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Bunuel
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Bunuel
The upcoming presidential election in the West African republic of Ganelon is of grave concern to the U.S. State Department. Ganelon presently has strong political and military ties to the United States. However, the Socialist party is widely expected to win the election, leading to fears that Ganelon will soon break away from the pro-American bloc and adopt a nonaligned or openly anti-American stance.

Which of the following is an assumption made in the passage above?


(A) A Socialist party government in Ganelon is more likely to oppose the United States than is a non-Socialist party government.

(B) The people of the United States recognize their nation’s interest in the political stability of West Africa.

(C) A weakening of U.S. political ties with Ganelon could have serious consequences for U.S. relations with other African nations.

(D) The Socialist party leaders in Ganelon believe that their nation’s interests would best be served by an alliance with anti-American forces.

(E) The Socialist party will win the upcoming election in Ganelon.

Clean (A), negate option (A) the entire conclusion falls apart -

Socialist party government in Ganelon is unlikely to oppose the United States than is a non-Socialist party government.
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For me (D) can't be the answer because it is so narrow, assuming that "..party leaders..." but the voice in (A) is more wide saying " .. is more likely to ..".

So answer is (A).
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Why did you guys reject E? Any reasons?

If they never win the election, the argument pretty much falls apart. I liked A better too, but I wanted to risk it.
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Statement (A) is correct, as the Americans assume that socialist part is not their ally and hence does not allay their fears when the socialist party comes to power.Hence (a).
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Bunuel
The upcoming presidential election in the West African republic of Ganelon is of grave concern to the U.S. State Department. Ganelon presently has strong political and military ties to the United States. However, the Socialist party is widely expected to win the election, leading to fears that Ganelon will soon break away from the pro-American bloc and adopt a nonaligned or openly anti-American stance.

Which of the following is an assumption made in the passage above?
(A) A Socialist party government in Ganelon is more likely to oppose the United States than is a non-Socialist party government.

(B) The people of the United States recognize their nation’s interest in the political stability of West Africa.

(C) A weakening of U.S. political ties with Ganelon could have serious consequences for U.S. relations with other African nations.

(D) The Socialist party leaders in Ganelon believe that their nation’s interests would best be served by an alliance with anti-American forces.

(E) The Socialist party will win the upcoming election in Ganelon.


Lets re read the 2 options A and D, since they were my bottom 2
(B) The people of the United States recognize their nation’s interest in the political stability of West Africa.
Poeple's interest -> Outside the scope of this argument

(C) A weakening of U.S. political ties with Ganelon could have serious consequences for U.S. relations with other African nations.
other nations -> Out of scope

(E) The Socialist party will win the upcoming election in Ganelon.
Too specific -> Out

(A) A Socialist party government in Ganelon is more likely to oppose the United States than is a non-Socialist party government.
A Socialist party government in Ganelon is less likely to oppose the United States than is a non-Socialist party government.

(D) The Socialist party leaders in Ganelon believe that their nation’s interests would best be served by an alliance with anti-American forces.
The Socialist party leaders in Ganelon does not believe that their nation’s interests would best be served by an alliance with anti-American forces.
That is the key word which i missed, shouldn't it be American forces -> Irrelevant

Conclusion : the Socialist party is widely expected to win the election, leading to fears that Ganelon will soon break away from the pro-American bloc and adopt a nonaligned or openly anti-American stance

Answer A (

Read very carefully

)
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EducationAisle

Sir,
Option D clearly mentions that nation's interests would best be served by alliance with Anti-American forces. Doesn't this strengthen the conclusion.
On negation too, the nation's interests would not be best served with an alliance. Hence, Ganelon would not break away from the pro-American bloc.

Please evaluate where I am going wrong.
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krndatta

Sir,
Option D clearly mentions that nation's interests would best be served by alliance with Anti-American forces. Doesn't this strengthen the conclusion.
On negation too, the nation's interests would not be best served with an alliance. Hence, Ganelon would not break away from the pro-American bloc.

Please evaluate where I am going wrong.
Well, this is not a strengthen the conclusion question! It's an assumptions question. So, we are looking for the "missing piece" of information.

For example:

India is likely to face Australia in the finals, leading to fears that India will lose.
Assumption: Australia is a better team than India.

Similarly,

Socialist party is widely expected to win the election, leading to fears that Ganelon will soon break away from the pro-American bloc.
Assumption: Socialist party is anti-American.

This is exactly what A states.
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hmasand
Why did you guys reject E? Any reasons?

If they never win the election, the argument pretty much falls apart. I liked A better too, but I wanted to risk it.



Option E is already explicitly mentioned in the passage. An assumption must be something that is not explicitly mentioned but has been taken into consideration while writing the passage.
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Lets check this argument

The argument falls under the domino effect type flaw or we can treat this as metrics/definition flaws

We can target with any of the below mentioned logical gaps identification

1. The domino effect- The author assumes that the [Socialist party winning the election] will inevitably lead to [Ganelon adopting an anti-American stance], without providing evidence that [the Socialist party's actual foreign policy platform is opposed to the United States]

2. The metrics or definition flaws- the author mistakenly equates "Socialism" with "Anti-Americanism," treating them as identical concepts when they are not.

Having this thinking we will evaluate option choices

Option (A): A Socialist party government in Ganelon is more likely to oppose the United States than is a non-Socialist party government.

The Negation: A Socialist party government in Ganelon is NOT more likely to oppose the United States than a non-Socialist party government.

The Impact: The prompt states that the current (non-Socialist) government has "strong political and military ties" to the US. If the incoming Socialist government is equally as friendly to the US as the current one, the State Department's fear of them breaking away is completely baseless. The entire argument collapses. Because negating the statement destroys the conclusion, it is a strictly necessary assumption.

This perfectly catches the logical gaps of the domino effect


Bunuel
The upcoming presidential election in the West African republic of Ganelon is of grave concern to the U.S. State Department. Ganelon presently has strong political and military ties to the United States. However, the Socialist party is widely expected to win the election, leading to fears that Ganelon will soon break away from the pro-American bloc and adopt a nonaligned or openly anti-American stance.

Which of the following is an assumption made in the passage above?


(A) A Socialist party government in Ganelon is more likely to oppose the United States than is a non-Socialist party government.

(B) The people of the United States recognize their nation’s interest in the political stability of West Africa.

(C) A weakening of U.S. political ties with Ganelon could have serious consequences for U.S. relations with other African nations.

(D) The Socialist party leaders in Ganelon believe that their nation’s interests would best be served by an alliance with anti-American forces.

(E) The Socialist party will win the upcoming election in Ganelon.
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