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Re: An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's [#permalink]
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nightblade354 wrote:
An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council. The editorial bases its claim on a recent survey that found that 59 percent of Grandburg's registered voters think that the party will definitely be out of power after next year's city council elections.

Which one of the following is a principle that, if established, would provide the strongest justification for the editorial's conclusion?

(A) The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will continue to feel about that party, barring unforeseeable political developments

(B) The results of surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims about the likely future prospects of that political party

(C) An increase in ill-feeling toward a political party that is in power can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding increase in support for rival political parties

(D) The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized.

(E) It can reasonably be assumed that registered voters who respond to a survey regarding the outcome of a future election will exercise their right to vote in that election


I narrowed it down to A, D & E. The trick is to understand the crux - what people think = what people feel.

(A) The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will continue to feel about that party, barring unforeseeable political developments
Slightly irrelevant because how they feel about a party in the future doesn't affect the argument.

(D) The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized.
This bridges that gap. It says the proportion of people who expect (or think which is reflected by the vote) = proportion of people who are actually in favour of it.

(E) It can reasonably be assumed that registered voters who respond to a survey regarding the outcome of a future election will exercise their right to vote in that election
Another trap answer. The focus is not on whether the political party will come to power, rather on whether people will actually welcome it.
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An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's [#permalink]
While most statements sound fairly reasonable at first glance, the devil is in the detail.

We are looking for a justification that voters would judge a loss of the ruling party as favorable.
However, apart from "D" & "C" the statements address the likelihood of the respective outcome and do not give any indication as to the emotions of the voter base towards the given scenario.

"C" goes overboard in the conclusions presented, hence we are left with D.

Hope this helps.

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Re: An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's [#permalink]
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An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council. The editorial bases its claim on a recent survey that found that 59 percent of Grandburg's registered voters think that the party will definitely be out of power after next year's city council elections.

Which one of the following is a principle that, if established, would provide the strongest justification for the editorial's conclusion?



Strengthen question

Pre-thinking

The author conclusion is that voters in general would like to see the current party defeated.

The reasoning used to draw such conclusion is that registered voters for the majority would not vote for the current party during the next elections.

Now, the evidence talks about registered voters. But what if there are other voters that could change the outcome? An assumption made by the argument is that such voters are representative and significant in the poll of ALL voters.

Coming to the answer choices. They are all quite tricky because they give us the impression of strengthening the argument but actually 4 of them are strengthening the wrong claim.
Let's see.

(A) The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will continue to feel about that party, barring unforeseeable political developments
we care only for the present situation, not the for the future

(B) The results of surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims about the likely future prospects of that political party
prospects of political parties are irrelevant

(C) An increase in ill-feeling toward a political party that is in power can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding increase in support for rival political parties
rival parties are outside of the picture

(D) The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized
Here we are. We know now that the voters considered by the argument are representative.

(E) It can reasonably be assumed that registered voters who respond to a survey regarding the outcome of a future election will exercise their right to vote in that election
irrelevant again

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Re: An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's [#permalink]
Hi,
I don't understand: If people feel that the party won't win, why would they welcome it? Does that mean that, the people really want to see that party win, and therefore express sentiments?
Is my logic correct? This is a really confusing question, it took me time to understand the options too :D
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Re: An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's [#permalink]
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Re: An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's [#permalink]
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