EMPOWERgmat Official Explanation
Type: Inference
Boil It Down: Rain down -> Algae down -> Larvae down -> Minnows, frogs down
Goal: Based on the prompt, find the option that has to be true with 100% certainty.
Analysis: This is a classic Inference question. Given the information in the prompt that there is this sequence of dependency attributable to rain: Rain down -> Algae down -> Larvae down -> Minnows, frogs down, we need to find an option that follows from that information with 100% certainty.
Bigger GMAT Picture: In Inference questions, GMAC will be guaranteed to deliver 2 types of incorrect options:
❶ Options that seem altogether reasonable, but are not supported by the facts given (this is the most tempting incorrect option variety in Inference questions)
❷ Options that are too extreme to be supported by the facts given
(A) The impact from drought extends well beyond ponds and streams.
Nope! Incorrect Type 1: Very reasonable, but not supported. This option cannot be concluded since on the basis of solely what’s in this prompt, there is no way to know what happens BEYOND ponds and streams.
(B) A species’ reliance on rain-dependent populations can lead to its extinction.
Incorrect Type 2: Too extreme! Outside of the context of this prompt. This option seems completely reasonable, right? But “reasonable” is not the assignment in inference questions. Can you look at this prompt and say “yes, if a species is reliant on rain-dependent populations, that species can go EXTINCT because of that reliance?” No. We are given no basis in the prompt to know that this dependency can lead to the extinction of that species (a decline in population is not even close to the same thing as extinction). It’s the extinction part of the option that gets it into trouble. Extinction is a consequence that’s too extreme on the basis of this prompt.
(C) Insect larvae dependent populations impacted by periods of drought revive with subsequent rain.
Incorrect Types 1, and 2: Very reasonable, but unsupported and too extreme. Since it’s a VERY reasonable supposition to make that if rain returns after periods of drought that insect larvae dependent populations revive with subsequent rain. However, here’s the problem. Do we know that insect larvae populations ALWAYS revive? No. Despite how reasonable that is, the statement that they REVIVE is too extreme since phrasing it as “revive” guarantees revival. Perhaps there are cases in which the populations never revive for whatever reason. Since this option cannot be concluded with 100% certainty, it’s gone.
[b](D) During periods of drought, the populations of species that depend on pond algae tend to contract.
Yes! This has to be true, and there’s one phrase that serves as the primary engine behind why this option wins: “TEND TO”. That phrase “tend to” is so fluffy, lovely, and light that in a prompt filled with absolutes “tend to” makes this option supremely agreeable.
Specifically, here’s the breakdown: on the basis of this prompt, the claim that pond and stream algae dependent species tend to contract can be firmly concluded since we know that algae populations in ponds and streams are so severely impacted that populations that rely on algae plummet (notice that this is phrased as an absolute: populations of algae dependent species plummet), and subsequently so do insect larvae dependent populations (also phrased as an absolute: these populations plummet---that’s what happens, period). That is 100% supported by the prompt. See “EMPOWERgmat Bigger GMAT Perspective” below to learn more about why the phrase “tend to” is so critical here.
(E) If minnows and frogs fail to prosper, it is attributable to a decline in the population of algae in ponds and streams.
Incorrect Type 2: This option attempts an unsupported reversal of logic:
According to the prompt: Algae down causes minnows and frogs to go down
Option E: If the minnow and frog population is down it’s because of algae down
Here’s the problem: do we know for a fact that the only way minnow and frog populations could go down is because of a drop in rain-dependent algae? No. A drop in rain-dependent algae is a factor, but we can’t state that it’s the ONLY factor, so option E is too extreme..
EMPOWERgmat Bigger GMAT Perspective:
The concept of an inference as it appears on the GMAT is widely misunderstood. People often think that Inference questions are asking them to look for something reasonable/generally agreeable, but on the GMAT those are incorrect options. GMAT Inference questions are seeking to measure whether you can determine which option can be factually determined. GMAT Inference questions will directly reward you for that understanding.
Additionally, it’s imperative to know that on the GMAT, we’re asked to operate with the true logical meaning of relative quantity terms such as:
Some - At least 1
Could - Greater than a 0% chance
Might - Greater than a 0% chance
Will - 100% chance
Tend to - At a bare minimum, the phrase “tend to” suggests a greater than 50% chance. The facts in this prompt definitively support at least a 50% chance that during periods of drought, the populations of species that depend on pond algae contract. Note that the phrase “contract” simply means <0, that there is at least some decline.