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nightblade354
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Expert reply
06 May 2019, 06:16
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D
Be sure to select an answer first to save it in the Error Log before revealing the correct answer (OA)!
Difficulty:
95%
(hard)
Question Stats:
47% (02:36) correct
53%
(02:32)
wrong
based on 776
sessions
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An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council. The editorial bases its claim on a recent survey that found that 59 percent of Grandburg's registered voters think that the party will definitely be out of power after next year's city council elections.
Which one of the following is a principle that, if established, would provide the strongest justification for the editorial's conclusion?
(A) The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will continue to feel about that party, barring unforeseeable political developments
(B) The results of surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims about the likely future prospects of that political party
(C) An increase in ill-feeling toward a political party that is in power can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding increase in support for rival political parties
(D) The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized
(E) It can reasonably be assumed that registered voters who respond to a survey regarding the outcome of a future election will exercise their right to vote in that election
Which one of the following is a principle that, if established, would provide the strongest justification for the editorial's conclusion?
(A) The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will continue to feel about that party, barring unforeseeable political developments
(B) The results of surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims about the likely future prospects of that political party
(C) An increase in ill-feeling toward a political party that is in power can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding increase in support for rival political parties
(D) The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized
(E) It can reasonably be assumed that registered voters who respond to a survey regarding the outcome of a future election will exercise their right to vote in that election
udaypratapsingh99
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Schools: Fuqua '24 Harvard '24 LBS '24 NTU NUS Said '23 Ross '24 Sloan '24 Stanford '24 Tepper '24 Tuck '24 Wharton '24 Yale '24
GMAT 1: 660 Q47 V34
Posts: 399
07 May 2019, 03:16
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nightblade354
This one is Tough. Answer is D
Here is my Analysis:
Conclusion:
An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg’s voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council.
Premise:
The editorial bases its claim on a recent survey that found that 59 percent of Grandburg’s registered voters think that the party will definitely be out of power after next year’s city council elections.
(A) The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will continue to feel about that party, barring unforeseeable political developments.
"Feeling about the party" is different from "voting for the party". Even if voters continue to feel about the party the same way as they did earlier, it is not for sure that they will vote against the party.
(B) The results of surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims about the likely future prospects of that political party.
"surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party " and "survey that the party will definitely be out of power after next year" are different again. Why?
Because, Voters may have sentiment towards some party and can also claim that the party will be out of power next year.
Example: John likes to see congress in power. But he has a gut feeling that congress will have to step down next year.
Assume that out of 100, 75 voters had sentiment toward a political party. But 59 guessed that it would be out of power next year. This does not mean that the 59 would vote against the party. This proportion discrepancy is fixed in option D.
(C) An increase in ill-feeling toward a political party that is in power can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding increase in support for rival political parties.
Again the same mistake as above. "ill feeling towards party" is different from "assuming party to step down"
(D) The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized.
What is the political possibility to be realized here? Guessing that the current party will step down.
What is the proportion of such people... 59 out of 100
So if the conclusion has to stay correct, equal proportion of voters should be voting for that possibility. In other words proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized should also be 59 out of 100. Only then the conclusion holds true.
(E) It can reasonably be assumed that registered voters who respond to a survey regarding the outcome of a future election will exercise their right to vote in that election.
Even if all the Registered voters exercise their right to vote in the election, we are not sure which party they are voting against. Conclusion cannot hold true.
Hope this helps!!
07 May 2019, 03:54
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The correct answer here should be D. This question is asking us to find an assumption, which justifies the argument. The key with such CR questions is to first ID the conclusion, since the correct answer will justify this same conclusion. In this question, the conclusion is that "Grandburg's voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council", since it is the claim/PoV the newspaper wants to convince us of.
So the conclusion is that people want a change of politics, and the premise on which that conclusion is based is that they expect there to be a change. Hence, we must find some assumption among the options that links expectation to desire.
A - Only states that people will continue to feel the same way about a party. However, we don't even know how they feel now, only what they expect. OUT
B - This option is closer, but implies reverse causation. It says that how people feel tells us about what they expect to happen. However, we are looking for the inverse, that what people expect tells us about how they feel. OUT
C - We know nothing about how people feel about this party, and even less about the rivals. This option is wildly irrelevant once the conclusion is clear. OUT
D - This option makes the clear link between what people expect and what they hope for, and does so in the right order as well, saying that expectations provide an approximate marker for the desired outcome. This option is therefore CORRECT
E - This option is a bit of a trap. It appears on the surface to be useful to know that the people who responded to the survey are a good representative of who will vote. But if we go back to the conclusion, we see that the claim is about what people want, and we still have zero information on their wants. All we know is what they expect, and we still need an assumption that connects their expectations to their desires. This option is also therefore OUT.
At the end of the day, the crux of all CR Assumption based questions is in identifying the conclusion. If you can do this effectively, your task is half done!
- Matoo
So the conclusion is that people want a change of politics, and the premise on which that conclusion is based is that they expect there to be a change. Hence, we must find some assumption among the options that links expectation to desire.
A - Only states that people will continue to feel the same way about a party. However, we don't even know how they feel now, only what they expect. OUT
B - This option is closer, but implies reverse causation. It says that how people feel tells us about what they expect to happen. However, we are looking for the inverse, that what people expect tells us about how they feel. OUT
C - We know nothing about how people feel about this party, and even less about the rivals. This option is wildly irrelevant once the conclusion is clear. OUT
D - This option makes the clear link between what people expect and what they hope for, and does so in the right order as well, saying that expectations provide an approximate marker for the desired outcome. This option is therefore CORRECT
E - This option is a bit of a trap. It appears on the surface to be useful to know that the people who responded to the survey are a good representative of who will vote. But if we go back to the conclusion, we see that the claim is about what people want, and we still have zero information on their wants. All we know is what they expect, and we still need an assumption that connects their expectations to their desires. This option is also therefore OUT.
At the end of the day, the crux of all CR Assumption based questions is in identifying the conclusion. If you can do this effectively, your task is half done!
- Matoo
