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Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests

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Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 02 Aug 2018, 05:24
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Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests in many of the world's important agricultural areas. Worldwide production of soybeans, an important source of protein for people and livestock alike, was not adversely affected, however. Indeed, last year's soybean crop was actually slightly larger than average. Nevertheless, the weather phenomenon is probably responsible for a recent increase in the world price of soybeans.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon?

(A) Last year's harvest of anchovies, which provide an important protein source for livestock, was disrupted by the effects of the weather phenomenon.

(B) Most countries that produce soybeans for export had above-average harvests of a number of food crops other than soybeans last year.

(C) The world price of soybeans also rose several years ago, immediately after an earlier occurrence of similar global weather disturbance.

(D) Heavy rains attributable to the weather phenomenon improved grazing pastures last year, allowing farmers in many parts of the world to reduce their dependence on supplemental feed.

(E) Prior to last year, soybean prices had been falling for several years.

Soybean Prices

Step 1: Identify the Question

The wording provides the strongest justification for in the question stem indicates that this is either a Strengthen the Argument or an Explain the Discrepancy problem. Read the entire argument to determine which it is.

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

Last yr: weather → bad harvests

BUT: soybean harvest = larger than avg

BUT: soybean prices ↑

© bad weather → soybean prices ↑

This is an Explain the Discrepancy problem, since it describes a surprising phenomenon that runs counter to what is expected. Bad weather last year affected most crops, but the soybean harvest was actually slightly larger than usual. You would expect, therefore, that soybean prices would be unaffected or decrease. Surprisingly, even though the soybean harvest itself was not diminished, the price of soybeans did increase.

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

In a Discrepancy problem, the right answer will explain why the surprising phenomenon occurred. In this case, the right answer will explain why high soybean prices can be blamed on bad weather.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) CORRECT. The argument describes soybeans as an important source of protein for people and livestock alike. According to this answer choice, anchovies are another important protein source, and the weather caused a disruption in the anchovy harvest. Since soybeans fill the same role as anchovies, unavailability of anchovies could have caused higher demand for soybeans, which in turn could have driven up the price of soybeans.

(B) This answer choice implies that the soybean harvest was good last year because the countries that produce soybeans had good harvests in general. However, the question asks you specifically to justify the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon. The right answer doesn’t need to show why the soybean harvest was good. It only needs to show why the weather was to blame for increased soybean prices.

(C) Without more information on the similarities between the previous situation and the current situation, there’s no way to know whether this justifies blaming the soybean prices on the recent weather disturbance. It’s possible that the two weather disturbances were similar, and the two changes in price happened for the same reason. However, it’s equally possible that the weather disturbances were very different, or that the previous weather disturbance didn’t actually cause the previous increase in prices.

(D) This would be more likely to cause a decrease in soybean prices than an increase. If farmers needed less supplemental livestock feed, they would be less likely to purchase soybeans, and the price might decrease.

(E) This answer choice actually suggests that something other than bad weather was to blame for the increase in prices. If soybean prices were abnormally low prior to the weather disturbance, it’s reasonable to conclude that they increased as part of a normal return to baseline, and that the increase had nothing to do with the weather.

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Originally posted by harishbiyani8888 on 25 Aug 2015, 19:24.
Last edited by hazelnut on 02 Aug 2018, 05:24, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 28 Aug 2015, 03:40
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Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests in many of the world's important agricultural areas. Worldwide production of soybeans, an important source of protein for people and livestock alike, was not adversely affected, however. Indeed, last year's soybean crop was was actually slightly larger than average. Nevertheless, the weather phenomenon is probably responsible for a recent increase in the world price of soybeans.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon?

Type: Strengthen
Premise: The production of soybean was not adversely affected by the weather, still there is an increase in the prices.

Analysis: The weather could be responsible for an increase in the prices if a substitute of soybean is destroyed.

A. Last year's harvest of anchovies, which provide an important protein source for livestock, was disrupted by the effects of the weather phenomenon.
This is what we are looking for. The anchovies are destroyed, because of which the livestock will have to rely on soybean, thus increase the demand and the price

B. Most countries that produce soybeans for export had above-average harvests of a number of food crops other than soybeans last year.
Out of context. This does not tell us anything about the case at hand.

C. The world price of soybeans also rose several years ago, immediately after an earlier occurrence of similar global weather disturbance.
Just because the price of soybean rose several years ago, we cannot say anything about this case.
Also, it cannot be said if the price increase was due to weather conditions or due to something else.


D. Heavy rains attributable to the weather phenomenon improved grazing pastures last year, allowing farmers in many parts of the world to reduce their dependence on supplemental feed.
This does not tell us anything about the case at hand and why the prices increased. Even if we consider soybean to be supplemental feed, then a reduce in demand should reduce the prices and not increase them

E. Prior to last year, soybean prices had been falling for several years.
Out of context. This does not tell us anything about the case at hand and why the prices increased.

Kindly mention difficulty level also, will add difficult level when sufficient answers are received.
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Oct 2015, 23:06
1
A global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests in many of the world's important agricultural areas. However Soybean production is more then last year. But Soybean prices have increased and the increase is due to the weather

The right answer will solve the gap. Soybean is considered an important source of protein .Weather may have disrupted other sources of protein .This would lead to a price increase for Soybean .

Option A brings out this gap and is the right answer.
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Oct 2015, 09:27
harishbiyani8888 wrote:
Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests in many of the world's important agricultural areas. Worldwide production of soybeans, an important source of protein for people and livestock alike, was not adversely affected, however. Indeed, last year's soybean crop was was actually slightly larger than average. Nevertheless, the weather phenomenon is probably responsible for a recent increase in the world price of soybeans.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon?

A. Last year's harvest of anchovies, which provide an important protein source for livestock, was disrupted by the effects of the weather phenomenon.
B. Most countries that produce soybeans for export had above-average harvests of a number of food crops other than soybeans last year.
C. The world price of soybeans also rose several years ago, immediately after an earlier occurrence of similar global weather disturbance.
D. Heavy rains attributable to the weather phenomenon improved grazing pastures last year, allowing farmers in many parts of the world to reduce their dependence on supplemental feed.
E. Prior to last year, soybean prices had been falling for several years.

Kindly mention difficulty level also, will add difficult level when sufficient answers are received.

Argument: SOYBEAN = source of protein for people and livestock
BAD WEATHER not make SOYBEAN CROP adversely affected, BUT SOYBEAN PRICE is still INCREASE

REASONS:
A, Stated the correct spot, because other source of protein for livestock is decreased, so the remaining source which included SOYBEAN will get increased price
B, EXPORTING status of the world countries IS irrelevant
C, Historical price is irrelevant
D, Reason why grazing thrive. out of scope.
E, Historical price is irrelevant

Only chocie A is correct here.
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 03 Feb 2016, 01:16
Can we conclude from the false of answer C to a general rule:
however the answer use a analog of different time, different country, and even different people,
this answer is always wrong?
And can we call the type of wrong answer as a false analog?

Anyone throws me some lights?
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Feb 2016, 04:07
The argument states that the production of Soybean was not adversely affected by change in weather patterns. First of all in "C" the incident was several years ago, second this time we cannot attribute the increase to change in weather patterns. Hence "C" is not an appropriate analogy to the present argument. This is a 700 level question.
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 16 Mar 2016, 03:28
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harishbiyani8888 wrote:
Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests in many of the world's important agricultural areas. Worldwide production of soybeans, an important source of protein for people and livestock alike, was not adversely affected, however. Indeed, last year's soybean crop was was actually slightly larger than average. Nevertheless, the weather phenomenon is probably responsible for a recent increase in the world price of soybeans.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon?

A. Last year's harvest of anchovies, which provide an important protein source for livestock, was disrupted by the effects of the weather phenomenon.
B. Most countries that produce soybeans for export had above-average harvests of a number of food crops other than soybeans last year.
C. The world price of soybeans also rose several years ago, immediately after an earlier occurrence of similar global weather disturbance.
D. Heavy rains attributable to the weather phenomenon improved grazing pastures last year, allowing farmers in many parts of the world to reduce their dependence on supplemental feed.
E. Prior to last year, soybean prices had been falling for several years.

Kindly mention difficulty level also, will add difficult level when sufficient answers are received.


Situation-The production of soybeans was not affected by the weather disturbances even though the disturbances affected many other crops.

Conclusion- The weather disturbance is still responsible for the increase in prices of the soybean crop.

Evaluation-
We have to provide a justification for the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon even though the argument states that the weather did not adversely affect the harvest of the soybean crop.


Weather-----> Soybean prices

Supply side is not affected by weather so may be the demand side is affected by the weather.Generally,Price rise can have two reasons-
1. Short supply and /or
2. High demand

Short supply has been ruled out by the argument.The weather phenomenon did not affect the soybean harvest
.

POE-

A. Last year's harvest of anchovies, which provide an important protein source for livestock, was disrupted by the effects of the weather phenomenon.

We are told that soybean is an important source of protein for people and livestock.
This option tells us that the supply of an important source of protein for livestock, anchoives, was in short supply .
Bingo, this helps us understand why there is surge in demand .Thus, the reason for price rise is HIGH demand.

B. Most countries that produce soybeans for export had above-average harvests of a number of food crops other than soybeans last year.

This strengthens the fact that the soybean supply was not affected by the weather. It is a kind of restatement of the fact presented in the argument.

C. The world price of soybeans also rose several years ago, immediately after an earlier occurrence of similar global weather disturbance.

So what? This option may help us to serve an example onsimilar price rise in the past but does not shed any light on the CAUSE of the price rise.

D. Heavy rains attributable to the weather phenomenon improved grazing pastures last year, allowing farmers in many parts of the world to reduce their dependence on supplemental feed.

This option weakens the conclusion. This is exactly opposite of what we are looking for- Less demand. Less demand and good supply donot justify the price rise.

E. Prior to last year, soybean prices had been falling for several years.

This option is besides the point. We want to know why price rose now .




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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Jul 2017, 08:23
After reading the paradox we can conclude vaguely that the price of soybean increased because the production of other crops fell. This is clearly stated in the premise that most crops suffered except soybean. Somewhere some people are now relying on soybean since their primary source of protein suffered due to the weather.

Answer E is also a trap. You could consider soybean a cyclical crop but the premise clearly states that the weather caused the price to increase and nothing else. Hence our original conclusion that some other crop failed and soybean took advantage makes complete sense. Answer is A

B. Most countries that produce soybeans for export had above-average harvests of a number of food crops other than soybeans last year. - No, this weakens the reliance on soybean hence makes the paradox muddled.
C. The world price of soybeans also rose several years ago, immediately after an earlier occurrence of similar global weather disturbance.- No, this cannot be a strong enough reason for price to go up again.
D. Heavy rains attributable to the weather phenomenon improved grazing pastures last year, allowing farmers in many parts of the world to reduce their dependence on supplemental feed.- No, this weakens the reliance on soybean
E. Prior to last year, soybean prices had been falling for several years.- No, this could mean that the weather was erratic for many years but the premise says only last year the weather was bad. Hence, soybean was not selling well irrespective of the weather.
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 14 Oct 2017, 17:40
I got this answer correct but didn't look at it from a "Strengthen" perspective but rather from a "Resolve the Paradox" one because I do not see a conclusion on here?
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 18 Oct 2017, 11:58
iamnobug wrote:
I got this answer correct but didn't look at it from a "Strengthen" perspective but rather from a "Resolve the Paradox" one because I do not see a conclusion on here?

The conclusion is that "[last year's global disturbance of weather patterns] is probably responsible for a recent increase in the world price of soybeans."

Check out the Ultimate CR Guide for Beginners for tips on how to navigate CR questions without worrying so much about the question type.

I hope that helps!
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Oct 2017, 22:14
1
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harishbiyani8888 wrote:
Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests in many of the world's important agricultural areas. Worldwide production of soybeans, an important source of protein for people and livestock alike, was not adversely affected, however. Indeed, last year's soybean crop was actually slightly larger than average. Nevertheless, the weather phenomenon is probably responsible for a recent increase in the world price of soybeans.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon?

(A) Last year's harvest of anchovies, which provide an important protein source for livestock, was disrupted by the effects of the weather phenomenon.

(B) Most countries that produce soybeans for export had above-average harvests of a number of food crops other than soybeans last year.

(C) The world price of soybeans also rose several years ago, immediately after an earlier occurrence of similar global weather disturbance.

(D) Heavy rains attributable to the weather phenomenon improved grazing pastures last year, allowing farmers in many parts of the world to reduce their dependence on supplemental feed.

(E) Prior to last year, soybean prices had been falling for several years.


Resolve the Paradox Question Review

Each Resolve the Paradox stimulus presents a situation where two ideas or occurrences contradict each other.

Besides the discrepant or contradictory facts, most Resolve the Paradox stimuli contain the following features:

1. No conclusion

2. Language of contradiction

The correct answer will actively resolve the paradox—it will allow both sides to be factually correct and it will either explain how the situation came into being or add a piece of information that shows how the two ideas or occurrences can coexist.

Because you are not seeking to disprove one side of the situation, you must select the answer choice that contains a possible cause of the situation. So, when examining answers, ask yourself if the answer choice could lead to the situation in the stimulus. If so, the answer is correct. The following types of answers are incorrect:

1. Explains only one side of the paradox

If an answer supports or proves only one side of the paradox, that answer will be incorrect. The correct answer must show how both sides coexist.

2. Similarities and differences

If the stimulus contains a paradox where two items are similar, then an answer choice that explains a difference between the two cannot be correct.

Conversely, if the stimulus contains a paradox where two items are different, then an answer choice that explains why the two are similar cannot be correct.

In short, a similarity cannot explain a difference, and a difference cannot explain a similarity.

When attempting to resolve the problem in the stimulus, you must address the facts of the situation. Many answers will try to lure you with reasonable solutions that do not quite meet the stated facts. These answers are incorrect.


Soybean Prices

Step 1: Identify the Question

The wording provides the strongest justification for in the question stem indicates that this is either a Strengthen the Argument or an Explain the Discrepancy problem. Read the entire argument to determine which it is.

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

Last yr: weather → bad harvests

BUT: soybean harvest = larger than avg

BUT: soybean prices ↑

© bad weather → soybean prices ↑

This is an Explain the Discrepancy problem, since it describes a surprising phenomenon that runs counter to what is expected. Bad weather last year affected most crops, but the soybean harvest was actually slightly larger than usual. You would expect, therefore, that soybean prices would be unaffected or decrease. Surprisingly, even though the soybean harvest itself was not diminished, the price of soybeans did increase.

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

In a Discrepancy problem, the right answer will explain why the surprising phenomenon occurred. In this case, the right answer will explain why high soybean prices can be blamed on bad weather.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) CORRECT. The argument describes soybeans as an important source of protein for people and livestock alike. According to this answer choice, anchovies are another important protein source, and the weather caused a disruption in the anchovy harvest. Since soybeans fill the same role as anchovies, unavailability of anchovies could have caused higher demand for soybeans, which in turn could have driven up the price of soybeans.

(B) This answer choice implies that the soybean harvest was good last year because the countries that produce soybeans had good harvests in general. However, the question asks you specifically to justify the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon. The right answer doesn’t need to show why the soybean harvest was good. It only needs to show why the weather was to blame for increased soybean prices.

(C) Without more information on the similarities between the previous situation and the current situation, there’s no way to know whether this justifies blaming the soybean prices on the recent weather disturbance. It’s possible that the two weather disturbances were similar, and the two changes in price happened for the same reason. However, it’s equally possible that the weather disturbances were very different, or that the previous weather disturbance didn’t actually cause the previous increase in prices.

(D) This would be more likely to cause a decrease in soybean prices than an increase. If farmers needed less supplemental livestock feed, they would be less likely to purchase soybeans, and the price might decrease.

(E) This answer choice actually suggests that something other than bad weather was to blame for the increase in prices. If soybean prices were abnormally low prior to the weather disturbance, it’s reasonable to conclude that they increased as part of a normal return to baseline, and that the increase had nothing to do with the weather.
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 14 Nov 2017, 02:59
boiled down to A and D.
A not only directly links with the argument, but also removes an alternative cause that may reduce the price of the soybean.
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Mar 2018, 03:33
I'm still not quite sure why C is wrong , is it akin to correlation does not imply causation?
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Re: Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Mar 2018, 16:01
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bpdulog wrote:
I'm still not quite sure why C is wrong , is it akin to correlation does not imply causation?

Exactly! When the price of soybeans rose several years ago, was it because of the similar global weather disturbance? Or was that simply a coincidence?

For example, I may have won the lottery twice, and both times I was wearing the same shirt. Does that mean that the shirt was responsible for my winning the lottery? Maybe! :) (Note: I have not actually won the lottery twice, but if you have any winning tickets laying around, I'll send you my mailing address.)

Anyway, maybe if this same coincidence happened hundreds of times, then it might suggest that the weather disturbance is indeed responsible for the rise in prices. But with only two data points, we don't have enough evidence. (C) certainly doesn't hurt the argument, but it does not provide strong "justification for the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon."

I hope that helps!
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