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In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr

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In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 04 Jul 2018, 20:22
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In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has increased. Yet, according to official government statistics, for none of those years has there been either an increase in the number of criminal cases brought to trial, or an increase in the rate at which convictions have been obtained. Clearly, therefore, the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?


(A) In Barraland the range of punishments that can be imposed instead of a prison sentence is wide.

(B) Over the last ten years, overcrowding in the prisons of Barraland has essentially been eliminated as a result of an ambitious program of prison construction.

(C) Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory.

(D) Barraland has been supervising convicts on parole more closely in recent years, with the result that parole violations have become significantly less frequent.

(E) The number of people in Barraland who feel that crime is on the increase is significantly greater now than it was five years ago.

Originally posted by imhimanshu on 28 Sep 2013, 07:58.
Last edited by Bunuel on 04 Jul 2018, 20:22, edited 2 times in total.
Edited the question.
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Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Feb 2014, 08:05
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PREMISE 1. In each of the past five years, Barraland’s prison population has increased.
PREMISE 2. None of those years has there been either anincrease in the number of criminal cases brought to trial, or an increase in the rate at which convictions have been obtained.

CONCLUSION- Clearly, therefore, the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

WE HAVE TO FIND A REASON HOW-
1. NO INCREASE IN NUMBER OF CRIMINAL CASES...SAY IT CONTINUES TO BE 100 AS BEFORE.....
2. NO INCREASE IN RATE OF CONVICTION..... SAY 10%....10 ARE CONVICTED AS BEFORE.....
3. NO INCREASE IN NUMBER OF THOSE CONVICTED GIVEN PRISON SENTENCE... SAY OUT OF 10 CONVICTED 20% ... THAT IS TWO GIVEN PRISON SENTENCE...

THAT IS HOW EVERY YEAR ONLY TWO NEW CONVICTS GO TO JAIL YET JAIL STRENGTH INCREASES........ONLY POSSIBLE IN CASE OF "C".....CORRECT ANSWER

C- Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory.

A,B,D AND E IRRELEVANT...


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Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Sep 2013, 11:44
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This is a good weaken question:
C1: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has increased.
P1: Yet, according to official government statistics, for none of those years has there been either an increase in the number of criminal cases brought to trial, or an increase in the rate at which convictions have been obtained
Conclusion: the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase.

We need to find the statement what will weaken the conclusion which claims that % of people convicted of crimes is on increase.

Lets look at the answer choices:

A. In Barraland the range of punishments that can be imposed instead of a prison sentence is wide.
This does not directly deal with or tell us why the % of people convicted of crimes is on the rise. It deals with prisons, but does not directly deal with the conclusion. So not it.

B. Over the last ten years, overcrowding in the prisons of Barraland has essentially been eliminated as a result of an ambitious program of prison construction.
Out of scope. Overcrowding is not mentioned in the passage and does not deal with the conclusion

C. Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory.
Now this is a good choice which claims that something that started 10 years ago is a result for more attendance in prison. It clearly states that the % of people in prison is increasing, not because of people convicted of crimes, but because of something (imposing longer minimum sentence for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory) that started 10 years ago. This weakens the conclusion and is the correct answer!

D. Barraland has been supervising convicts on parole more closely in recent years, with the result that parole violations have become significantly less frequent.
Parole deals with people already out of prison and is out of scope, Not it

E. The number of people in Barraland who feel that crime is on the increase is significantly greater now than it was five years ago.
It does not matter how many people 'feel' that crime is on the increase. Does not relate to our conclusion. Too broad to be the correct answer.

Correct answer: C

Hope this helps!
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Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Sep 2013, 20:15
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igotthis wrote:
D. Barraland has been supervising convicts on parole more closely in recent years, with the result that parole violations have become significantly less frequent.
Parole deals with people already out of prison and is out of scope, Not it


I liked your elimination, however I feel that the reason for eliminating is not because it is out of scope but because it is a strengthener. It is giving you a reason that people who are on parole are not likely to come back, and hence crowding in the prison could be because of the percentage of people getting convicted is on increase.
And.. remember Answer choices in Weaken and Strengthen questions are likely to be Out of Scope.
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Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Feb 2014, 07:50
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Target to weaken (conclusion): Clearly, therefore, the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase.

--

A- In Barraland the range of punishments that can be imposed instead of a prison sentence is wide. Irrelevant, still doesn't explain the reason behind the increase, thus incorrect.
B- Over the last ten years, overcrowding in the prisons of Barraland has essentially been eliminated as a result of an ambitious program of prison construction. Irrelevant
C- Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory. It essentially implies that there are more people in prison since the implementation of the reform, which explains the increase over time, correct.
D- Barraland has been supervising convicts on parole more closely in recent years, with the result that parole violations have become significantly less frequent. Irrelevant
E- The number of people in Barraland who feel that crime is on the increase is significantly greater now than it was five years ago. Irrelevant

--

Thanks for sharing.
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Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Jun 2014, 21:33
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Premise: Prison person increased, Criminal cases not increased, Convictions not increased.
Conclusion: So, Prisoners/convicts must have increased.

If I prove that prisoners increased not because of convicts but because of something else, then that would weaken the conclusion.

In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has increased. Yet, according to official government statistics, for none of those years has there been either an increase in the number of criminal cases brought to trial, or an increase in the rate at which convictions have been obtained. Clearly, therefore, the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

A. In Barraland the range of punishments that can be imposed instead of a prison sentence is wide.
If range is high, then why prisoners increased?
B. Over the last ten years, overcrowding in the prisons of Barraland has essentially been eliminated as a result of an ambitious program of prison construction.
Even if a program has been eliminated, its relation with the convict-prisoner hasn't been mentioned.
C. Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory.
Bingo ! Prisoners are living longer than they used to before.
D. Barraland has been supervising convicts on parole more closely in recent years, with the result that parole violations have become significantly less frequent.
Violations less frequent-> low number of convicts-> then why prisoner population increased?
E. The number of people in Barraland who feel that crime is on the increase is significantly greater now than it was five years ago.
Irrelevant.
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Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Jun 2015, 14:47
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I think this can be solve by looking at the assumption = A.
Conclusion = B.
A causes B.
Lets the stats be the way it is.
A= Clearly, therefore, the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase
B = Barraland’s prison population has increased

Can I find another cause for the increase in population (B) ?

C- since not much people are leaving so population increased
D- Less violation, less population in jail - so this option is out
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Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Oct 2017, 08:30
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imhimanshu wrote:
In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has increased. Yet, according to official government statistics, for none of those years has there been either an increase in the number of criminal cases brought to trial, or an increase in the rate at which convictions have been obtained. Clearly, therefore, the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

(A) In Barraland the range of punishments that can be imposed instead of a prison sentence is wide.

(B) Over the last ten years, overcrowding in the prisons of Barraland has essentially been eliminated as a result of an ambitious program of prison construction.

(C) Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory.

(D) Barraland has been supervising convicts on parole more closely in recent years, with the result that parole violations have become significantly less frequent.

(E) The number of people in Barraland who feel that crime is on the increase is significantly greater now than it was five years ago.


How to Attack a Causal Conclusion

Whenever you identify a causal relationship in the conclusion of a GMAT problem, immediately prepare to either weaken or strengthen the argument. Attacking a cause and effect relationship in Weaken questions almost always consists of performing one of the following tasks:

A. Find an alternate cause for the stated effect

Because the author believes there is only one cause, identifying another cause weakens the conclusion.

B. Show that even when the cause occurs, the effect does not occur

This type of answer often appears in the form of a counterexample. Because the author believes that the cause always produces the effect, any scenario where the cause occurs and the effect does not weaken the conclusion.

C. Show that although the effect occurs, the cause did not occur

This type of answer often appears in the form of a counterexample. Because the author believes that the effect is always produced by the same cause, any scenario where the effect occurs and the cause does not weaken the conclusion.

D. Show that the stated relationship is reversed

Because the author believes that the cause and effect relationship is correctly stated, showing that the relationship is backwards (the claimed effect is actually the cause of the claimed cause) undermines the conclusion.

E. Show that a statistical problem exists with the data used to make the causal statement

If the data used to make a causal statement are in error, then the validity of the causal claim is in question.


Conclusion : Clearly, therefore, the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase.

Quote:
A. Find an alternate cause for the stated effect

Because the author believes there is only one cause, identifying another cause weakens the conclusion.


Answer : (C) Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory.
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Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post 20 Jul 2018, 14:23
I got confused because of word "Longer minimum sentences " :(
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Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Jul 2018, 06:06
ammuseeru wrote:
I got confused because of word "Longer minimum sentences " :(

It means the minimum time at prison has made longer
For example:
5 years ago,prisoner has to stay at prison for at least 1 years
Now, prisoner has to stay at prison for at least 2 years

That's why:
the number of existing prisoners increases +
the number of new prisoners remains 0
---------------------------------------------------
Total prisoner population increases +

Hope that it helps
Re: In each of the past five years, Barraland's prison population has incr &nbs [#permalink] 27 Jul 2018, 06:06
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