Please Grade my AWA

The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

The argument states that the firm should transfer its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee, because stable trends show that old people drink more coffee and less cola, and the population will age over the next 20 years, thus increasing demand for coffee. This argument has a couple of flaws in its reasoning that undermine its effectiveness. First off, the firm has no idea what the performance of Early Bird Coffee is to begin with, making the switch risky by nature. Second of all, when it comes to demographic changes, the statistics don't account for the changing tastes in younger people, specifically millennials. Finally, we are also unaware of whether or not older consumers will have the resources to continuously indulge in coffee.
The conclusion of the argument tells us that the firm ought to make the switch from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee, and the only information that we get about Early Bird Coffee is that it's a coffee company, part of an industry slated to grow in the next 20 years. This does not make Early Bird Coffee by itself a successful enterprise. Cola Loca, however, already has a big share of the firm's investments, indicating that the present time, if we assume the firm is competent, Cola Loca is a stable company. There has been no data on Early Bird Coffee that shows that its growth rate warrants giving up on a company like Cola Loca that the firm itself already has faith in, and such data would improve this argument.

Second of all, we assume, given the statistics, that the older adults section of the population that will age over the next 20 years will share the same taste in coffee. This is incredibly challenging to believe given that many new sources of refreshment such as herbal teas and case in point, kombucha, have popped up in markets. This, coupled with the growing awareness of the decrepit conditions coffee laborers face in farming beans ("fair trade" beans have also been proven to not be fair trade in practice, relying on some convenient loopholes to get the label) may signal that the incoming consumer base would be turning away from coffee. Herbal teas, on the other hand, can be easily locally grown and sourced for the discerning clientele, and yet we don't get data on trends of both herbal tea and coffee with the younger generation which is projected to be more avid coffee drinkers in the future. Said data would be important in determining whether the coffee market is worth investing in the first place.

Finally, jokes aside, coffee by nature is a luxury good, and not a necessity according to college students. Demographic changes have projected that the U.S. population will grow, but demographic changes also show that the U.S. population on average will be living on less and lesser means. This does not bode well when it comes to the growing prices inflation brings, which leaves one final option for the coffee addict: cheap coffee sold by the likes of fast-food chains. Once again, this doesn't make sense when the argument suggests the firm switch to Early Bird Coffee, as we don't know if Early Bird Coffee not only sells cheap coffee, but has the potential to break into the market dominated by megacorporations.

The argument that the firm should switch its investments to Early Bird Coffee from Cola Loca based on a couple of trends seems convincing at first, but contains some missing pieces of the puzzle and shoddy logic. First of all, we have no statistics on Early Bird Coffee's performance and how stable the company is, compared to Cola Loca, which the firm has invested in in the past until the present, indicating trustworthiness. There is no real reason other than projected trends for the firm to ditch a stable company for the unknown. Second of all, the change in demographics part of the argument fails to account for changing tastes. Coffee could very well go out of fashion, especially with newer revelations about the conditions it is grown in coupled with a more discerning future clientele. Finally, the projections fail to account for the dropping purchasing power of the average consumer, which limits them to buying cheap coffee. Cheap coffee is a market already dominated by major corporations, so how do we know if Early Bird Coffee has what it takes to challenge them? The argument needs more information on Early Bird Coffee to be more compelling, as well as more data on the preferences of the aging consumer base.