It is tempting to add my bit to this video essay theory. So here it is-
Waived Applicants - If you're seeing an update for your video essay, then most likely you're being considered for Skype interviews at the moment. If the date hasn't changed since the waiver, then it may not be a great sign.
Interviewed Applicants - A video essay update should be a harbinger of better things as the Adcom is closing on the class for this round. If your date has not moved from some day in November, then perhaps you have been sidelined from the contest.
- I was interviewed on 28/10 and my video essay date has not changed from 20/11. Also, I have this feeling that I bombed my interview totally.