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Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara

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Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara  [#permalink]

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New post 21 Jun 2018, 22:55
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GMAT® Official Guide Verbal Review 2019

Practice Question
Question No.: SC
Online test bank question number : CR02851

Which of the following most logically completes the market forecaster's argument?

Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are comparatively scarce but drops sharply when pecans are abundant. Thus, in high-yield years, growers often store part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses until after the next year's harvest, hoping for higher prices then. Because of bad weather, this year's pecan crop will be very small. Nevertheless, pecan prices this year will not be significantly higher than last year, since __________.

(A) the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widely established

(B) last year's pecan harvest was the largest in the last 40 years

(C) pecan prices have remained relatively stable in recent years

(D) pecan yields for some farmers were as high this year as they had been last year

(E) the quality of this year's pecan crop is as high as the quality of any pecan crop in the previous five years

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Re: Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Jun 2018, 01:30
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If last year, most of the farmers stored pecans in large refrigerators, then this year, despite a low pecan yield, prices of pecans will be lower than last year or similar to last year because farmers will sell last years yield and flood the market with pecans

Only option B supports the above.
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Re: Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Jun 2018, 03:25
the answer is B.

we can answer this using the

Logical

approach, since this question is about straightforward inference.
The argument tells us that: when pecans are scarce, the price is high. however, this year the price is not high > this means pecans must not be scarce. Add to this the two additional bits of information: few pecans grew this year, but when there are many pecans they can be stored for the next year. The conclusion is clear: last year there must have been many pecans, which were then stored, resulting in a fair amount this year. This is answer (B): last year's pecan harvest was the largest in the last 40 years


As always, we can also eliminate the other answers:

(A) the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widely established - irelevant, which cares about last time?

(C) pecan prices have remained relatively stable in recent years doesn't mean they will this year, as we know, price is determined by scarcity

(D) pecan yields for some farmers were as high this year as they had been last year who cares about other famers?

(E) the quality of this year's pecan crop is as high as the quality of any pecan crop in the previous five years we care about quantity, not quality
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Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Jun 2018, 06:32
DavidTutorexamPAL wrote:
the answer is B.

we can answer this using the

Logical

approach, since this question is about straightforward inference.
The argument tells us that: when pecans are scarce, the price is high. however, this year the price is not high > this means pecans must not be scarce. Add to this the two additional bits of information: few pecans grew this year, but when there are many pecans they can be stored for the next year. The conclusion is clear: last year there must have been many pecans, which were then stored, resulting in a fair amount this year. This is answer (B): last year's pecan harvest was the largest in the last 40 years


As always, we can also eliminate the other answers:

(A) the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widely established - irelevant, which cares about last time?

(C) pecan prices have remained relatively stable in recent years doesn't mean they will this year, as we know, price is determined by scarcity

(D) pecan yields for some farmers were as high this year as they had been last year who cares about other famers?

(E) the quality of this year's pecan crop is as high as the quality of any pecan crop in the previous five years we care about quantity, not quality


If you glance the argument again, we have:
"Thus, in high-yield years, growers often store part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses until after the next year's harvest, hoping for higher prices then. "

If B were correct, then it would mean that the growers would now sell their stocked products at higher prices. On the contrary, the premise says that " pecan prices this year will not be significantly higher than last year".
B logically contradicts the premise.


In my opinion, the correct answer should be A.

Premise: The price of pecans is high when pecans are comparatively scarce

A: the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widely established
Analysis: The yield of previous year is comparable to that of this year. It's not comparatively scarce. So, we can say that this year the price of pecans will not be significantly higher than last year.
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Re: Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Jun 2018, 10:05
TaN1213 wrote:
DavidTutorexamPAL wrote:
the answer is B.

we can answer this using the

Logical

approach, since this question is about straightforward inference.
The argument tells us that: when pecans are scarce, the price is high. however, this year the price is not high > this means pecans must not be scarce. Add to this the two additional bits of information: few pecans grew this year, but when there are many pecans they can be stored for the next year. The conclusion is clear: last year there must have been many pecans, which were then stored, resulting in a fair amount this year. This is answer (B): last year's pecan harvest was the largest in the last 40 years


As always, we can also eliminate the other answers:

(A) the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widely established - irelevant, which cares about last time?

(C) pecan prices have remained relatively stable in recent years doesn't mean they will this year, as we know, price is determined by scarcity

(D) pecan yields for some farmers were as high this year as they had been last year who cares about other famers?

(E) the quality of this year's pecan crop is as high as the quality of any pecan crop in the previous five years we care about quantity, not quality


If you glance the argument again, we have:
"Thus, in high-yield years, growers often store part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses until after the next year's harvest, hoping for higher prices then. "

If B were correct, then it would mean that the growers would now sell their stocked products at higher prices. On the contrary, the premise says that " pecan prices this year will not be significantly higher than last year".
B logically contradicts the premise.


In my opinion, the correct answer should be A.

Premise: The price of pecans is high when pecans are comparatively scarce

A: the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widely established
Analysis: The yield of previous year is comparable to that of this year. It's not comparatively scarce. So, we can say that this year the price of pecans will not be significantly higher than last year.


Hey TaN1213 - I disagree.
Regarding (A) - it seems to me you may be assuming that "the last time the pecan crop was as small" was last year - but nowhere does it say that. It may have been 20 years ago, in which cast this information would be irrelevant.
Regarding (B) - of (B) were correct, then there would be a large amount of pecans, meaning they would not be scarce, meaning the price would not be high. Which is what we are told.
Why do you think if (B) were correct, the price would be high?
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Re: Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara  [#permalink]

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New post 30 Oct 2018, 14:40
DavidTutorexamPAL wrote:
the answer is B.

we can answer this using the

Logical

approach, since this question is about straightforward inference.
The argument tells us that: when pecans are scarce, the price is high. however, this year the price is not high > this means pecans must not be scarce. Add to this the two additional bits of information: few pecans grew this year, but when there are many pecans they can be stored for the next year. The conclusion is clear: last year there must have been many pecans, which were then stored, resulting in a fair amount this year. This is answer (B): last year's pecan harvest was the largest in the last 40 years


As always, we can also eliminate the other answers:

(A) the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widely established - irelevant, which cares about last time?

(C) pecan prices have remained relatively stable in recent years doesn't mean they will this year, as we know, price is determined by scarcity

(D) pecan yields for some farmers were as high this year as they had been last year who cares about other famers?

(E) the quality of this year's pecan crop is as high as the quality of any pecan crop in the previous five years we care about quantity, not quality


Hi DavidTutorexamPAL, I am confused with this question as well as with your explanation.

My logic here is :
- This year, pecan crop will be very small, thus, the price will be going up.
- However, pecan price this year will not be higher than last year.
- You explained that :

Quote:
however, this year the price is not high > this means pecans must not be scarce


- I disagree with "the price is not high". The passage just says the price will not be higher.

Would you mind to explain a bit more? Highly appreciated!
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Re: Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara  [#permalink]

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New post 31 Oct 2018, 03:49
septwibowo wrote:
DavidTutorexamPAL wrote:
the answer is B.

we can answer this using the

Logical

approach, since this question is about straightforward inference.
The argument tells us that: when pecans are scarce, the price is high. however, this year the price is not high > this means pecans must not be scarce. Add to this the two additional bits of information: few pecans grew this year, but when there are many pecans they can be stored for the next year. The conclusion is clear: last year there must have been many pecans, which were then stored, resulting in a fair amount this year. This is answer (B): last year's pecan harvest was the largest in the last 40 years


As always, we can also eliminate the other answers:

(A) the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widely established - irelevant, which cares about last time?

(C) pecan prices have remained relatively stable in recent years doesn't mean they will this year, as we know, price is determined by scarcity

(D) pecan yields for some farmers were as high this year as they had been last year who cares about other famers?

(E) the quality of this year's pecan crop is as high as the quality of any pecan crop in the previous five years we care about quantity, not quality


Hi DavidTutorexamPAL, I am confused with this question as well as with your explanation.

My logic here is :
- This year, pecan crop will be very small, thus, the price will be going up.
- However, pecan price this year will not be higher than last year.
- You explained that :

Quote:
however, this year the price is not high > this means pecans must not be scarce


- I disagree with "the price is not high". The passage just says the price will not be higher.

Would you mind to explain a bit more? Highly appreciated!


septwibowo,

I think the argument says - the price of this year's pecan crop will not be significantly higher than last year's. not being significantly higher is the key here.
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Re: Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara  [#permalink]

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New post 31 Oct 2018, 05:36
septwibowo wrote:
DavidTutorexamPAL wrote:
the answer is B.

we can answer this using the

Logical

approach, since this question is about straightforward inference.
The argument tells us that: when pecans are scarce, the price is high. however, this year the price is not high > this means pecans must not be scarce. Add to this the two additional bits of information: few pecans grew this year, but when there are many pecans they can be stored for the next year. The conclusion is clear: last year there must have been many pecans, which were then stored, resulting in a fair amount this year. This is answer (B): last year's pecan harvest was the largest in the last 40 years


As always, we can also eliminate the other answers:

(A) the last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year's crop had not yet become widely established - irelevant, which cares about last time?

(C) pecan prices have remained relatively stable in recent years doesn't mean they will this year, as we know, price is determined by scarcity

(D) pecan yields for some farmers were as high this year as they had been last year who cares about other famers?

(E) the quality of this year's pecan crop is as high as the quality of any pecan crop in the previous five years we care about quantity, not quality


Hi DavidTutorexamPAL, I am confused with this question as well as with your explanation.

My logic here is :
- This year, pecan crop will be very small, thus, the price will be going up.
- However, pecan price this year will not be higher than last year.
- You explained that :

Quote:
however, this year the price is not high > this means pecans must not be scarce


- I disagree with "the price is not high". The passage just says the price will not be higher.

Would you mind to explain a bit more? Highly appreciated!



You are correct that the price will not be high in a relative sense (that is, not much higher), but the logic remains the same: if pecans were scarce (relatively), the price would be a lot higher; the fact that this is not the case (they are not means higher), means the cause must not exist - they must not be scarce. (B) tells us why: we still have leftover pecans from last year.
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Re: Market forecaster: The price of pecans is high when pecans are compara &nbs [#permalink] 31 Oct 2018, 05:36
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