One analyst of the liquor industry estimated that this year a few

Question

One analyst of the liquor industry estimated that this year a few liquor stores have experienced  declining sales of up to fifty percent but predicted that the industry as a whole will maintain a volume of sales fairly close to last year .

(A) declining sales of up to fifty percent but predicted that the industry as a whole will maintain a volume of sales fairly close to last year

(B) declines in sales of up to fifty percent but predicted that the industry as a whole would have maintained a volume of sales fairly close to last year

(C) up to fifty percent in declining sales but predicted that the industry as a whole would maintain a volume of sales fairly close to last year’s

(D) sales declines of up to fifty percent but predicted that the industry as a whole would maintain a volume of sales fairly close to last year’s

(E) declines up to fifty percent of sales but predicted that the industry as a whole will have maintained a volume of sales fairly close to last year’s

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GMATIntensive · Accepted Answer

Sentence Analysis

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The sentence presents an estimate and a prediction of one analyst. The estimate is that this year a few liquor stores have experienced a decline of up to 50 percent in sales. The prediction is that the liquor industry as a whole will have almost the same sales as it had last year.

The sentence has the following errors:

1. “Of up to fifty percent” modifies “sales”, which doesn’t make sense; the phrase needed to modify “decline”.
2. In “volume of sales fairly close to last year”, the volume of sales is being compared with last year, not last year’s volume.

Option Analysis

A.  Questions  
 Incorrect . For the errors mentioned above.

B.  Questions 
 Incorrect . For the following reasons:
1. The verb “would have maintained” means that we’re talking about the past. For example, Raj would have canceled the flight last year. However, this verb is part of a clause acting as an object for the verb “predicted” and thus is incorrect here.
2. The second error of the original sentence.

C.  Questions  
 Incorrect . For the following reasons:
1. This option says that liquor stores have experienced up to fifty percent in xyz. It doesn’t make sense to say that the stores experienced a percent! The stores experienced a decline of a certain percent.
2. Since “declining” is just a modifier for “sales”, the structure currently is “up to fifty percent in sales”. Doesn’t make sense! It has to be “up to fifty percent decline in sales”.

D.  Questions  
 Correct . The verb “would maintain” is the past tense form of “will maintain”, which is needed since the prediction was made in the past (“predicted”).

E.  Questions 
 Incorrect . For the following reasons:
1. The word “declines” needs to be followed by the preposition “of”. We can see this error more clearly if we remove “up to”, which is just a modifier for fifty percent. Without “up to”, the sentence becomes “the stores have experienced declines fifty percent of sales”. That’s wrong!
2. When we use the future perfect tenses (will have maintained), we need to have a reference event (or point of reference) in the future by which this event must have completed. For example, the industry will have made 10% profits by March this year. The phrase “by March this year” specifies the reference point before which the action in the future perfect tense (will have made) must have completed. In the given option, there is no such reference point. Thus, the use of future perfect tense is incorrect.

In this question, “but” has been used as a conjunction to connect two verbs “estimated” and “predicted”. Such usage is pretty common. “But” is a conjunction like “and”.

daagh · Answer

sunny
"Declines' is a plural noun. "Sales" acts an adjective in this context. This is just a two-word noun phrase acting as the object of the verb "have experienced" and not a two-word clause.

romen2017 · Answer

D.
1. last year vs last year's- a and b are out
2. estimated ... predicted .... would vs will - would should work... E is out.
3. Declining sales and sales decline- Sales decline seems right. C is out.

ArtVandaley · Answer

I prefer D. Would is preferred over will as we are talking about future from the past.

Not happy with the overall sentence though. Analyst has estimated that few stores   have    experienced sales declines. When you use  have , you indicate with certainty. When you estimate, you should use may, not have.

gmatt1476 · Answer

Official Explanation

Verb form; Rhetorical construction

The sentence reports one analyst's views about the liquor industry's sales performance this year: there will be large declines in sales in a few liquor stores, and this year's sales volume will be close to last year's sales volume.

A. This choice is incorrect because it refers to sales themselves rather than to declines in sales. Furthermore, it compares a volume of sales with a year.

B. This choice incorrectly uses would have maintained after the simple past predicted.

C. The phraseology have experienced up to fifty percent is incorrect, since a percent cannot be experienced. The phraseology up to fifty percent in declining sales fails to indicate clearly that sales declined by fifty percent from the previous year.

D. Correct. This choice correctly refers to declines, uses the correct would maintain, and correctly compares this year's sales volume with last year's sales volume.

E. This choice incorrectly uses will have maintained after the simple past predicted.

The correct answer is D.

sunny91 · Answer

hazelnut ,  ArtVandaley ,  daagh ,
How is sales declines correct. Sales is plural. So, how can we have declines in the OA.

unraveled · Answer

A. Here 'declining sales' is fine. There are two wrong things - tense(will) and incorrect comparison of 'sales' and 'last year'. 'Would' should be used.
B. There's more grim error in this option than option A had. Wrong tense form and comparison issue similar to option A.
C. Wrong placement of modifier. 'up to fifty percent decline in sales' would have been correct. Rest o the option is okay.
D. Rectifies all issues. Correct option.
E. 'declines of sales' is wrong. Again a wrong tense usage.

PhantomAY · Answer

A) "predicted" contradicted "will", should be "would"; also "last year" cannot be compared to "volume" directly
B) "predicted" and "would have" (conditional perfect) are contradictory; also "last year" cannot be compared to "volume"
C) "experience up to fifty percent" is weird
D) correct
E) "of sales" is far away from "declines", "will have" (future perfect, not sure even this form exist anywhere) contradicts with "predicted"

Anshurana · Answer

We have 2 splits here:

last year Vs last year's
Volume of sales should be compared with the sales of last year C,D,E are comparing correctly.

A, B are OUT  
 
Now in C,D,E.

They are predicting in the past about the future so we will use "WOULD" , so for this reason  E is OUT .
In C , distorted meaning plus "how stores can experience upto 50 percent" "Stores can experience decline but mot 50 percent" its modifier error --  C is OUT  
  D is CORRECT , its taking care of all errors mentioned here

Cellchat · Answer

One analyst of the liquor industry estimated that this year  a few  liquor stores  have experienced  declines up to fifty percent of sales  but predicted  that the industry as a whole  will have maintained  a volume of sales fairly close to last year’s.

The first past tense is because the stores are known to have experienced decline. As the decline has happened in the past, we can be certain. The conjunction 'but' allows a change in tense from past to future as the prediction is that at the end of the year, the overall volume of sales will be the same.

gmatassassin88 · Answer

GMATNinja   VeritasKarishma   DmitryFarber

I faced issue in understanding the meaning part w.r.t to 'Tense'.

Firstly:As per my understanding both estimation & Prediction was done in the past about 'this year'.However in the non underline portion verb 'have experienced' is used preceded by Estimated. Should not 'would' be used to predict about future from the past.Why 'have' is used.

Secondly, what is the difference btw the usage of 'would/will' after 'Predicted'.

Here 'Would' refer to future from past context.However please clarify the meaning difference when 'will'is used in place of 'would'

Please clarify on the same

Posted from my mobile device

emcheeks · Answer

The difference of the usage of "would" and "will":

Since the "would" in the original sentence is placed within the "that" modifier of "predicted" ( past tense ). Therefore, "would" is used.

In comparison (gmat questions):

Several Scottish doctors have claimed that many lives will be saved if there is a major cultural shift in attitudes towards smoking.
 
Here, the main clause uses  present perfect  "have claimed" --> still has an effect today. Therefore, "will" is used.

Responding to the dramatic affair, the minister of finance has prepared a speech warning the public that unless their ways are changed, dire consequences would soon befall them. 
Here,  present perfect  is also used --> "would soon" is wrong and should be changed to "will".

lakshya14 · Answer

Why "will" is incorrect? Isn't it referring to some future possibility?

ArindamLucky · Answer

IMO D

One analyst of the liquor industry estimated that this year a few liquor stores have experienced declining sales of up to fifty percent but predicted that the industry as a whole will maintain a volume of sales fairly close to last year.

(A) declining sales of up to fifty percent but predicted that the industry as a whole will maintain a volume of sales fairly close to last year

(B) declines in sales of up to fifty percent but predicted that the industry as a whole would have maintained a volume of sales fairly close to last year

(C) up to fifty percent in declining sales but predicted that the industry as a whole would maintain a volume of sales fairly close to last year’s

(D) sales declines of up to fifty percent but predicted that the industry as a whole would maintain a volume of sales fairly close to last year’s

(E) declines up to fifty percent of sales but predicted that the industry as a whole will have maintained a volume of sales fairly close to last year’s

year vs year's so A and B out

up to fifty percent in declining sales -- this is wrong because if something is declining then how to find 50 percent of that -- C out

Option D and E -- in E it mentions
declines up to fifty percent of sales -- decline of what upto 50 percent of sales? Not correct

Hence D is correct

Posted from my mobile device

EducationAisle · Answer

Hi  lakshya14 , generally speaking, when we refer to some prediction (future possibility) that was made in the  past , we use  would .

For example:  John said that he  would  work hard.

This sentence is also in the past ( One analyst of the liquor industry  estimated  ) and hence, the usage of  would  is justified.

zoezhuyan · Answer

GMATNinja ,  GMATNinjaTwo ,  VeritasKarishma ,  AnthonyRitz ,  CJAnish ,  MartyTargetTestPrep , AndrewN , VeritasPrepBrian

dear experts,
 I just wonder whether "declines in sales of up to fifty percent" in B is correct.
I can understand other points is incorrect in B,

please confirm.

thanks in advance

StudentIn2022 · Answer

I read "declines in sales of up to fifty percent" as though there are sales that are less than 50% and greater than 50%. The sales that are less than 50% are in decline. That's not the meaning the sentence is meant to convey. It is supposed to convey that sales in general for this industry are down 50%. I also read similar meaning issues with this phrasing in all of the answer choices except for D, and solved in 45 seconds. I was pretty surprised that there was not a lot of discussion on the meaning of the choices. Perhaps we are off. Hopefully a guru will chime in and will let us down easy. Below is my interpretation of the other choices:

A. "declining sales of up to fifty percent" is gibberish to me. There is a type of sale called declining sales and this type of sale can have different vales. Liquor stores have only experienced the variety that are 50% or less.
B. As discussed.
C. "up to fifty percent in declining sales" This to me is saying that the stores could experience different percentages of declining sales (and we should assume declining sales is a thing). What would this mean if the stores experienced up to 100% in declining sales? The structure and meaning of this part of the sentence doesn't make much sense to me.
D. Makes sense. The sales are declining by as much as 50%. Remember in C where I said what if the value was 100%? Well here it makes sense. That would mean some stores had no sales at all! This makes sense to me.
E. The stores have experienced declines? What does it mean to experience a decline? Sales are declining, declines are not selling. Poor meaning.

mk96 · Answer

GMATNinja  boss can you please explain if any of the elimination can be done basis "declining sales", "declines in sales"?
Are they unidiomatic or ungrammatical? I know there are other errors based on which these choices can be eliminated but wanted to get your quick views on this? Also, is there a need for to use of "would" over "will" in this case? Can we use them interchangeably or does the meaning of the sentence require us to use "would" over "will" in this case? Moreover, when we are saying in the present "estimated", then why do we say "have experiences", though in the non-underlined portion, but it should be "would experience" right if we are reporting an incident of past from today ?
Please let me know.

Any thoughts are appreciated. 
Kind regards, mk96!

mk96 · Answer

This was exactly my doubt, how come are they talking "have" !!
Does any one here have a resolution around this?
@karishmaveritas  egmat   ManhattanPrep ?

One analyst of the liquor industry estimated that this year a few

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