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QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter

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QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter [#permalink]

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New post 07 Dec 2017, 05:08
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Verbal Question of The Day: Day 173: Critical Reasoning


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Which of the following most logically completes the argument?

Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter, but in recent decades economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields. In consequence, Utrania oil exports dropped steadily as old fields became depleted. Utrania's currently improving economic condition, together with less restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields. However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because __________.

A. the price of oil is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years.

B. the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranian's who own automobiles.

C. most of the investment in the oil fields in Utrania is expected to come from foreign sources.

D. new technology is available to recover oil from old oil fields formerly regarded as depleted.

E. many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developing during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter.


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Last edited by Skywalker18 on 07 Dec 2017, 19:27, edited 1 time in total.
Corrected OA

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QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter [#permalink]

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New post 07 Dec 2017, 07:30
souvik101990 wrote:

Verbal Question of The Day: Day 173: Critical Reasoning


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Which of the following most logically completes the argument?

Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter, but in recent decades economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields. In consequence, Utrania oil exports dropped steadily as old fields became depleted. Utrania's currently improving economic condition, together with less restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields. However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because __________.

A. the price of oil is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years.

B. the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranian's who own automobiles.

C. most of the investment in the oil fields in Utrania is expected to come from foreign sources.

D. new technology is available to recover oil from old oil fields formerly regarded as depleted.

E. many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developing during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter.


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hi..

while answering following points are of importance..
1) our answer should already take the development of oil fields as done THAT IS not to find something that would give reasons for new fields not been developed.
2) answer should find something questioning EXPORTS

ans B tells us that the demand for domestic use is increased manifold, so the increase of new fields may not result in higher oil exports as it may get consumed locally

B


Note OA given as D is wrong. It has to be B.
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Re: QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter [#permalink]

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New post 07 Dec 2017, 08:48
Which of the following most logically completes the argument?

Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter, but in recent decades economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields. In consequence, Utrania oil exports dropped steadily as old fields became depleted. Utrania's currently improving economic condition, together with less restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields. However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because __________.


Problem : oil exports dropped steadily -because old fields became depleted
_________-when[economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields]


Argument : rapid development of new fields may not result in higher oil exports -- because

A. the price of oil is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years.

B. the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranian's who own automobiles.

C. most of the investment in the oil fields in Utrania is expected to come from foreign sources.

D. new technology is available to recover oil from old oil fields formerly regarded as depleted.

E. many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developing during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter.

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Re: QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter [#permalink]

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New post 07 Dec 2017, 09:19
Correct option - B

our goal is to find something that supports the assertion that the rapid development of new fields will not result in higher oil exports.

People will buy automobiles.Internal consumption of oil will increase. This increase in internal consumption of oil will impact oil exports.

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Re: QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter [#permalink]

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New post 07 Dec 2017, 17:38
Explanation for the OA please, How does new tapping into depleted holes prevent oil export?

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Re: QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter [#permalink]

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New post 07 Dec 2017, 18:44
puneetj88 wrote:
Explanation for the OA please, How does new tapping into depleted holes prevent oil export?
That's a typo in the original post. The correct option is B, not D. Option D is quite clearly the opposite of what the question asks for.
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Re: QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter [#permalink]

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New post 15 Dec 2017, 08:44
Anyone can explain why E wrong?
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Re: QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter [#permalink]

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New post 15 Dec 2017, 20:45
septwibowo wrote:
Anyone can explain why E wrong?
With option E, we expect (a) rapid development of new fields and (b) the new fields to be as productive as the earlier ones. This is a good thing for exports. The statement we need to complete is however, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because... That is, we need to find an option that is bad for exports.

The correct option does that by suggesting that domestic consumption is likely to go up, which is not good for exports.
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Re: QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter [#permalink]

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New post 17 Dec 2017, 22:06
The author would like to reach the following conclusion: "it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports." Let's consider what we have so far...

  • Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter. The word "formerly" tells us that Utrania is no longer a major petroleum exporter.
  • Why is Utrania no longer a major petroleum exporter? It seems as though economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields in recent decades.
  • As a result, oil exports from Utrania dropped steadily as the old fields became depleted. In other words, they were using up the OLD supplies. Since investment in NEW fields was restricted, the overall supply steadily decreased. This led to a decrease in exports.
  • Now things are changing again. Economic conditions are improving in Utrania, and the regulations are now less restrictive. As a result, new fields will be developed rapidly, helping to replenish the decreasing supply.
  • But the author is reluctant to conclude that this rapid development will lead to higher oil exports.

So we are looking for something that would explain why EXPORTS might not increase even if new fields (new sources of oil) are rapidly developed. Notice that the author is not saying that the exports will DEFINITELY not increase. Rather, the author is merely suggesting that we don't know yet. In other words, it would be "premature" to conclude that the rapid development will result in higher oil exports.

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Quote:
A. the price of oil is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years.

The author expects the supply of oil to increase but does NOT expect exports to increase... why not? Perhaps if the price of oil were expected to plummet, it would not make economic sense to export the oil. But if the price of oil is expected to remain stable, we would expect an increase in supply to cause an increase in exports. Choice (A) does not explain this apparent discrepancy, so it can be eliminated.

Quote:
B. the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranian's who own automobiles.

We know that the new fields will help replenish the supply of oil, so why won't Utrania export that oil? Well, perhaps the demand for oil IN Utrania will increase. If the improvement in economic conditions causes a dramatic increase in automobile ownership, then we can expect an increase in domestic demand for oil to fuel those automobiles. So even though Utrania will be PRODUCING more oil, a larger chunk of that production will have to stay in Utrania to meet the increased domestic demand. This explains how supply could increase without an increase in exports, so hang on to choice (B).

Quote:
C. most of the investment in the oil fields in Utrania is expected to come from foreign sources.

It doesn't matter where the investment comes from. If we are rapidly developing new oil fields, we should increase the supply of oil. If we increase the supply of oil, why won't exports also increase? Choice (C) does not address this apparent discrepancy and can be eliminated.

Quote:
D. new technology is available to recover oil from old oil fields formerly regarded as depleted.

We already know that the new fields will increase the supply of oil. Choice (D) gives us even MORE reason to expect that oil supplies will increase. Not only do we have the oil from the new fields, but we'll also be able to squeeze some more oil out of the "depleted" fields. This further suggests that exports will increase and does not explain the author's conclusion. Eliminate (D).

Quote:
E. many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developing during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter.

Choice (E) might be tempting if it said that the new fields are NOT likely to be as productive as those developed when Utrania was a major exporter. If that were the case, we would have to doubt whether the rapid development would lead to a substantial increase in the supply of oil. However, as written, choice (E) simply gives us more reason to think that the new fields SHOULD lead to an increase in oil exports. This does not match the author's conclusion, so (E) can be eliminated.

Choice (B) is the best answer.
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Re: QOTD: Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter   [#permalink] 17 Dec 2017, 22:06
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