its percentage share. So it is worth noting how these 4 countries managed in 30 years. 
Moreover it is not important how much percentage they maintained these years. The key point is they didn't go bankrupt 
So I assume this option is worth strengthening the conclusion instead of weakening.

please share your opinion on my thinking for option B and D.
 GMATGuruNY   MartyTargetTestPrep   AnthonyRitz   BrightOutlookJenn   GMATNinja

AnthonyRitz · Answer

There is no way that B could work here, but I think the problem is that you're not sufficiently focused on the stated conclusion. You're speculating, and that's just not what the GMAT is about.

Specifically, the question asks us to consider

What "sense" is that? The sense in which

The key word here is  export . Should countries in the real world care about their imports? ... Maybe? Who knows? I'm not an economist, and I'm not their mom.

But also: Who cares? We don't live in the real world. We live in GMAT-land. The argument tells us that exports are all that matters! And in GMAT-land we only care about whatever the argument tells us to care about.

As a result, we simply don't care about any countries that, as B describes, are

So that's why B is wrong.

Your understanding of D was also incorrect. You said that

Yes it is! The conclusion is literally about these countries' exports'  stability .

You also said that

No it isn't! The key point is that these countries' exports  were not stable ! They went up and back down, or down and back up, or generally anywhere but "flat and consistent."

Again you seem to care about some phantom point about what's good for the countries or their economies or something irrelevant like that. We're not here to show off our macroeconomics skillz! We're here to address the stated arguments, those arguments' conclusions, and the gaps in those arguments' reasoning leading up to those conclusions. That's it.

The conclusion was that these countries are good models of stability in exports. But D says that they weren't -- their exports went up and down. That's a weakener, and the one and only right answer. Period.

kittle · Answer

GMATNinja  - Can you please help me figure out why option E is wrong? If there is a range in which the exports of four countries vary, doesn't that doubt the stability ? Please help

GMATNinja · Answer

The passage talks about countries that "had the same share of total world exports in 1984 as in 1953." For example, maybe Morocco accounted for 3% of all of the exports in the world in 1953, and also 3% of all exports in the world in 1984. Additionally, maybe Papua New Guinea accounted for 1% of all of the exports in the world in 1953, and also 1% of all exports in the world in 1984.

The author argues that other countries that want to have similar stability can look to these countries as models.

Take another look at the exact wording of (E):

(E) compares exports to  national  output. Or, in other words, how much a particular country produces in total, vs. how much that country exports.

Going back to the Morocco example: maybe its exports, which amount to 3% of total  world  exports, account for 15% of Morocco's  national  output. The other 85% of stuff produced in Morocco stays in Morocco.

In Papua New Guinea, on the other hand, maybe that 1% of world exports accounts for 75% of all of the stuff produced in Papua New Guinea, and only 25% of that national output stays within the country.

This kind of variation has no impact on the author's argument. As long as the "model" countries have stability in their share of total  world  exports, then the author is happy.

That's why we can eliminate (E).

I hope that helps!

VerbalBot · Answer

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Of the countries that were the worlds twenty largest exporters in 195

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Of the countries that were the worlds twenty largest exporters in 195

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